Tips for watching election night like a pro

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm pretty new to actually watching election nights in depth. I wasn't alive for 2004, don't remember 2008 or 2012, and wasn't interested in politics in 2016. I watched 2018 but that was an off year. I'm curious to hear what people here have to say. All I really know is that FL and NC tend to count ballots relatively fast, so look how they fall. What should I be looking for on election night early on to see who's favored?

[Boobs]

Like a pro? Start drinking early in the day. Have champagne (in case you win) and vodka (in case you lose) on hand. Snacks are good, start with the healthy stuff (crudités, grapes, cheese, etc) and break out the junk later if you're getting nervous.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Like a pro? Start drinking early in the day. Have champagne (in case you win) and vodka (in case you lose) on hand. Snacks are good, start with the healthy stuff (crudités, grapes, cheese, etc) and break out the junk later if you're getting nervous.

I'm only 15 so I guess I can't be a pro then, but noted for 2024.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Keep your hopes low, and your attention high.

[Roll Roons]

In terms of the earliest indicators, Trump is probably in trouble if Indiana isn't called for him at poll closing.

[It’s so Joever]

Drink a shot everytime Trump (or whoever) wins a swing state (any state within ten points)
Make sure you are drinking strong stuff (if you don’t have access to alcohol, you can replace with cough syrup)
Either you are somewhat happy with the results, are inebriated, or if you are lucky, you die of alcohol poisoning!

(PSA: Don’t do this for real I don’t want to get arrested, this is a f**king joke.)

In all seriousness, don’t be like Atlas and overthink every detail. Just let it roll in and hope for the best. It’s your night to celebrate/mope, do what you want with it!

[ProgressiveModerate]

In terms of the earliest indicators, Trump is probably in trouble if Indiana isn't called for him at poll closing.

That seems to be a good general rule of thumb, but what if mail ballots make calling IN take a long time, even if Trump ends up doing very well amongst Hoosiers?

[TML]

When KY reports its results, note the margins in its rural counties. In 2016, the bottom really fell out for Hillary in rural KY, which in retrospect was an early indication of trouble for her nationally. If margins in those areas return to 2012 levels (or further left), that would be a good sign for Biden.

[Use Your Illusion]

Make your own map, color in as you go. Watch the returns on swing states and note that if the rust belt doesn't immediately go for Biden it's not necessarily time to panic. If Biden wins MI start praying for FL... if that looks likely he's winning it all

[WD]

-Look at the margins in rural IN and KY, if Trump is doing just a little bit worse than 2016 he likely loses

-Look at the margins/numbers in the I-4 corder in FL. If Biden is getting 41-45% in places like Pasco and Polk counties he likely wins the state and the nation as a whole. He also needs to match Clinton’s number in Broward, Palm Beach, and Miami-Dade. Lastly he needs to win Pinellas and Hillsborough by 6< points. Another indication is if he’s winning Seminole and Duval by 2-4. Lastly if places like Volusia are within single digits, Florida is Biden’s to lose.

-In NC, look at the turnout and margins in the urban areas, if its better than Clinton thats a good sign. If the suburbs swing towards him (places like Union or Johnston counties) by 3-4 points then Biden’s favored.  Look at the margins in the rural areas, places like Bladen County, Columbus County and Robeson county. These areas swung hard from Obama to Trump. If Biden gets in the mid-to upper 40s in those counties and outperforms Clinton by 2-4, then he likely wins. Another Important thing is to look at the rural western counties that lie in between Bumcome and Guilford Counties (Greensboro). If Biden comes close too or cracks 30% in some of these  then he likely wins the state as a whole. Overall, Biden needs to improve by 3-5% in the rurals to win.

[Ferguson97]

Have CNN and MSNBC at the ready, and it set it up to switch between the two with the "last" button on your remote.

Have these tabs open on your browser: 538, NYTimes, Politico, Associated Press, and Twitter.

Have 270towin open, and fill in the obvious "never gonna flip" states like Idaho, California, etc. Fill in all the other states as they're called.

If you're of legal age, have a lot of liquor.

Be prepared that early results will very likely heavily favor Trump due to voting patterns. Mail-in ballots will take a little longer to count.

Florida is key. They count quickly and early, so based on Florida trends we can likely know who wins. If Biden wins Florida, then he obviously wins the election.

[Crumpets]

For 2018 I had CNN on tv (my only option), had the NYT and 538 pages open on my computer, and was also on Atlas and AAD. That way, when 538 was freaking out and telling us that there was a 50+% chance of Republicans holding the house, I had at least three other sources telling me otherwise.

[WD]

Also, based on my short time here so far, I would assume it’s best to stay off atlas during election night.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have 90 days to ED and we are gonna have outstanding ballots due to VBM and legal challenges,  the ED isnt gonna be over in one day, stop making threads like this

[W]

This race is a bit peculiar because of mail-in but if Florida is called for Biden, it is over. If it's called for Trump, he's doing better than expected.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I'd recommend MSNBC because they often give a clearer indication of where the race stands at poll closing.  Instead of simply saying a state is too early to call, they may say "Too early to call, but ________ has a lead."  (As in not a lead in the raw vote, but a lead in their model.)  Not infallible, of course, a lot of those calls were off in 2016 (Ohio being "too close to call," for example, when Trump won by 8 ).  Either way, though, gives you something to take note of early on.  I remember in 2016 being really excited when Georgia was called as "too close to call" at poll closing rather than too early to call (and Georgia did end up being fairly competitive...only problem was that it wasn't a sign of a Democratic wave nationally).

