who do you THINK will be the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee?

[© tweed]

quite a long list as the market is spread out

[Math]

Ted Strickland.

[Spaghetti Cat]

Strickland said today that he would absolutely not accept the VP offer and doesn't want anything to do with it.

[Eraserhead]

I think Webb is the current frontrunner.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I hope it's Webb. Then we'd have two really inexperienced legislators on one ticket!

[exopolitician]

Damn! Just as I was warming up to the thought of Webb being on the ticket...something has popped up about him and his obsession with the Confederacy? wtf?

[Boris]

Jim Webb: Maybe
Hillary Clinton: No
Kathleen Sebelius: Maybe
Brian Schweitzer: Maybe
Ed Rendell: No
Chuck Hagel: No
Michael Bloomberg: No
Bill Richardson: Maybe
Claire McCaskill: No
Tim Kaine: Maybe
Mark Warner: No
Wesley Clark: Doubt it
John Edwards: No
Evan Bayh: No
Joe Biden: Maybe
Dick Gephardt: No
Al Gore: No

[Lincoln Republican]

Obama/Webb

An untested inexperienced first term Senator with no national security credentials and a cranky middle aged first term Senator who flies too easily off the handle and alienates women.

Yes, a great pick for Obama.

I will pick as Obama's Vice Presidential running mate Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana.

I realize Illinois and Indiana are neighboring states, but does a Democratic ticket from Arkansas and Tennessee ring a bell?

My other pick is Senator Chris Dodd of Connecticut.

[Boris]

I would think that the perfect VP for Obama would be something like this:

-at least 10-15 years of what the media deems "experience"
-at most 60-65 years old to have viability as a successor in 2016
-White or Bill Richardson
-Either opposition to or no record of supporting the Iraq War

And then there's the standard "don't embarrass the ticket" qualities and lack of skeletons in the closet criteria.

[HardRCafé]

Webb is an awesome way to stick it to women already angry Hillary lost.  But probably bad strategy.

[charltonNick]

why would Webb do badly with women?

[Iosif is a COTHO]

why would Webb do badly with women?

He wrote an article a while back saying women shoudn't be in the military. Plus he's generally a bit boorish.


I have a hunch it'll be Wes Clark.

[opebo]

Should be Bill Richardson.  Webb's a bad choice. 

[exopolitician]

They all seem like bad choices. Ive gone from being lean Webb to TOTALLY undecided.

[Hash]

Al Gore for VP again!

[HardRCafé]

why would Webb do badly with women?

He wrote an article a while back saying women shoudn't be in the military.

Women Can't Fight

[Person Man]

What about Tim Kaine?

[Franzl]

I think it will be Joe Biden, although I would prefer Kathleen Sebelius.

[skoods]

I say absolutely no to Tim Kaine as he's pro life. I say absolutely no to Sebellius because she was truly unremarkable during the SOTU response and because I believe it would piss off the Hillary supporters more (not to mention she brings nothing to the ticket politically). I say no to Webb because of his political inexperience and his past alienation of women.

I say yes to Evan Bayh and Hillary Clinton.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Brian Schweitzer or Kathleen Sebelius

[JSojourner]

A few things --

First -- anyone who says Webb lacks the necessary experience isn't thinking clearly.  Webb was Secretary of the Navy and is more than prepared to be Commander in Chief.  He has also stated publicly, on NPR's Diane Rehm show, that he regrets his remarks about women in the military and no longer believes that.  I know, I know -- doesn't mean that will make it go away.  But he's on the record.

Second --  it won't be Webb.  Even with a Democratic Governor, Obama cannot risk taking a friendly Democrat out of the Senate.  If Webb won the Vice-Presidency and Kaine appointed another Democrat, there's a very good chance the seat would swing back to the Republicans in the next election.  And by that time, Obama may need all the help he can get in the legislature.

I have said from the beginning that is should be Biden and probably will be Biden.  I still think that, though with less conviction.  Much will depend on who Obama has in mind for Secretary of State.  If he thinks he can get Sam Nunn or even Republican Dick Lugar to be in charge at State, then Biden would be VP.  But if not, you can bet Biden will be the top dog at Foggy Bottom.  So who then, for VP?

