Election Day Tips (user search)
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Author Topic: Election Day Tips  (Read 1170 times)
Roll Roons
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« on: October 23, 2020, 08:10:57 PM »

As far as following results, this is a good tip:

Block every website on your computer except for the 2016 Florida results and this year's Florida results as they come in. Florida is one of the only swing states we're confident the vast majority of ballots will be counted on election night, and quickly.

If Biden wins Florida he's won the presidency, if Trump wins Florida narrowly it's gonna be close, if Trump wins it in a blowout he's been reelected. But beyond that, specific regions in Florida can inform you of what's happening in different regions of the country as a whole. The I-4 corridor and Miami-Dade will clue you in how Hispanics trended; Pinellas and counties north, as well as Brevard and Volusia, are WWC indicators; Broward, Palm Beach, and Seminole will hint at any suburban trends.

I plan to ignore everything except for Florida given the vast uncertainty over how/when absentees will be counted and the disparity in voting methods between Democrats and Republicans. Exhibit A: NY-27 special.

Florida and North Carolina count quickly, but it's hard to say exactly how much we'll know from other swing states, especially Pennsylvania. But if Biden wins both, it doesn't matter because he's almost certainly over 270. In general, I think we'll have a good idea of who wins the presidency and Senate by the end of the night. The House is almost certainly going to stay blue, but certain individual races will likely take some time to be called.
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