CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[wbrocks67]

Newer update:

Total ballots returned = 2,841,048
Dems 1,560,504 (54.9%)
Reps 654,891 (23.0%)
Ind/Other 626,179 (22.1%)

Turnout: Dems (15%), Reps (12%), Ind/Other (10%)

For comparison sake, on the eve of the Election 2020, it was Dems (50.9%) Ind/Other (24.6%) Reps (24.4%)

[wbrocks67]

Newer update:

Total ballots returned = 2,841,048
Dems 1,560,504 (54.9%)
Reps 654,891 (23.0%)
Ind/Other 626,179 (22.1%)

Turnout: Dems (15%), Reps (12%), Ind/Other (10%)

For comparison sake, on the eve of the Election 2020, it was Dems (50.9%) Ind/Other (24.6%) Reps (24.4%)

Ballots returned = 3,464,086
Dems 1,876,897 (54.2%)
Reps 825,972 (23.8%)
Ind/Other 761,852 (22.0%)

Turnout = Dems (18%), Reps (15%), Ind/Other (12%)

[wbrocks67]

Update from the graphic above - all %'s stay the same as the morning though

Total ballots returned: 3,540,353
Dems: 1,917,444 (54.2%)
Reps: 844,235 (23.8%)
Ind/Other: 779,309 (22.0%)

[wbrocks67]

I wonder how much of the total vote is already in. 2018 turnout was 12.5 million and 2020 17 million.

I would assume the turnout is a bit below 2018. Maybe around 11 million.

What was the final partisan breakdown of the early vote and final vote in 2018 and 2020?

Not sure about 2018, but

2020 final EV was 12.09M total ballots returned
Dems 50.9% (6.16M)
Ind/Other 24.6% (2.98M)
Reps 24.4% (2.96M)

which translated into a final result of Biden 63.5%, Trump 34.3% (17.5M total votes)

[wbrocks67]

This was also interesting - the guy who runs the Political Data site is also saying that as of now, the Indies who are voting are more Dem-leaning. This is from his Friday morning e-mail:

One thing that stands out in the early number is the 630,000 independent/other voters who have cast ballots – nearly as many as the 650,000 Republicans who have voted.  Of these, 592,000 are independents or confused American Independents, while the others are registered with minor parties.

To dive into this pool of Independent voters we can look at the breakdown of ballot returns using the “DemPlus” and “RepPlus” counts from PDI. These aren’t models, they are flags of prior behavior.  A DemPlus is anyone who is a Democrat, plus those who are Independents who pulled a ballot to vote in a Democratic Primary, have donated to a Democrat or were previously registered Democrat.  And, obviously, RepPlus is the same thing, but for Republicans.

Of the Independent voters who have cast ballots, over half meet one of these categories, with the current breakdown of 74% DemPlus and 26% RepPlus.  But there are also Independents who aren’t categorized but can be looked at based on their household party type – meaning who they live with.  As a rule, we expect independents who live with Democrats to be more progressive than those who live with Republicans.

Including those, we can breakdown the full independent vote as follows:

·         Independents who are DemPlus: 193,283

·         Independents who are RepPlus: 67,141

·         Uncategorized Independent, but live with a Dem: 128,205

·         Uncategorized Independent, but live with a Rep: 69,043

This leaves 134k of the Independents basically in an uncategorized bucket.  But, if someone asks you the partisan lean of these independents, the best answer is that they appear to be about three-quarters leaning Democratic.

[wbrocks67]

I’m seeing some Twitter chatter that non citizens and people living out of state are being mailed ballots

That is unacceptable even if rare

I mean come the hell on. How hard is it to control mail flow?

These usps workers have one job that isnt rocket science. I expect them to do it mistake free

Yes because Twitter chatter is always the most reliable chatter

[wbrocks67]

I mean "Turnout will favor GOP" is relative of course. Yeah, it will favor it if GOP turnout is better than 2020 or 2018 which it looks like it will be... but in a D+24 registration state, that still doesn't mean much.

