Biden VP news megathread (pg 286 - been selected, announcement could be today)

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, I think it's either going to be Harris or Klob at this point.

[wbrocks67]

Harris said on Sharpton show she isnt a candidate for Veep, she is staying in the Senate. I believe what she says.

Its probably Klobuchar, she is the only one that hasnt denied Veep speculation

Yeah, and people who are running for president are saying they're staying in until they drop out 3 hours later. What else is she supposed to say?

[wbrocks67]

Cortez-Masto makes the most sense to me pre- and post-COVID19 pandemic politics.

Biden is underperforming with Latino voters, not black voters. Cortez-Masto helps in a critical swing state and the wider Sun Belt (Arizona particularly), speaks Spanish obviously and has a historic career, and in my view is a more charismatic speaker than a number of other potential running mates (Duckworth, Baldwin).

I think all sitting Governors are out. Nobody can afford to abandon their state when COVID flares up again in the fall. The bench wasn't strong in the first place.

Klobuchar and Harris don't add much to the ticket in my view. There is a reason they lost. Harris has a horrendous campaign and clearly was a micro-manager, completely shooting herself in the foot. Klobuchar couldn't beat Pete for grabbing moderate + Trump county voters. Granted, Joe Biden did horrible in the 2008 primary and still ended up on the winning ticket.

Bringing someone outside of the 2020 field of candidates can also be beneficial to unity because then other supporters don't feel jipped if it's not their candidate. If you pick Klobuchar or Harris, how do Warren supporters feel motivated? A "fresh" face can be more unifying and drive up enthusiasm.

Biden's not underperforming with Latinos, and there's no reason to believe he won't consolidate them in the General.

[wbrocks67]

Biden will regret locking himself in to picking a Female running mate.  His decision precludes Sherrod Brown and Cory Booker, both of whom could have helped him significantly.  As could have candidates with real substance such as Jay Inslee and Michael Bennet.

Now he's locked in.

I actually agree with this. He shouldn't pick a woman just for the sake of picking a woman. Cory Booker, Julián Castro, and maaaaybe Eric Garcetti should be considered.

'

Biden needs the 2018 coalition, and for them to be fired. They mostly are, thanks to Trump, but having a woman on the ticket electrifies the ticket in a way that someone like Castro, Garcetti, Brown, or even Booker couldn't really do.

[wbrocks67]

I don't get why people don't think Harris isn't progressive either. She's very progressive?

[wbrocks67]

Some clues:

1.  Biden has said he wants a running mate with whom he is "simpatico" ideologically.
2.  He wants someone who is ready to step into the presidency immediately if need be.
3.  He wants someone who has strength in areas where he is weak or inexperienced.
4.  He said a running mate who has experience being a presidential candidate is "important."

Elizabeth Warren fails badly on the "simpatico" criteria.  She and Biden have been arguing over the issues for decades.   She does well under the other three criteria.  Additionally, there is the problem of temporarily surrendering her Senate seat to the GOP due to the GOP governor there.

Tammy Duckworth does well on the first three criteria:  simpatico, ready to be president and contrasting experience (Biden has never served in the military).  However, she has never run as a presidential candidate.

Catherine Cortez Masto is similar to Duckworth.  She fits the first three criteria but has never run as a presidential candidate.

Amy Klobuchar is simpatico, ready to be president and has run a presidential campaign.  However, most would say that she fails the "contrasting strengths" test -- she and Biden are too similar.

Kamala Harris appears to fit all four criteria.

What strengths does Harris bring to the table in areas where Biden is weak or inexperienced.  I don't see what she brings to the table to begin with, much less in areas where Biden is weak.  I mean, I suppose one could point to the fact that she's an African-American woman, but Biden already has far stronger support in the African-American community than she does and everyone Biden is considering is a woman.  I don't see any upside to picking Harris, but maybe someone can explain to me what I'm missing here.

Because black turnout needs to be turbo-charged to beat Trump? Biden is already strong with blacks and suburban women/college-educated whites, but Harris is probably the one most to be able to turnout even more among those two groups, especially with the history making possibility of a black woman being VP.

[wbrocks67]

Abrams is a pipe dream and I don't know why anyone is seriously acting is if she's really in consideration.

[wbrocks67]

Klobuchar would be a Kaine style pick. Too white.

[wbrocks67]

At this point, like most people, I think it's gonna be Harris.  She has great rapport with Biden, she covers all his gaps, and it's becoming more clear that she's who he personally wants.

Except for the ideological gap. A Harris pick does nothing to bring Bernie/Warren supporters or those in their coalition on board. This was a mistake Hillary made with Kaine in not trying to shore up unity in the Party.

Harris is very progressive. But of course she's not good enough for Bernie people. No one is.

[wbrocks67]

I been expecting Klobuchar. My problem with her is she is too safe of a pick. To be honest she does not the charisma needed to lead a ticket. This matters more because there is a chance Biden won't serve a full term. Harris would be a better pick as she has the charisma Klobuchar lacks. Whitmer might work. Her handling of the coronavirus could show readiness. She is still a couple years in her term. Duckworth not sure about.

