2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[wbrocks67]

Since I was wondering as well:

https://twitter.com/beckerdavidj/status/1322157491061444608

Would imagine this is the last day that Reps really get anything worthwhile out of NV reads. Without early in person Sat, Sun, and Mon, I imagine Dems will grow their lead.

[wbrocks67]

FLORIDA
Dems 3,130,430 (40.0%)
Reps 2,966,747 (37.9%)
Others 1,724,856 (22.0%)
= 7,822,033

Dems have a 2.1% lead, +164K.

Dems lead has not gone down as hard today and Thursday as it was earlier in the week. There is only 2 more days of EV with R-leaning counties, while D-leaning counties have 3.

[wbrocks67]

Besides Florida is there any problem with low black and/or Latino turnout elsewhere?

The article talks about how they aren't matching white turnout levels in Philadelphia and Arizona, but was anyone fully expecting that? It is a pretty known fact that voters of color don't trust absentee balloting and as we can see for good reason.

Sorry to go back to this but also, many minority voters wait until election day to vote as well. This all seems like a real nothingburger.

[wbrocks67]

Remember when he was saying Democrats weren’t gonna get there?

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1322316029347835905?s=21

LMAO, it's almost as if his entire fake narrative was predicated on the fact that the mail is slow some days! Who couldve guessed!

[wbrocks67]

Vote-By-Mail
Democratic: 2,033,800  (+641,787)
Republican: 1,392,013
NPA/Other: 1,023,952
Total: 4,449,765

In-Person EV
Republican: 1,746,360  (+527,513)
Democratic: 1,218,847
NPA/Other: 808,964
Total: 3,774,171

Turnout at 57% statewide -->

Given that today is the last day for EV for many R-leaning counties, but D counties have 2 days left, it looks like Ds will keep their overall edge in the total votes, which seems... against the constant narrative this entire time.

[wbrocks67]

PENNSYLVANIA
Dems 1,536,035 (66.8%)
Reps 520,199 (22.6%)
Other 243,159 (10.6%)
= 2.3M

Dems blow past +1M mark over Reps, with now over 1.016mil more votes returned.

Dem return rate is 78.9%, Reps only 66.1%.

[wbrocks67]

Florida now at 87% of 2016 turnout. It's clear there has been major Election Day cannibalization by both sides. Dems still lead by 1.4% and 116K votes.

FLORIDA
Dems 3,276,786 (39.5%)
Reps 3,160,735 (38.1%)
Other 1,856,594 (22.4%)
= 8,294,115

[wbrocks67]

Wait, are people really dooming about PA? This is our first year doing full blown mail ballots, and as of yesterday we were at nearly 75% return rate! And Dems are nearly 80%! Those #s are great! Not sure how you can find some type of bad situation there.

Not to mention, I would imagine that like in many states, most black voters are waiting until election day.

If anything, I would still be worrying if i was Republicans. Dems have now built a +1M lead and Reps are not returning their ballots as fast as Dems are.

[wbrocks67]

Wait, are people really dooming about PA? This is our first year doing full blown mail ballots, and as of yesterday we were at nearly 75% return rate! And Dems are nearly 80%! Those #s are great! Not sure how you can find some type of bad situation there.

Not to mention, I would imagine that like in many states, most black voters are waiting until election day.

If anything, I would still be worrying if i was Republicans. Dems have now built a +1M lead and Reps are not returning their ballots as fast as Dems are.

I think many are worried about the outstanding ballots.  Even though Dems have returned at a higher rate they still have more outstanding ballots.  If the election is tight people are probably worried that more Dems will put them in the mail and they will arrive late.

People have gotten the message though - no one is still putting their ballots in the mail right now. The state has been very good at vocalizing since last week to not mail it in anymore and drop it off in person.

[wbrocks67]

Anyone got a TL;DR on how Texas and Georgia are looking for Biden?

GA looks very good IMO. They are 93% of their 2016 result and this is the makeup:

GA: 56.8% white/43.2% nonwhite (white +13.6) - 93% turnout
2018 exit poll: 60/40 (white +20)

Now, this could be off a tiny bit, b/c apparently some white people may be in the "Other/Unknown" category in the EV, but even if you give it an extra 1.5, it's still a considerable amount less than white than in 2018 when Abrams nearly won. And many black voters traditionally wait until election day as well.

[wbrocks67]

New Mexico has 93% of 2016 turnout right now and Ds still have +14% in banked votes. If Indies lean biden, NM could be a bigger lead than many thought.

New Mexico
Dems 48.9%
Reps 34.9%
Other 15.9%

[wbrocks67]

Democrats lead in EV down to just 39K due to surging rural turnout, below 2016’s 45K and well below Ralston’s projected 55K that’s 2016 adjusted for population trends. The Democrats’ lead will likely grow as more mail-in ballots come in the next couple days.