[wbrocks67]

Update from the graphic above - all %'s stay the same as the morning though

Total ballots returned: 3,540,353
Dems: 1,917,444 (54.2%)
Reps: 844,235 (23.8%)
Ind/Other: 779,309 (22.0%)

First update in a while that Dems inch back up.

Total ballots returned = 3,796,496
Dems 2,068,520 (54.5%)
Reps 892,632 (23.5%)
Ind/Other 836,022 (22.0%)

Turnout = Dems (20%), Reps (17%), Ind/Other (13%)

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 4,094,635
Dems 2,216,125 (54.1%)
Reps 974,878 (23.8%)
Ind/Other 903,632 (22.1%)

Turnout = Dems (21%), Reps (18%), Ind/Other (14%)

[wbrocks67]

Politico.com article saying Democrats are scared of weak Latino turnout and slowly trending Republican as Newsom is compared to a stale Mexican Coke.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/31/democrats-latino-turnout-california-recall-508012

Article does have a Republican Latino political consultant saying he's seeing no change in data as far as how Latinos are going to vote, analysts are just hopped up about it.

I know people say the redistricting commission is independent, but this recall is going to lead to some changing narratives as far as drawing districts if some parts of the voting population are shifting.

The article also conveniently sites the one poll where Latinos were 50/50 on recall, and now the new SurveyUSA poll has blown that narrative out of the water. But of course, never let actual facts get in the way of a POLITICO "dems in dissaray" narrative...

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 4,094,635
Dems 2,216,125 (54.1%)
Reps 974,878 (23.8%)
Ind/Other 903,632 (22.1%)

Turnout = Dems (21%), Reps (18%), Ind/Other (14%)

Total ballots returned = 4,657,494
Dems 2,500,798 (53.7%)
Reps 1,122,577 (24.1%)
Ind/Other 1,034,119 (22.2%)

Turnout = Dems (24%), Reps (21%), Ind/Other (16%)

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1433109540115927046?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

[wbrocks67]

This recall is a joke.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/09/02/newsom-has-strong-support-in-latest-california-recall-survey-1390636

This should be news to no-one. 

I don't think it will be that wide a margin, but I think 2 things happened that helped newsom

1) elder is running on a platform way to the right of the state.

2) the mailing of ballots got democrats to realize there was an election.

I do think it is a bad thing in the long run for my state though. I think it is very reasonable to believe that one party rule leads to bad policy.

We saw that first hand in CA with that absurd AB5 law that banned people from seeking work as independent contractors. It messed up so many lives.

A GOP governor would at least lead to gridlock.

Gridlock helps literally no one.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 4,657,494
Dems 2,500,798 (53.7%)
Reps 1,122,577 (24.1%)
Ind/Other 1,034,119 (22.2%)

Turnout = Dems (24%), Reps (21%), Ind/Other (16%)

Total ballots returned = 5,054,661
Dems 2,699,178 (53.4%)
Reps 1,230,796 (24.3%)
Ind/Other 1,124,687 (22.3%)

Turnout = Dems (26%), Reps (23%), Ind/Other (17%)

[wbrocks67]

Also an interesting nugget:

Turnout by ethnic group:
Whites 27%
Asian 22%
Blacks 21%
Latinos 14%

I'm surprised by the strong turnout of Asians/Blacks relative to Whites and Latinos.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 5,054,661
Dems 2,699,178 (53.4%)
Reps 1,230,796 (24.3%)
Ind/Other 1,124,687 (22.3%)

Turnout = Dems (26%), Reps (23%), Ind/Other (17%)

Total ballots returned = 5,420,220
Dems: 2,898,394 (53.5%)
Reps: 1,312,542 (24.2%)
Ind/Other: 1,209,284 (22.3%)

Turnout = Dems (28%), Reps (25%), Ind/Other (18%)

