who do you THINK will be the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee?

[JSojourner]

A few things --

First -- anyone who says Webb lacks the necessary experience isn't thinking clearly.  Webb was Secretary of the Navy and is more than prepared to be Commander in Chief.  He has also stated publicly, on NPR's Diane Rehm show, that he regrets his remarks about women in the military and no longer believes that.  I know, I know -- doesn't mean that will make it go away.  But he's on the record.

Second --  it won't be Webb.  Even with a Democratic Governor, Obama cannot risk taking a friendly Democrat out of the Senate.  If Webb won the Vice-Presidency and Kaine appointed another Democrat, there's a very good chance the seat would swing back to the Republicans in the next election.  And by that time, Obama may need all the help he can get in the legislature.

I have said from the beginning that is should be Biden and probably will be Biden.  I still think that, though with less conviction.  Much will depend on who Obama has in mind for Secretary of State.  If he thinks he can get Sam Nunn or even Republican Dick Lugar to be in charge at State, then Biden would be VP.  But if not, you can bet Biden will be the top dog at Foggy Bottom.  So who then, for VP?

I'd expect an older white male, as many of you have already said.  Sam Nunn would not be a bad choice at all.  His foreign policy gravitas is proven.  He is a conservative Democrat from the South.  (No, he would not swing Georgia!)  I previously said Dick Gephardt made sense.  But one of you pointed out to me that Gephardt co-sponsored the legislation authorizing The Decider to make war on Iraq.  To pair him on a ticket with Obama might look awkward.  Though I think he'd be sensational as VP.

The one name to keep in mind in this process is Dick Cheney.  Think back to 2000 and remember how extremely hesitant independents and even many Republicans were about George W. Bush.  A one-term Governor with zero foreign policy or military experience...a guy who could not name the heads of state in some pretty prominent countries...Americans were antsy.  They didn't like the thought of a third Clinton term (which was how Gore was viewed).  But Bush suffered from a lack of experience. 

What calmed people down?  Two things:  Bush could lean on his father and his father's friends for counsel and advice.  (He may not have done so after all, but we thought he would.)  And Bush chose Dick Cheney to be his running mate.  Cheney was a longtime Congressman and Secretary of Defense.  He was a key guy in the first Gulf War.  Americans could breathe easier.  (or so we thought)

So Obama needs to find the same kind of running mate.  Someone who will not frighten or perplex Independents and fair minded Republicans who could swing D in this cycle.  If he picks an uber liberal, he's toast.  He doesn't have to go out and get Ben Nelson to run with him, but the VP should be a moderate or, at the very least, a social liberal with more moderate foreign policy positions. 

[JSojourner]

Second --  it won't be Webb.  Even with a Democratic Governor, Obama cannot risk taking a friendly Democrat out of the Senate.  If Webb won the Vice-Presidency and Kaine appointed another Democrat, there's a very good chance the seat would swing back to the Republicans in the next election.  And by that time, Obama may need all the help he can get in the legislature.

I think you are vastly overestimating the extent to which Obama, or any president or potential president, would wring his hands over the *hypothetical* loss of a single Senate seat.  Remember, back in 1993, Bill Clinton put a US Senate seat in jeopardy of switching to the GOP by picking Lloyd Bentsen to be **Secretary of the Treasury**.  And you're telling me that Obama is going to pass on someone to be his running mate simply because whoever Kaine chooses to replace Webb might hypothetically lose his or her reelection bid two years down the line?  That doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

You may be right.  All I know is, if Obama could tap a VP with solid foreign policy credentials, who matched up well with him demographically, and not lose or even put at risk a single Senate seat, then he should do it.  He'll need a strong majority for years to come.

[JSojourner]

You may be right.  All I know is, if Obama could tap a VP with solid foreign policy credentials, who matched up well with him demographically, and not lose or even put at risk a single Senate seat, then he should do it.  He'll need a strong majority for years to come.

If everything else was equal, then of course he'd make the pick that's marginally electorally safer for the party's margin in the Senate.  But how often is everything else equal?  I just can't imagine that you'll have a situation in which Obama will be choosing between two or more options who are so equal in their appeal that the hypothetical loss of a Senate seat in two years becomes the deciding factor.

True enough, Mord.  And you're right about everything else being equal...even things such as personal chemisty might enter into it.  I mean, it's not a prerequisite that the two candidates like each other, but it's a factor some top of the ticket nominees consider.  Great points, guy.