[South Dakota Democrat]

In terms of the earliest indicators, Trump is probably in trouble if Indiana isn't called for him at poll closing.

That seems to be a good general rule of thumb, but what if mail ballots make calling IN take a long time, even if Trump ends up doing very well amongst Hoosiers?

If it's clear early on, they'll call the state regardless of whether much (or any, if it's really clear based on exit polls) of the vote is in.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Also, based on my short time here so far, I would assume it’s best to stay off atlas during election night.

It'll probably crash anyway.

[soundchaser]

That way, when 538 was freaking out and telling us that three was a 50+% chance of Republicans holding the house, I had at least three other sources telling me otherwise.

God, that was the *worst.* I was watching the returns come in live at work and I had to go hide in the bathroom at that point and get my breathing under control.

[Rand]

We have 90 days to ED and we are gonna have outstanding ballots due to VBM and legal challenges,  the ED isnt gonna be over in one day, stop making threads like this

79 days and some change.

[The Mikado]

https://decisiondeskhq.com/ DDHQ is great, even though it has some naysayers here. It's a fast, reliable vote tracking site. They can be overeager in calling races, though.

Certain states have distinctive patterns. A famous example is Virginia, where the Democratic areas always come in last. Do not be alarmed if Trump's up 12 in VA with 20% in. That's just how Virginia works.

The most Republican part of Florida is in the Central Time Zone and won't begin counting until an hour after the rest of the state closes. Serious pro tip. Have this tattooed on the insides of your eyelids.

Maine has Ranked Choice Voting. If Gideon or Collins don't hit 50%, there'll be an instant runoff calculation at a later date.

Georgia Senate Special is a top two runoff. You're trying to see if Warnock makes the runoff or if it's just Collins v. Loeffler, and who is in #1 doesn't matter all that much.

Early Exit Polls are useless. If an exit poll is released at 4 PM, it means absolutely nothing and don't look at it. The "Kerry Landslide" crew from 2004 can attest to this.

Exit polls are great but will be adjusted as the night goes on. Don't assume the exit poll is final.

People on TV are going to horribly misinterpret exit polls.

Some state Secretary of State websites are excellent and well designed. Some are total s**t. If you're tracking downballot races, you'll hit quite a few of the latter eventually. Also, all of them will be overwhelmed with traffic.

There is going to be a TON of the vote uncounted in a lot of states. Be smart: if a race is a blowout on election night, that result will probably stand. If a Congressman is up by 2 over his opponent, that race IS NOT OVER and you should not call it.

The Dems' popular vote margin nationally will grow...and grow...and grow...and grow...and grow after election day as more and more of California gets counted. California is painfully slow at counting votes even by 2020 standards of slow vote counting. Expect Biden's final popular vote % to be at least 1-2% higher than what it seems on Wednesday Nov 4th because the Californians still have mountains of votes to count and won't get on it until weeks (not an exaggeration) after the election.

[Non Swing Voter]

1) CNN or MSNBC or some other news channel besides Fox.

2) Browser Window 1: Load Website that updates maps with county totals fast.

3) Browser Window 2: Load this site, which will probably crash.

4) Browser Window 3: Follow an experts twitter feed.

[McGarnagle]

Have lots of beer handy. Have a bottle of champagne handy too - pop the cork if Trump loses. If he wins, save it for happier times.

Pizza too. Don't forget pizza.

[LimoLiberal]

Block every website on your computer except for the 2016 Florida results and this year's Florida results as they come in. Florida is one of the only swing states we're confident the vast majority of ballots will be counted on election night, and quickly.

If Biden wins Florida he's won the presidency, if Trump wins Florida narrowly it's gonna be close, if Trump wins it in a blowout he's been reelected. But beyond that, specific regions in Florida can inform you of what's happening in different regions of the country as a whole. The I-4 corridor and Miami-Dade will clue you in how Hispanics trended; Pinellas and counties north, as well as Brevard and Volusia, are WWC indicators; Broward, Palm Beach, and Seminole will hint at any suburban trends.

I plan to ignore everything except for Florida given the vast uncertainty over how/when absentees will be counted and the disparity in voting methods between Democrats and Republicans. Exhibit A: NY-27 special.

[Roll Roons]

1) CNN or MSNBC or some other news channel besides Fox.

2) Browser Window 1: Load Website that updates maps with county totals fast.

3) Browser Window 2: Load this site, which will probably crash.

4) Browser Window 3: Follow an experts twitter feed.

Fox isn't just Hannity and Tucker screaming. Their decision desk is actually pretty good, and I think they were the first network to call the House for Democrats in 2018.