2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[wbrocks67]

There's no reason to believe that Election Day will be even more R though, when many of those Rs could easily be voting now in Early Voting, especially with turnout going over 2016's EV.

Not to mention, NPAs broke Trumps way in 2016, but if they break Biden's way this year, which it appears they are based on most polls, that changes everything.

Um...every single poll we've seen indicates Trump is winning the ED vote by a lot, certainly more than he did in 2016. This goes across pretty much all states surveyed. It also makes sense given that Ds disproportionately requested mail-in ballots compared to Rs and Ds generally have a much more favorable view of early / mail-in voting than Rs do.

The NPAs point is confusing to me. Hillary won by more actual votes than the registration gap would've indicated (-50k vs 250k actual lead), so clearly NPAs broke her way in 2016. Are you saying they are likely to break more towards Biden this year? That certainly seems possible, but what then would be your estimate for actual vote lead for Biden going into ED if Dems have a 100k registration advantage vs. a 2016 50k registration disadvantage? I cited 400-500k actual vote lead, but I suppose it could be more if Biden is winning by enough among NPAs and is winning some Rs.

We're not talking about all states. We're talking about FL which has a robust early turnout. It's just as possible Reps are cannibalizing their ED vote in FL with in-person early voting.

As for indies, what i'm saying is Trump won indies in 2016 in FL by 4%. All polls have Biden winning them now. So it's not an apples to comparison with the Dem/Rep edge b/c NPAs are probably going for Biden now vs Trump in 2016

[wbrocks67]

Pennsylvania hits 30% of 2016 total turnout.

Dems 1,275,436 (68.9%)
Reps 394,408 (21.3%)
Other 180,556 (9.7%)
= 1,850,400

Dems have +881K lead. Was +839K yesterday. Dems at 66% return rate, Reps at 50%.

[wbrocks67]

According to Ralston's model, if everything stays the same and as expected in Nevada, Biden will win by 6 points.

I trust Ralston, but NV is going to be wonky. It's not apples to apples. We're getting constant new updates of "live" votes with the early vote in person. But Dems are going hard on mail and the mail updates seem inconsistent from day to day (i.e. this day there is more mail delivered, etc.) So small or large updates could either be red herrings.

[wbrocks67]

PA #s should be big tomorrow. Today was the last day to "early vote in person" and the lines were huge in Philly + the burbs. The line at City Hall in Center City Philadelphia around 4:45pm was literally like 250-300 people deep.

[wbrocks67]

Georgia, Tuesday 5 PM Update:, 184,989 votes have been cast on Tuesday.

This includes 141,982 in-person votes and 43,007 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 2,111,512 in-person & 1,048,295 by mail, for a grand total of 3,159,807 (75.86% of 2016 total vote).

GA still getting lost in the noise. What is happening there is major.

[wbrocks67]

The Ralston stuff seems odd to me, especially since he literally says "pending mail count" - so yeah, uh, it's not surprising that Dems lost ground in Washoe and Clark in *in person early voting* since the majority of Dems are... mailing in the votes... and you're doing an analysis .... *without* the mail count that will likely help Dems?

Like I said before too, it's not an apples to apples comparison either. If the mail is delayed, or one day is a bigger count than the rest, that will easily make things look better or worse. If today was a slow mail day and not as many ballots processed, then obviously it's going to look bad next to the live daily updates from early in person where votes are being processed *that day* compared to god knows whenever the mail decides to move for the mail in ballots.

Like let's say the mail is backed up and for 3 days in a row, they don't process a whole ton of ballots. Well of course Reps are going to look great for those 3 days since they are voting in person!

I trust Ralston, but this all seems like important context that he's willfully ignoring...

Also: is this a dumb question or is Ralston not even taking account that NPAs will likely go more for Biden this year than Clinton in 2016?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1321378210144227330

So yeah, it really appears it just depends on what ballots are getting processed. For all we know there is a ton of Dem ballots out there just waiting to be processed b/c of mail delays...

