NYT/Sienna: AZ - Biden+8

[wbrocks67]

Trump +6 in 2016 sample. Last time it was Hillary +1 sample and Biden lead by 9.

Oof. That means it's even worse for Trump than it appears.

[wbrocks67]

Just a reminder that NYT/Siena had North Carolina clinton+8 in late October 2016, Trump won it by 3-4 points.

how is that relevant to Arizona

[wbrocks67]

Hispanic/Latino - Biden +38 (65-27)

Maricopa - Biden +12

Aged 18-29 - Biden +42 (64-22)

*Pretends to be shocked*

There are very few states on which this forum has had worse takes than AZ. To name only the most obvious ones:

1. Biden's "Latino problem" will cost him AZ.
2. Sanders wouldn’t have been competitive in AZ.
3. AZ is far less likely to flip than WI/MI/PA.
4. Sinema won because she was a uniquely strong/moderate candidate.
5. Democrats have an impenetrable ceiling of 44%/45% in this state.
6. Trump will get a massive polling boost here after RBG's death because voters want a conservative SCOTUS.

Likely D.

I agree with most of this but I would disagree n Sinema - I think she actually was a really good candidate for AZ specifically. And that has borne out with her very positive favorability ratings