NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Strong Candidate]

I think Miller seems to be heading for a double-digit lead. Not at all a comfortable margin for a district that Trump won by 49 points, but forcing Republicans to invest here in the first place is great. Less money to go to around for other districts like VA-02 and VA-07, where they might be caught flat-footed.

But, I was told that Ojeda would win by double-digits and the race was Lean D because Ojeda was so #populist and a June poll showed him leading. Anyway, here's why Bevin is an underdog in 2019.

[Strong Candidate]

1. This is a poll conducted by landline and has had a rather shaky history.

2. The poll isnt even done yet.

3. The campaign season is starting

I love how Atlas thinks that a race is in their corner due to polling, and liking the candidate, and yet they think its titanium R when they get a poll that is slightly unfavorable(Im looking at you, Wallace haters!). Anyway, its clear that Miller will probably finish above Ojeda in this poll, but, as I stated before, this is not some god-tier level polling, and the part where voters actually care is coming up.

The poll does include cell phones; they actually called more cell phones than landlines! Anyway, I think the problem here is that West Virginia Democrats pretty much always fade down the stretch as the campaign heats up, so the fact that Ojeda is already down even as campaign season is starting is really bad news for him (unless the poll suddenly becomes pro-Ojeda in the last 120 responses). Miller also has lower name recognition, so she's more likely to gain from a vigorous campaign season.

[Strong Candidate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1039595834365681669

Guys, these polls aren't using a 2014 electorate.

[Strong Candidate]

TN and TX were obviously long shots from the get-go, but have we forgotten that these polls have an obvious R-lean? It gave Andy Barr a one-point lead over McGrath and every other poll, internal and public, have shown McGrath up.

Say what? There were two other recent polls that had Barr ahead. Yeah, they were R internals, but they count, per your "internal and public criteria." The only other nonpartisan poll of the race had it as a tie. McGrath has had solid leads only in Democratic internals, and even her own internal had her trailing in August, not long before the NYT poll was taken. I think she wins, but come on.