[wbrocks67]

NC 10/27, day 12 early in-person vote:

Dem 61395 (30.1%)
Rep 78437 (38.5%)
Una 63842 (31.3%)
Total 203674

compared to day 12 in 2016

Dem 88695 (39.2%)
Rep 78099 (34.5%)
Una 59446 (26.3%)
Total 226240

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 1037903 (37.0%)
Rep 961435 (34.3%)
Una 799897 (28.6%)
Total 2799235

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1432590 (39.4%)
Rep 1122985 (31.1%)
Una 1068317 (29.6%)
Total 3614892

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 911767 (43.3%)
Rep 666472 (31.6%)
Una 529042 (25.1%)

Similar trend as last three weekdays, D/R split being roughly 30/38 among early in-person voters and total amount of single day voters going down a bit. Unaffiliated voters are also consistently making up more than 30% of single day vote, and a considerably higher number of unaffiliated voters have voted early compared to 2016 now (total early vote is 13% higher than 2016 final early vote total, unaffiliated vote is 27% higher). D vs R raw gap is now smaller than 2016 final total (301k now vs 304k final in 2016), but overall total is also 42k higher.

What was the final EV total in 2016 again?

[wbrocks67]

So total EV in 2016 was 3.19 million and Dem lead was +304k. Current EV total is 3.61 million (400K more and growing) and Dem lead is +310k. That seems pretty damn good to me.

[wbrocks67]

So total EV in 2016 was 3.19 million and Dem lead was +304k. Current EV total is 3.61 million (400K more and growing) and Dem lead is +310k. That seems pretty damn good to me.

Early vote is definitely better for the Dems than in 2016.
I don't know if that is enough, and I don't think anybody knows that.

Yes 100%. We'll see where it goes from here. I have more faith now that Dems have a higher leda with 400K more voters and NPAs leaning Biden. But we'll see where we are by early next week. Is NC's last early voting day SUnday?

[wbrocks67]

Florida up to 6.9 million. Dems have +246K lead. At this point, given the high turnout, I have to imagine that the GOP is cutting into its Election Day vote with GOPers voting early.

https://twitter.com/noahpransky/status/1321431325656711169

[wbrocks67]

Florida up to 6.9 million. Dems have +246K lead. At this point, given the high turnout, I have to imagine that the GOP is cutting into its Election Day vote with GOPers voting early.

https://twitter.com/noahpransky/status/1321431325656711169

I already asked, but just for good measure: can someone please kindly explain the purported phenomenon of "cannibalizing voters"?

Just in general? It just means parties are getting their votes in earlier and faster. Dems are "cannibalizing" their election day vote with vote by mail voters (i.e. more voters who typically would vote early or on election day are instead now voting mail-in), and I believe GOP is doing the same with a lot of their Election Day voters who are now already accounted for and choosing to vote early in person.

[wbrocks67]

It would appear that an underreported story here is that Dems have already hit their 2016 EV turnout with 5 days left while GOP is still 5% behind. Given FL Dems propensity to usually wait until the last minute, that seems notable.

[wbrocks67]

Also, much like Nevada, this could be a big driver in FL too:

There's been a noticeable drop in mail ballots this week, telling me voters got the message about mailing them EARLY.

The mail ballots being counted this week so far seem rather small. Things like this could easily change the narrative. We don't know if it's actual less people sending them in, or just a delay in processing/mail handling

[wbrocks67]

Anyone know what's going on in Tennessee? Their #s are pretty incredible too.

[wbrocks67]

GA so far

2018: 60% white/40% nonwhite (+20 white)
2020: 57% white/43% nonwhite (+14 white)

Given Biden doing better with Whites than Abrams possibly too, and many Black voters waiting until Election Day to vote, this looks very good for Biden so far.

[wbrocks67]

PA now at 32.3% of 2016 turnout.

Dems 1,354,624 (68.5%)
Reps 426,431 (21.6%)
Other 197,431 (10%)
= 1,978,486

Dem return rate is 70%, Rep return rate is 54%. Dem lead is now +928K. It was +881K yesterday.

[wbrocks67]

PA now at 32.3% of 2016 turnout.

Dems 1,354,624 (68.5%)
Reps 426,431 (21.6%)
Other 197,431 (10%)

Dem return rate is 70%, Rep return rate is 54%. Dem lead is now +928K. It was +881K yesterday.

Good lord, PA Dems are on fire.