I'd expect an older white male, as many of you have already said.  Sam Nunn would not be a bad choice at all.  His foreign policy gravitas is proven.  He is a conservative Democrat from the South.  (No, he would not swing Georgia!)  I previously said Dick Gephardt made sense.  But one of you pointed out to me that Gephardt co-sponsored the legislation authorizing The Decider to make war on Iraq.  To pair him on a ticket with Obama might look awkward.  Though I think he'd be sensational as VP.

The one name to keep in mind in this process is Dick Cheney.  Think back to 2000 and remember how extremely hesitant independents and even many Republicans were about George W. Bush.  A one-term Governor with zero foreign policy or military experience...a guy who could not name the heads of state in some pretty prominent countries...Americans were antsy.  They didn't like the thought of a third Clinton term (which was how Gore was viewed).  But Bush suffered from a lack of experience. 

What calmed people down?  Two things:  Bush could lean on his father and his father's friends for counsel and advice.  (He may not have done so after all, but we thought he would.)  And Bush chose Dick Cheney to be his running mate.  Cheney was a longtime Congressman and Secretary of Defense.  He was a key guy in the first Gulf War.  Americans could breathe easier.  (or so we thought)

So Obama needs to find the same kind of running mate.  Someone who will not frighten or perplex Independents and fair minded Republicans who could swing D in this cycle.  If he picks an uber liberal, he's toast.  He doesn't have to go out and get Ben Nelson to run with him, but the VP should be a moderate or, at the very least, a social liberal with more moderate foreign policy positions. 

[Mr. Morden]

Second --  it won't be Webb.  Even with a Democratic Governor, Obama cannot risk taking a friendly Democrat out of the Senate.  If Webb won the Vice-Presidency and Kaine appointed another Democrat, there's a very good chance the seat would swing back to the Republicans in the next election.  And by that time, Obama may need all the help he can get in the legislature.

I think you are vastly overestimating the extent to which Obama, or any president or potential president, would wring his hands over the *hypothetical* loss of a single Senate seat.  Remember, back in 1993, Bill Clinton put a US Senate seat in jeopardy of switching to the GOP by picking Lloyd Bentsen to be **Secretary of the Treasury**.  And you're telling me that Obama is going to pass on someone to be his running mate simply because whoever Kaine chooses to replace Webb might hypothetically lose his or her reelection bid two years down the line?  That doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

[JSojourner]

Second --  it won't be Webb.  Even with a Democratic Governor, Obama cannot risk taking a friendly Democrat out of the Senate.  If Webb won the Vice-Presidency and Kaine appointed another Democrat, there's a very good chance the seat would swing back to the Republicans in the next election.  And by that time, Obama may need all the help he can get in the legislature.

I think you are vastly overestimating the extent to which Obama, or any president or potential president, would wring his hands over the *hypothetical* loss of a single Senate seat.  Remember, back in 1993, Bill Clinton put a US Senate seat in jeopardy of switching to the GOP by picking Lloyd Bentsen to be **Secretary of the Treasury**.  And you're telling me that Obama is going to pass on someone to be his running mate simply because whoever Kaine chooses to replace Webb might hypothetically lose his or her reelection bid two years down the line?  That doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

You may be right.  All I know is, if Obama could tap a VP with solid foreign policy credentials, who matched up well with him demographically, and not lose or even put at risk a single Senate seat, then he should do it.  He'll need a strong majority for years to come.

[auburntiger]

I'm not a Dem, but if I were Obama, I would pick a moderate governor of a swing state. If Obama intends to make this election about the economy as he has stated, he'd be wise to pick an older white male. I voted Rendell (he'll also help swing PA), but there are alot more to choose from than just him.

[Mr. Morden]

You may be right.  All I know is, if Obama could tap a VP with solid foreign policy credentials, who matched up well with him demographically, and not lose or even put at risk a single Senate seat, then he should do it.  He'll need a strong majority for years to come.

If everything else was equal, then of course he'd make the pick that's marginally electorally safer for the party's margin in the Senate.  But how often is everything else equal?  I just can't imagine that you'll have a situation in which Obama will be choosing between two or more options who are so equal in their appeal that the hypothetical loss of a Senate seat in two years becomes the deciding factor.