2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[wbrocks67]

Wait am I reading this right - has Wisconsin not reported *any* mail/absentee ballots yet?

[wbrocks67]

For what it's worth, the exit poll has Biden winning Indies by +11 in PA. Trump won by 7 in 2016.

[wbrocks67]

Ohio's margin should have Democrats peeing their pants right now. It's almost exactly the same as 2016.

Most of the votes still out are from blue counties, so it's likely to tighten a smidge.

[wbrocks67]

AZ dumped so much and now just stopped? Also nothing from NV either.

[wbrocks67]

GA President might not be over yet, given the counting bias.

Is this board infected? I know I sound like a broken record but Christ on a cracker. Georgia is not happening. PERIOD. Write it down.

You do realize that the majority of ATL is out right?

[wbrocks67]

Philly dropped 65K new mail ballots and they were Biden 94-6. PA is gonna take a while.

[wbrocks67]

AP has called Arizona, but it's not showing up blue on their map?

How much vote is left out in GA? Is it enough to put Biden over the top?

[wbrocks67]

It will be immensely frustrating if Biden clinches in WI and MI only to lose in NV.

Well doesn't AZ pad us in that scenario?

[wbrocks67]

It's pretty crazy to see the white swing. Biden made major inroads in CO, AZ, MN, ME, NJ, etc compared to 2020.

[wbrocks67]

I'm more shocked about the house races tbh. It's almost as if the blue wave of 2018 didn't happen - where did all of those voters go? It's like they were mad and put Dems in charge and then totally reversed.

Or even Graham winning by 12 and Trump winning in South Carolina *more* than 2016? Like how?

[wbrocks67]

No more results from NV until 11am EST Thursday.

This is unacceptable. There's no excuse to just not keep counting when sh**t is on the line like this.

[wbrocks67]

It would truly be something if Biden won GA but he got good swings from the suburbs and in fast-growing places like AZ, and still was +3% from 2016, so it's going to be very close. But it would be really nice if they could end all of this for us.

[wbrocks67]

Do you think AZ will be called back like Florida in 2000? Just curious.

The AP called it though even after the Fox "retraction" drama? Don't know why it's now showing up on their map. Trump would have to make up ~100K votes ... how much is left there?

[wbrocks67]

From what the Philly City Commissioner is saying on CNN, I am starting to get slightly worried about both the city and the State.

Also, the city is now 350,000 - 105,000 with around 56%in
2016: 584,000 - 108,000

Right. That's about 455K counted now. Say it's exact turnout like 2016, that would be about 700K. That's still 250K more votes, and they most definitely lean Biden hard. The 65K batch last hour was Biden 94-6.

[wbrocks67]

From what the Philly City Commissioner is saying on CNN, I am starting to get slightly worried about both the city and the State.

Also, the city is now 350,000 - 105,000 with around 56%in
2016: 584,000 - 108,000

Right. That's about 455K counted now. Say it's exact turnout like 2016, that would be about 700K. That's still 250K more votes, and they most definitely lean Biden hard. The 65K batch last hour was Biden 94-6.

That's a 200K net gain.
He's down by 600K in PA.

Yes, and most of the entire mail/outstanding vote is Dem, especially in Allegheny + the suburbs.

[wbrocks67]

Can anyone TLDR on how much is out in GA and when its expected?

[wbrocks67]

I'm more shocked about the house races tbh. It's almost as if the blue wave of 2018 didn't happen - where did all of those voters go? It's like they were mad and put Dems in charge and then totally reversed.

Or even Graham winning by 12 and Trump winning in South Carolina *more* than 2016? Like how?

Well I suppose that just like everywhere we're focused on, states like SC also have a sizeable VBM vote to count which will tighten the margins

Well true this is the question too. It feels like a ton of these states could end up falling in margins as VBM continues to get counted

[wbrocks67]

Youngs may also save PA, if exits are true. They're giving Biden a +35 margin, while Hillary only got like +10 in 2016. Exits would have to be pretty off then, giving Biden a narrow win.

[wbrocks67]

The weird thing is if everything breaks for Biden like it should win 307 or 322 which is respectable

it would be interesting if NV, AZ, GA, MI, WI, and PA end up breaking for Biden and his win is pretty big with that. But that will all have to wait for retrospect

[wbrocks67]

Biden is at 62% on Betfair:

https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/11/04/the-betting-at-1136-gmt-nov-4th-2020/

this is surprising. the markets have been bearish on Biden since the getgo

[wbrocks67]

Montco PA still has at least 90K mail in ballots out, and those could be like 90-10 Biden judging by the first batch last night.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, in PA, major Dem counties still have lots of mail, and all counties are at least 80%+ Biden so far in mail ins.

84K mail in votes left in Chester, where Biden is winning 80% of mail ins
227K mail in votes left in Allegheny, where Biden is winning 81% of mail ins
90K-120K mail in votes left in Montco, where Biden is winning 88% of mail ins
~250K mails in left in Philly, where Biden was winning 90%+

[wbrocks67]

Is Wisconsin done counting? Or is there any provisionals/absentees outstanding? I know they had to be in by Election Day, correct?

[wbrocks67]

so what's going on with NY? are they just taking forever to count mail ins or was there a giant Trump swing?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1323958900060790784?s=20

Of course the last domino is Kenosha. The writers for this season are getting too cute for my liking

Don't we already know? Didn't Biden bank 10K votes from Kenosha a few hours ago that they haven't uploaded anywhere?