2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[wbrocks67]

Chester PA recent mail dump

Biden 24570 (80.8%)
Trump 5447 (17.9%)

50k mail-in outstanding in the county.

if all of these dumps are as pro-Biden as this, things are looking good.

[wbrocks67]

Is Susan Collins a lock to win re-election? Just woke up recently

Depends on how much of the vote is out in Maine. Do we know?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/nick_field90/status/1323997319176638466

[wbrocks67]

Ugh, NYT still hasn't called AZ for Biden, though it's now >98% in and he's up 51.0-47.6%. No way Trump makes this up.

Don't they go off of AP calls? wonder why they haven't yet.

[wbrocks67]

What is up in the Senate race in MI?

could be a random county that came in for senate but not prez. Lots of Detroit still out, Peters should be fine.

[wbrocks67]

Just out of curiosity...why are Dems still high on Georgia?  Trump has a 100k lead with >90% of the vote reporting, and NYT has Fulton and Gwinnett as nearly fully-in.  The only outstanding vote for Dems seem to spread out between DeKalb, Muscogee, Chatham, Richmond and Bibb, but these are all north of 80% reported already.

Biden probably closes the margin some, but him flipping it this late in the count seems very unlikely to me.   

There is like ~127K out just from Fulton and DeKalb. I don't think the % are taking into account that its all VBM.

[wbrocks67]

What's the holdup with NYT and Arizona? It's very obviously a Biden win. I don't know why they're not calling it at 98%

NYT now saying that just ~28K votes estimated left

[wbrocks67]

Philadelphia new mail-in batch

Biden 40984
Trump 3329

Biden wins these by 85%, approximately 160k uncounted mail in the county.

First batch this morning was 94-6, these are 93-7. Very good still.

[wbrocks67]

Philadelphia new mail-in batch

Biden 40984
Trump 3329

Biden wins these by 85%, approximately 160k uncounted mail in the county.

Ugh, wut? Biden is still trialing by half a million in PA. He's gotta find them somewhere. Otherwise, we may actually end up with the HORRIBLE 270 map if GA doesn't flip. That's giving me a lot of anxiety. I mean, it would be a great Hollywood blockbuster, but we have a literal fascist in the WH who must go.

There's still 160K out in Philly, 160K out in Allegheny, 50K out in Chester, 66K out in Montco. If those go 80% for Biden, that's 360K netted votes right there at least.

[wbrocks67]

Also, there is obviously an unknown number of ballots that arrived last night by 8pm.

[wbrocks67]

Don't want to panic, but new vote dump in PA, from 76% to 78% in, Biden not really closing the gap. Still down by about half a million. Holy moly, if this is 270-268.

There is 320K still out from Allegheny and Philly alone.

[wbrocks67]

Concerned about AZ at 86% of vote and only 93000 vote lead for Biden.  Same day vote--and where is the remaining vote coming from?

Isn't it all mail in vote that came in?

[wbrocks67]

fink nooooo

Huh?

Finkenauer lost in IA-01.

The House was pretty bad for Dems all around. We lost a lot of good freshman from Cunningham in SC to Horn in OK to Quetzalcoatl Small in NM. RIP FFs

Cunningham lost? Damn

How many seats will we have at the end of this?

We will probably have lost between 5-10 seats when it's all said and done (we're at 2 pickups and 7 losses right now but we have to wait on CA, NY etc). To be fair, they were low-hanging fruit (many of these districts would have fallen during a Biden midterm anyways) but still disappointing because we lost good talent

It looks like GA-07 will be a flip too, at least

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1324033062754160643

So we have a 4/5 shift in Northampton, 5pt in Lackawanna, and 4pt i Believe in Dauphin.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1324033062754160643

So we have a 4/5 shift in Northampton, 5pt in Lackawanna, and 4pt i Believe in Dauphin.

Seems like based on the numbers thus far there is overall a small shift in PA towards Biden in the rural areas from 2016

Yeah, in all the rurals that are done it appears that Trump either kept pace with 2016 or Biden got a little shift. Meanwhile in the bigger counties that are completed, Biden's at a 4/5 pt shift. Should be enough for a 1-2pt win.

[wbrocks67]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

These counties in South Texas have always had anemic turnout. If they're engaged, turnouts gonna boom. Trump's gain was a mix of persuasion and turnout out low propensity voters for him. But Biden's still going to gain votes if turnout increases that much.

It just seems odd bc Trump put no effort into TX (like he did FL)

[wbrocks67]

Pardon my french but, what the f*** is the hold up? Let's get a move on already it's 1 PM the following day with almost a complete stall since 3 AM last night.

I agree. It's good that WI is almost done, but I was really expecting GA to have updates by now!

and AZ, too. They haven't updated since late last night

[wbrocks67]

Biden now up nearly 50K in Michigan, nearly 1%.

Peters only down 7k now.

[wbrocks67]

Michigan:

Biden 49.7
Trump 48.8

[wbrocks67]

Biden now up nearly 50K in Michigan, nearly 1%.

Peters only down 7k now.

where are you getting this? its not updated on nytimes

DDHQ

Biden 2,630,415 (49.7%)
Trump 2,583,361 (48.8%)

Biden +47K, +0.9%

[wbrocks67]

Montgomery County, PA 2016: Hillary +21
Montgomery County, PA 2020 (so far): Biden +23

Montco still has at least 55K votes mail ins to count, so could jump to Biden +25 at least. Another 4 pt shift in a big county.

[wbrocks67]

Couldn't be prouder of my state. We've rejected this disaster of a President and ironically will kick him out with a similar to margin to his in 2016.

With WI and MI going for Biden, it's lights out for Trump.

I am also proud of my state. Not because we were important, but because we kicked out Cory and swung HEAVILY against Trump.

Yeah, CO is a major bright spot. Biden +14 is even above the polling average.

[wbrocks67]

Trump down to +84K in GA from +87K

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1324046952682704896?s=21

Aren't a ton of these mail ballots?

Also this keeps changing. First there was like ~280K ballots left in AZ and now its 500k?!

[wbrocks67]

It's also interesting that Maine polls were about correct on average. But was the Collins move a late one? A ticket splitting on a check for Biden? It's incredible to me that Biden would have a +10 lead and people would still want Collins in the Senate after everything she's done