I think Klobuchar is more charismatic than Harris, she at least has Midwestern authenticity and did better in her presidential campaign while Harris seems inauthentic.

What the heck is Midwestern authenticity? Seems like another way to say inoffensive white woman. Kamala has more electoral benefits than Klobuchar. I would want the woman Dolores Huerta endorsed because of her strong background standing up for farm workers, someone who can go to Florida and relate to first generation Caribbean communities, who can talk to the burgeoning AAPI electorates in TX and GA, and double down on suburban white women. Klobuchar ain’t got it. Picking HER would be Tim Kaine tier.

How is Kamala Harris supposed to inspire so many people as a vice-presidential candidate when she couldn't do that as a presidential candidate?

Her campaign had way more energy than Klobuchar's, even near the end. Even in Iowa, which she never really connected with, she still had a massive operation and passionate fanbase - just look at the Iowa convention they had late last year.

[wbrocks67]

It's crazy that serving as Attorney General and Senator the biggest state of the nation somehow isn't exemplary anymore but rather just "establishment"

[wbrocks67]

The new Politico/Morning Consult poll also shows that a LOT of voters want him to pick a VP that has governing experience, which Abrams very much lacks

[wbrocks67]

Am I the only who doesn't think Warren OR Abrams has a realistic shot? Abrams is too inexperienced and Warren is too old and polarizing.

[wbrocks67]

honestly, realistically, I think it's down to Harris or Klob. No one else IMO, if we're being real here, has a realistic shot

[wbrocks67]

version of poll results above; looks like there's some text rendered on top which doesn't transfer with the graphic



Also worth noting that Whitmer is... not popular in Wisconsin. I've always thought the idea of elevating the (new) governor of a state that's faced the worst of the virus was a really risky decision and ultimately a bad idea. Could easily appear to the average voter (or the expert) like the state's poor response was her fault.

By the numbers: Black voters in Michigan and Wisconsin picked Abrams as their favorite hypothetical running mate for Biden, at 36% and 38%, respectively.

While Klobuchar is popular among voters overall in these states, she got just 12% support from black voters in Michigan and 20% from black voters in Wisconsin.

Harris underperformed with black voters in Michigan (22%) relative to her overall support in these two states, and she did 10 percentage points better with black voters in Wisconsin.

Warren earned the most consistent support among the group, in the low 30s among black voters in both states.

Abrams’ performance without being a sitting senator or having just run for president, shows potential to build a broad coalition and turn out voters.

I know "name recognition" and all but surely it's worth something that Warren isn't that far behind Abrams right?

Whitmer is the governor of Michigan, so why would Wisconsin #s matter? She's very popular in Michigan.

[wbrocks67]

Abrams isn't that well known, so it doesn't make sense that she's that high...

[wbrocks67]

Warren will not be VP. Once again, I don't think people realize how, whether it's right or wrong, polarizing she is to many people, especially to the moderates that Biden needs.

[wbrocks67]

Biden is never going to pick someone else who is 70+ years old. What are people not getting about this?

[wbrocks67]

It would be a bad look for Whitmer to ditch Michigan during/right after a pandemic for the VP slot imo

[wbrocks67]

I think if I had to put % right now, it would be:

75% chance: Kamla
20% chance: Klobuchar
5% chance: anyone else

[wbrocks67]

I think if I had to put % right now, it would be:

75% chance: Kamla
20% chance: Klobuchar
5% chance: anyone else

That's probably the right order, but I think the gap between Harris and Klobuchar is a lot closer than that.  Maybe 60-35.

You're right, it's probably closer to 60% Harris, 35% Klob, 5% someone else. Harris still with the edge. And 4 of that 5% may be Warren, and 1% everyone else. I just don't see Warren as a contender. They are not going to have two 70+ year olds on the ticket

[wbrocks67]

I think if I had to put % right now, it would be:

75% chance: Kamla
20% chance: Klobuchar
5% chance: anyone else

That's probably the right order, but I think the gap between Harris and Klobuchar is a lot closer than that.  Maybe 60-35.

You're right, it's probably closer to 60% Harris, 35% Klob, 5% someone else. Harris still with the edge. And 4 of that 5% may be Warren, and 1% everyone else. I just don't see Warren as a contender. They are not going to have two 70+ year olds on the ticket

You keep saying that and Pence and Trump are senior citizens as well.

And? *DEMOCRATS* are not going to have two 70+ year olds on the ticket. Pence is only 60, too

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ItsCoryB/status/1253464700861526016?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...

[wbrocks67]

When will people get it thru their head that Biden is not picking another 70+ year old for VP

[wbrocks67]

Whitmer *just* got elected in 2018. Again, it would look pretty horrible for her if she ditched the state that just elected her for her first term two years ago.