You do realize that it's not over yet right? And Dems lead will obviously increase on Sun/Mon with no more early voting?

Also, again, people keep ignoring that NPA preferences might be VERY different this year.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like this one is over. The hubris of this campaign, not abandoning Florida a week ago when it was clear what was happening.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1322644765624672256

Given that Dems have an extra day on FL basically on Sunday, it appears Dems will likely have an edge in % turnout at the end of EV, which was *not* the case in 2016.

[wbrocks67]

Wow, Dems up by 6% in NC with nearly 2016 turnout is pretty amazing. And that's not even accounting for NPA.

[wbrocks67]

From yesterday: Dems increase lead in PA to +1.03M. Their return rates are still significantly outpacing Reps

https://twitter.com/Elaijuh/status/1322655058866167808

[wbrocks67]

It appears Dems will get back to over 100K+ lead on Reps tomorrow in FL, given that the EV sites are very Dem-leaning today

[wbrocks67]

With one last day of EV to go in mostly Dem-leaning places, and 8.7 million votes cast, Dems still have a +1.1% lead on GOP.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1322911513301159942

[wbrocks67]

Aww where did Buzz and Jessica go. Florida isn’t going the way you thought...must be so sad.

I’m right here lol

Why aren’t you posting about the numbers anymore Buzz? You were so confident a few days ago? Why did you stop all of a sudden? Whatever could it be?

Fine here ya go.  Most GOP counties are closed today fwiw
https://twitter.com/danumbersguy/status/1322887981104009218?s=21

Considering that doesn't include Miami-Dade and it's before Church service ends, those numbers look really good for Dems, right?

No, dems should be leading in early vote today, and by a significant margin. But it’s early. Let’s wait until tomorrow to judge. It’s possible dems haven’t turned out because of Church and no Miami-Dade.

Republicans should get pretty big turnout on Election Day. I’m hoping dems can keep republicans to only a 3% party registration lead at the end of voting. I think a 3% R lead or less would produce a Biden win in FL

There's no reason to expect a giant election day turnout from either side at this point. After today, FL will be about 95% of 2016 total turnout. It may be more Rep on ED, but both sides have cannibalized a ton of their voters.

[wbrocks67]

There are a lot of voters left in Florida — not anything close to what it's been in the past, but certainly enough to wipe out a 90,000 vote advantage

I mean, of course there is a ton of voters left, but that doesn't mean they are going to come out. We're already nearly at 100% of 2016 turnout. We're not going to have a magical like 3 million more come out of the woodwork on Tuesday. Turnout will be up from 2016, but it's clear a high majority of voters have already voted.

[wbrocks67]

What was the partisan numbers heading into Election Day in Florida in 2016?

Dems were up by 96k

Dems in better position now though, after cannibalization.

How many EV votes were in 2016? I'd rather be up +100K with 9 million cast than +96K with 6 million cast.

[wbrocks67]

Should I be concerned about those Florida numbers? I know that Biden can win easily without Florida just wondering.

We are nearly at 100% of 2016 total turnout and Dems still have party ID edge with a likely lead among NPAs.

[wbrocks67]

For all the talk about cannibalization in Florida the Republicans still have something like twice as many super voters left to vote as the Democrats (~300k vs ~150k). If anything its the STTP that's been cannibalized by mail in votes and reduced church attendance.

If Democrats bring their lead back up to around 120k in time for election day then the Democratic lean of the independent early voters could give Biden the edge, but otherwise Trump is in the drivers seat in Florida. But for the millionth time, Florida is lean Trump under normal conditions and he'll still probably lose even if he wins it.

How is that though? I thought Dems were turning out more low propensity/first time voters than Reps. So Dems should have more super voters left...

Also, there's no way of knowing who is in the "drivers seat" b/c we dont know how heavily Dem those NPAs are breaking. But you'd rather be Dems with 100% 2016 turnout achieved by ED and still with a lead...

[wbrocks67]

Any word on NC? I imagine Democrats would want to do better today, with Souls to the Polls and all.

https://twitter.com/mantlehog/status/1322909213971095552?s=21 a lot more people have voted as far as his last comment, so I doubt the gop is actually better off this time

Yeah his last comment is dumb. We're gonna have like 4.7mil as of tomorrow, versus 3.1 million last time. So GOP is down just a bit less than last time with... 1.6 million more people voted. That's actually really bad for the GOP IMO.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1323051357151125505

is this just in person or mail too?

[wbrocks67]

Wait, how the hell does he have NC going for Trump? Are people still using the "Well Dems were up more in 2016 in the early vote" thing? Even though we've had like 1.6 million more votes cast in early voting this year than 2016, and Dems *still* have a lead?! Also, not to mention, in 2016, Indies went for Trump, while this year they are more likely to break for Biden?