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 5,420,220
Dems: 2,898,394 (53.5%)
Reps: 1,312,542 (24.2%)
Ind/Other: 1,209,284 (22.3%)

Turnout = Dems (28%), Reps (25%), Ind/Other (18%)

Total ballots returned = 5,730,338
Dems: 3,051,561 (53.3%)
Reps: 1,399,655 (24.4%)
Ind/Other: 1,279,122 (22.3%)

Turnout = Dems (29%), Reps (26%), Ind/Other (20%)

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 5,420,220
Dems: 2,898,394 (53.5%)
Reps: 1,312,542 (24.2%)
Ind/Other: 1,209,284 (22.3%)

Turnout = Dems (28%), Reps (25%), Ind/Other (18%)

Total ballots returned = 5,730,338
Dems: 3,051,561 (53.3%)
Reps: 1,399,655 (24.4%)
Ind/Other: 1,279,122 (22.3%)

Turnout = Dems (29%), Reps (26%), Ind/Other (20%)

Hey there, where are you getting this data and how does it compare to the eve of Election 2020?

https://www.politicaldata.com/2021-Special-Election-Tracker/

On the eve of Election 2020, it was

Total ballots returned = 12,090,534
Dems: 6,157,827 (50.9%)
Ind/Other: 2,977,358 (24.6%)
Reps: 2,955,528 (24.4%)

Turnout = Dems (61%), Reps (55%), Ind/Other (46%)

[wbrocks67]

It's almost as if Elder was designed as a joke to make the recall pretty easy for Newsom. I would not be surprised if this wakes up Dems even more an Newsoms margin is pretty great.

[wbrocks67]

Do Republicans see this as a blown opportunity?

I can't imagine. Even if they had a good candidate, we're still talking about a D+24 state here.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 5,730,338
Dems: 3,051,561 (53.3%)
Reps: 1,399,655 (24.4%)
Ind/Other: 1,279,122 (22.3%)

Turnout = Dems (29%), Reps (26%), Ind/Other (20%)

Small update

Total ballots returned = 5,890,491
Dems 3,124,920 (53.1%)
Reps 1,448,306 (24.6%)
Ind/Other 1,317,265 (22.3%)

Turnout = Dems (30%), Reps (27%), Ind/Other (20%)

[wbrocks67]

Larry Elder is the best thing that could've ever happened to the Newsom campaign.

[wbrocks67]

Larry Elder is the best thing that could've ever happened to the Newsom campaign.

Yeah, I think whatever chance the recall had of succeeding went out the window when he emerged as the leading alternative.

I have family here in Pennsylvania who even said "can you believe that crazy guy in CA trying to be governor?"

[wbrocks67]

Do Republicans see this as a blown opportunity?

I'm not a Republican so can't speak personally to it, but my take is that the emergence of Elder as the leading R in the race has turned it from one that was a long shot for R's into one where they have no shot whatsoever.  So in that sense it's a blown opportunity, but it was a pretty unlikely opportunity for them even with a good candidate.

Newsom and the dems would have done to Faulkner, or Cox what they did to Elder if either of those two were the front runner. just try to label them as some right wind guy and frame the recall as democrat vs Republican.
Do you really think anything would’ve been different? Elder was just the Ginnypig

I mean sure.. to an extent. But Elder has really taken this thing and made it his own because his beliefs and things he has said are SO fringe

[wbrocks67]

Small update

Total ballots returned = 5,890,491
Dems 3,124,920 (53.1%)
Reps 1,448,306 (24.6%)
Ind/Other 1,317,265 (22.3%)

Turnout = Dems (30%), Reps (27%), Ind/Other (20%)

Total ballots returned = 6,159,023
Dems: 3,290,338 (53.4%)
Reps: 1,490,420 (24.2%)
Ind/Other: 1,378,265 (22.4%)

Turnout = Dems (32%), Reps (28%), Ind/Other (21%)