2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[wbrocks67]

Bucks CO flipped!

Still 28K ballots out too. If they go like they've been going (Biden ~77%), Biden will end up winning Bucks County by like 5 by the end (he's up 1 now)

[wbrocks67]

Bucks Co. just flipped. Now I want Lehigh and Monroe to flip. Great to see Biden turning the eastern counties of PA all blue.

I feel like both will after VBM. Lehigh especially has a ton of VBM out

[wbrocks67]

NYT times reporting the exact number of uncounted ballots in GA is 61,367. Trump lead is 18,590 going into this final Batch. Biden will need to win about 65% of this last batch to take the lead.

It looks like the vast majority of these are metro ATL (Fulton, Clayton and Dekalb) votes, with some Chatham mail-ins thrown in the mix.

I have a strong sense of how this is going to turn out but I'm going to refrain from making a projection. Let's just wait for the final GA SOS update!

CNN posted this (below) about 45 minutes ago.
Is there about 61K votes left to count, or 90K ? This could be important to who wins GA ...

Here's a look at when we'll get updates from local officials today:

    10:30 a.m. ET: Georgia's Secretary of State will hold a news conference. There's currently a 33,000-vote margin between Trump and Biden, and there’s around 90,000 votes remaining to be counted.

Well now Biden is down 18K compared to 33K, so 60K sounds about right.

[wbrocks67]

Both parties need a wake up call

NY is a red state without NYC
IL is a red state without Chicago

CA is to the left of NY and IL......

GA is going Blue, and Republicans put to trash gay marriage and abortion in the garbage.

Martina White and Nicole Malliotakis should be the template for the GOP going forward, Northern ethnic law and order, not Marsha Blackburn's rigid social conservatism.

What is going on in New York? Biden's margins look pathetically small for a Democrat, different websites have different figures (I have no idea why) but the Guardian has him only up by 12.7%. Nassau, Rockland and Dutchess are red, Trump's over 60% in Staten Island, over 30% in Queens and over 25% in Brooklyn. Have the postal votes just not been counted yet or is Trump really doing abnormally well in his former home state?

As for the future of the GOP, I 100% agree. Bible bashing and white grievance politics are a dead end for them long term, building on their gains with non-white voters (many of whom are not really liberal at all) is likely the way forward.

VBMs not counted.

These NY margins will significantly improve for D's in NY. They returned over 1.2 VBM ballots.

VBM took decades to count for primaries only.

Have no idea what's going on in NJ though. They zoomed 2.9M counted VERY fast, and now they've basically stopped despite a lot still being out

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1324366933412687875?s=19

Corey and Pam is the best they've got? Also what a f**king reality show style bullsh!t to have some "show" press conference literally right next to where people are counting

[wbrocks67]

Is Wayne County done reporting? Pretty incredible that Joe is at nearly a 3% lead in Michigan.

[wbrocks67]

Chester and Montgomery County are both done counting, generally speaking. They have counted everything that was received up until 8pm on Tuesday. However, there are still ballots outstanding that have come in after 8pm on Tuesday (that are allowed to come in until Friday at 5pm) that won't be added till later. So Biden's lead will likely be padded a bit more in both those counties at the end.

Montco was a +5% shift from HRC 2016 and Chester was a +7% shift from HRC 2016

[wbrocks67]

Atlas Timeline or 2020? - Josh Shapiro Saves Democracy

Shapiro flipped Luzerne County. He's amazing.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1324370600018792450?s=20

Terrible news for Trump in Pennsylvania! The media networks should just get it over with and call the state for Biden now.

They're probably waiting for Biden to take the lead in ballots counted.

Yep, it appears mail ballots are going blue even in super red counties. And what's surprising is Trumps lead is not very good in some red places (like Luzerne) that still have more mail ins to count

[wbrocks67]

It does seem that the numbers in PA have tightened toward Trump

Cohn saying “Biden on track” as opposed to “This likely won’t be close”

I know I know. I’m a worrier

you're not a worrier. you're a troll. mail in ballots have continued to get even bluer for Biden. You don't even provide accurate information

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1324374362561126401?s=21
Can Biden still take the lead in PA today without Allegheny?

Yes. But it's honestly unacceptable for them to just casually wait until tomorrow.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah if anyone quotes Bill Stepien in here... just don't. He knows nothing about anything.

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1324373013656207362

[wbrocks67]

Georgia SOS just announced by-county totals of remaining vote for Georgia.  Did we already know that information?  Sounded like there weren't very many left in Fulton.

We knew that. They said this morning there was only like 10-11K out in Fulton

[wbrocks67]

Georgia SOS just announced by-county totals of remaining vote for Georgia.  Did we already know that information?  Sounded like there weren't very many left in Fulton.

Yeah, I think that was already known.  It's been sitting at 98% on NYT's map.  

It said 96% right now

It feels best to ignore those for the most part.

[wbrocks67]

Wonder if many PA counties are waiting until noon to upload. They've been frozen for a while now.

[wbrocks67]

And looking at New England...I think it's safe to say the trends ARE real and 2016 was NOT a fluke.

In what way? NH, ME, etc all trended towards Ds after going nearly R in 2016

[wbrocks67]

13K vote dump in PA.

11,886 Biden (91.4%)
1,114 Trump (8.6%)

Trump lead down to 125K.

[wbrocks67]

New votes in Philly, Biden wins batch of 13k by about 11k, at least 87k left in the county to count.

Huh? It was 140K a few hours ago and they haven't really added that much more since then. Unless we are back to having portions *PROCESSED* but not *ADDED TO RESULTS*

Aka, 40K more have been counted but not added to results yet since this AM

[wbrocks67]

Joe is at 488K in Philly. There is *at minimum* 100K left to at least *report* in Philly.

[wbrocks67]

RE Philadelphia

As of right now, 266K mail in votes cast in Philly.

They day before the election, McDonald's website had 346K returned. 437K requested. So there is *at least* 78K out in Philly right now, but that's just the last count, not including election day drop offs or probably most of the day before the election, so there could be as many as 171,000 left to count in Philadelphia.

Given turnout, certainly seems closer to 171 than 78 (Biden just about 100K under Hillarys total right now)

[wbrocks67]

There is also 30K+ mail in ballots still out in Erie, which will likely flip it from red to blue.

[wbrocks67]

Biden took 74% of the last batch in GA, more than he needs again.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1324395537991311360

are you god damn kidding me? he hyped it up like most of NV ballots would be counted today. and honestly there is no excuse why all of them have not been counted since Tuesday night/early Wednesday

[wbrocks67]

Looks like we got some additional votes from Mecklenburg, NC. Trump's margin in the state now stands at 76,737 votes.

isnt that what it was before

[wbrocks67]

Seems like Biden is still getting way more than he needs in each update.

https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1324395856792064001