Yeah, the return rate is what is most interesting to me. We all know Dems blew out Reps in terms of requesting ballots, but Reps are still lagging in returning their ballots. Dems seem to have gotten the message that the ballots need to be in ASAP.

[wbrocks67]

PA now at 32.3% of 2016 turnout.

Dems 1,354,624 (68.5%)
Reps 426,431 (21.6%)
Other 197,431 (10%)

Dem return rate is 70%, Rep return rate is 54%. Dem lead is now +928K. It was +881K yesterday.

Good lord, PA Dems are on fire.

I'm not convinced this is a leading indicator of how PA is going to vote. Yes, it's good that the Dems are returning their absentee ballots. But PA did not have no-excuse absentee voting nor early voting in the past, so this is pure cannibalization of election day turnout. PA did not suddenly turn into a one party D state. I'm still thinking Biden wins PA by around 6 but I'd hope to see something like 90%+ of absentee ballots returned, we don't want regular D voters not have their vote counted because they sent their ballot in late or something.

No one is saying this isn't cannibalization. Obviously it is, since PA voters have requested 3M+ ballots compared to like 100,000 in 2016.

The point though is that Dems are energized and Reps aren't. Dems have made sure to return 70% of their ballots and Reps only 54%. The fact that the difference is so wide makes me wonder if Rep enthusiasm isn't that high in PA.

[wbrocks67]

We still have a lot to go in South Carolina, but with the state at nearly 50% of 2016 turnout, this is the make-up:

2016 total: 74% white/26% non-white (White +48)
2018 total: 73% white/27% non-white (White +46)
2020 (so far): 67% white/33% non-white (White +34)

If that shift even stays remotely close to that margin, Harrison certainly has a good chance to win.

[wbrocks67]

Democrats & Republicans are the same.

ok bot

[wbrocks67]

PA now at 32.3% of 2016 turnout.

Dems 1,354,624 (68.5%)
Reps 426,431 (21.6%)
Other 197,431 (10%)
= 1,978,486

Dem return rate is 70%, Rep return rate is 54%. Dem lead is now +928K. It was +881K yesterday.

I think those numbers are still lagging the real numbers.  I can't find the article but the actual numbers were higher a week ago in some of the philly suburban counties and I still don't think they've been accounted for much less the new ones that have come in.

Doesn't PA update only on Fridays or something?

I think that's Minnesota or is it PA too?  I feel like they do update every couple of days it's just far behind the actual numbers in some places.

PA updates every weekday. Minnesota is every Friday

[wbrocks67]

FL. D lead down to 221k. More than half way to 200k since the morning. On target to reach 200k by end of the day. I'll update the graph next hour— au ng (@athein1) October 28, 2020

These types of posts really miss the point of what's going on in FL. No one is surprised at Dems lead. It was never going to hold.

[wbrocks67]

PA now at 32.3% of 2016 turnout.

Dems 1,354,624 (68.5%)
Reps 426,431 (21.6%)
Other 197,431 (10%)
= 1,978,486

Dem return rate is 70%, Rep return rate is 54%. Dem lead is now +928K. It was +881K yesterday.

I think those numbers are still lagging the real numbers.  I can't find the article but the actual numbers were higher a week ago in some of the philly suburban counties and I still don't think they've been accounted for much less the new ones that have come in.

Doesn't PA update only on Fridays or something?

I think that's Minnesota or is it PA too?  I feel like they do update every couple of days it's just far behind the actual numbers in some places.

PA updates every weekday. Minnesota is every Friday

Their numbers don't seem accurate though.  There have been articles about how their reporting is behind.  It would be nice if they got their act together considering it's probably the most important state this cycle.

Do you have the article? As far as I can tell, it's pretty up to date. I know they are slightly lagging some counties (like Montco) but not by much and they're basically just like a day behind.

[wbrocks67]

Florida VOTE-BY-MAIL (3:30 PM UPDATE)

Democratic: 1,928,569  (+625,663)
Republican: 1,302,906
NPA/Other: 941,189
Total 4,172,664

UNRETURNED BALLOTS:
Democratic: 752,478  (+185,507)
Republican: 566,971
NPA/Other: 503,435
Total: 1,822,884

https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

FL has drop boxes right?