WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[SnowLabrador]

Barnes raises $2.1M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1544992119713959937

That's not enough. Granted, no amount of money is likely to be enough, but this doesn't inspire confidence in his chances.

[SnowLabrador]

One thing I don't understand: Why do people keep insisting Mandela Barnes is a bad candidate for being progressive? Yes, he probably won't win, but that's more due to the national environment and Johnson's incumbency/perceived authenticity than anything else. Also, Baldwin's just as progressive and won by double digits in 2018.

[SnowLabrador]

So according to FiveThirtyEight, no third-party candidates have qualified for the general election ballot. Is it too late for them to do so?

[SnowLabrador]

So according to FiveThirtyEight, no third-party candidates have qualified for the general election ballot. Is it too late for them to do so?

If not, helpful to Barnes you would think.

Hopefully. I'd love to see Johnson lose, as unlikely as it may be.

[SnowLabrador]

Phew! It's imperative that Barnes wins the primary.

[SnowLabrador]

Morning Consult approval ratings have been a bit dubious, but in the new Q2 senate report, should be noted that he had nearly the worst net approval rating of all 50 senators at -16 (37/53). He was only beat by McConnell (-31).

If that # is anywhere near close, he's in big trouble, even in this environment.

Johnson was even less popular in 2016, and he still won. That doesn't mean it'll happen again for sure, but it's not unprecedented.

[SnowLabrador]

My guess is 7-8 points. Wisconsin isn't flipping in this environment, and Johnson has historically gotten great numbers out of WOW; he should also improve in the rural areas.

[SnowLabrador]

Barnes has won the right to lose to Johnson. It's a shame, he seems like a great candidate, but you can't elect a Democratic dog-catcher this year.

[SnowLabrador]

Yeah, Johnson just handed Democrats a HUGE prize with that comment.

Not necessarily. Everyone already knew that was Johnson's position.

[SnowLabrador]

Honestly,
Is Mandela Barnes a strong candidate or not at all?

He seems like a decent candidate to me, but he'll have a hard time winning in this environment. A shame, too, Johnson sucks.

[SnowLabrador]

https://host2.adimpact.com/admo/viewer/2d7c9a36-8132-467d-8aab-77346e40ffc6

This ad of Barnes praising the squad and talking about driver license for illegal immigrants is why I always thought he was longshot against Johnson. This is a Bernie acolyte running in a state Biden barely won. Johnson will make this race a referendum on Barnes and he will win in the end.

Yes, Barnes was not the vehicle capable of taking advantage of Johnson’s weaknesses and extremism because he has his weaknesses of his own on that front. Maybe I’m wrong, but I expect Johnson to scare enough people to win again.

So voters are okay with Johnsons extremism but not a few of Barnes more liberal talking points? Come on now.

Unfortunately, the media has an insane double standard when it comes to how extreme Democrats are versus Republicans. That's what will allow Johnson to win a third term. That, and the national environment.

[SnowLabrador]

A new Marquette poll is coming out later today. I think it will show Barnes leading, but that doesn't mean he's going to win.

[SnowLabrador]

Barnes +3 makes sense if the end result is something like Johnson +6 (which is about what I expect.)

[SnowLabrador]

Even if he's trying to lose (which I don't buy at all), he might still win. Wisconsin's getting redder.

[SnowLabrador]

This is sickening. But I guess it's just like the deferrals in Never Let Me Go - it's easiest to come to terms with Barnes having no chance if you understand that he never had a chance. We didn't lose anything.

[SnowLabrador]

Either this race was never as competitive as public polling has shown, or Democrats are blowing it. They haven't been spending at all to counteract Johnson's massive ad blitz. What a joke of a party!

[SnowLabrador]

Why the heck did everyone drop out in the primary towards the end and endorsed Barnes? There were even some polls of Lasry closing in on him and he just gave up… This as big as a recruiting failure for Dems as AZ is for the GOP.

Lasry was a far worse candidate.

[SnowLabrador]

Why is this not in every single ad that Barnes/Dems are doing?!

https://twitter.com/TheOtherMandela/status/1576337675103383554

Because the Democrats are a broken-down dysfunctional disaster of a party. That's why Johnson is going to run away with this race.

[SnowLabrador]

I’m really skeptical that Barnes wins this. Literally every time I get in my car I hear another radio ad attacking him, and I’ve heard zero response from Barnes. I haven’t seen any attack ads against RonJon for anything-not about his stupid Jan 6th comments, or his vaccine conspiracies, etc. RonJon and his Allies have destroyed Barnes, and no response. That’s why the polls are widening.

Barnes announced last week that he launched a multi million dollar ad campaign against Johnson, so it's possible you're just not seeing it. I believe it was on abortion.

Barnes will need to use that $20M he raised to blanket the airwaves the rest of the way here to fight back.

That's an interesting strategy, to hold your fire until the last month and then go all-in. We'll see if it works.

[SnowLabrador]

This is the right line of attack to use against Johnson. However, the problem is that he started the attack too late. If Barnes had begun going for the jugular a month or two ago, he might still be in the game.

[SnowLabrador]

Ron Johnson has to be one of the biggest assholes in America after that bs he pulled in that 2nd clip. I mean, I hate the "say something nice about your opponent" questions as much as everyone, but it's a layup. It gives you an opportunity to seem human. Instead, Ron Johnson decided to be an asshole. Glad the audience gave him what he deserved.

What he truly deserves is to lose re-election, but that's not happening. I guess this is the next best thing.

[SnowLabrador]

This race is over. Barnes would be lucky to keep it within 5 points.

[SnowLabrador]

Interesting...

https://twitter.com/natashakorecki/status/1582079242808201217

These are things you do when you're very confident about your chances of winning.

I mean, unironically speaking, Johnson should be confident. He's leading in all the polls now, and since when has polling underestimated Democrats in Wisconsin?

[SnowLabrador]

The double standard is sickening. For supporting racial justice, Barnes is a "radical", but for all of Johnson's antics, he's still seen as more reasonable. And this is the state that reelected Baldwin by 11 points in 2018 (though, for what it's worth, I think she narrowly loses in 2024.)

[SnowLabrador]

The reply to Iran's Supreme Leader from 2015 probably didn't help, even if it's not so bad when you look into the full context. By far the biggest factor, however, is that he was running against a Republican incumbent in a red-leaning state in a red-leaning year. Even a far better candidate would have had an uphill battle.