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GeorgiaModerate
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« on: October 23, 2020, 07:23:29 PM »
« edited: November 01, 2020, 02:55:34 PM by GeorgiaModerate »

Updating an old post of mine from the 2018 midterms…

(updated 11/1 to add a link to the 538 site with result timing information)

Election Day -- one of the days we election junkies live for -- is just around the corner, so I'd like to share a few of my personal tips for getting the most out of it.  (For background, I’ve been following U.S. elections since 1968, and have been on Atlas/Talk Elections since 2008.)  Some of these tips are for general election watching and some are Atlas-specific.  Feel free to add your own!

General tips:

1. Pace yourself!  It's going to be a long day and long night, and the main event doesn't start until the evening hours.  If you can manage it around work or school, sleep late or take a nap during the day.  Don't stay glued to coverage during the day and burn yourself out early.  Take breaks; talk to your family, go for a walk, play with the dog.

2. Don't read too much into anecdotal weather and local turnout reports.  They have little or no predictive value.  Final turnout reports, OTOH, may (but don't always) provide some useful information, but they’re probably going to be of even less value than usual this year due to the very high amount of early voting.

3. Corollary to (2): try not to read too much into early voting reports.  This is an election year like no other, and we just can’t say how that’s going to affect voting patterns.  Remember that party registration does not tell you who someone voted for!  Anyone who thinks they can make useful predictions from early voting is deluding themselves.  (The one possible exception is Jon Ralston of the Nevada Independent.)

4. Be very skeptical of reports of outrageous incidents, like people being scared away from polling places, unless they're confirmed by a reputable news source.  Please DON'T repost them here, on social media, or anywhere else without confirmation.

5. Take early exit polls with a grain of salt.  They often don't reflect the actual state of the electorate, and are something else that’s going to be even less useful than usual this year.

6. Remember that early returns often don't hold up, especially if they're mostly from one particular voting method: absentee (mail), early in-person (EIP), or Election Day.  We know that absentee is going to be heavily D while Election Day is going to be heavily R;  EIP voting is going to be more balanced, and how it breaks will probably depend on location.  So if a locality reports its absentee votes first -- which some do -- it’s likely to present a huge D lead that will erode when Election Day votes are reported.  The reverse will be true if absentee votes are counted and reported after Election Day votes.  NEW: see https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/ for state-by-state timing information.

7. If your side does well, always remember that it could have been better ("Damn, we almost got Rep. Dorque.")  If your side does poorly, remember that it could have been worse ("Whew, at least Dorque survived.")  It's OK to celebrate or mourn the results, but try not to lash out at others in the process.

8. Be careful of pronouncements that the results, whatever they are, signify a major change or realignment.  Such events are very rare.  If there's one consistent long-term trend in American politics, it's that the pendulum eventually tends to swing back again.

9. If you drink or use other mood-altering substances, try to do so in moderation, unless you get to the "drowning your sorrows" stage.  Think twice before posting while drunk; you'll probably regret it in the morning.


And some Talk Elections-specific tips (hopefully the mods will add their advice):

a. Please be civil.  Most posters here are human beings (there are a few I suspect are bots) and some of them have different views than you do.  This doesn't make them vile or your enemy.  To paraphrase what Sen. Mitchell famously said to Oliver North: it's possible for someone to be decent and patriotic and still think you're completely wrong.

b. OTOH, there are some trolls here, and they're usually easy to identify.  The goal of a troll is to stir up a reaction, not to discuss things in good faith.  Disagreeing with someone is not trolling; deliberately provoking them is.  Please don't respond to the trolls.  Just use the Ignore and/or Report buttons.   (There's nothing wrong with using Ignore.  You don't owe anyone your time to read their stuff.  I use it liberally and it's greatly enhanced my Atlas experience.)

c. Try not to clutter up the main result threads with side topics; they're going to be really busy.  Please take such discussions to separate threads.  Similarly, please don't clutter the main threads with empty quotes, memes, or other responses with negligible content.

d. Don't try to follow everything closely, and don't feel like you have to respond to everything.  There's just too much going on, and it's impossible to keep up with everything to the minute.  The best strategy is to pick just a few things you'll follow closely, and others that you'll check on less frequently.

e. Disable the forum feature that warns on new replies when posting.  It's too hard to keep up on fast-moving threads, and this puts a strain on the server.  To do this, in your Profile under "Look and Layout Preferences", check the box for "Don't warn on new replies made while posting."  If this causes your reply to be a little out of continuity, it's OK.  

f. Be wary of making overly quick projections or hot takes; it's not a race to see who can do it first.  Some people (who shall remain nameless) have been known to jump on early trends to make projections and be embarrassed by the final result.  Nobody remembers who was the first to make a correct projection, but everybody remembers who made the wrong ones.

g. Stay cool, be patient, and have fun!  The event itself is something we all enjoy, no matter how the results turn out.

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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2020, 07:31:19 PM »

g. Stay cool, be patient, and have fun!  The event itself is something we all enjoy, no matter how the results turn out.

For some of us this isn't a game. We aren't going to "have fun" "no matter how the results turn out".

Idk about yall, but I'm not going to "have fun" in the small chance Trump wins again.

I have an elderly father that I worry about every day and I want a world for him where he is safe from covid. I think Joe Biden is by far the better leader for that, so this is not a game to me.
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Asta
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2020, 07:38:29 PM »

Not like people should read too much into it, and the accuracy is questionable this year anyway but how will the exit polls be conducted this year, especially with the drastic change in voting behavior?
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2020, 07:46:52 PM »

Someone should go back to the threads and early articles from last year and see what early signs were actually predictive of the final result, and which were malarkey.

Any takers?
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Buzz
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2020, 07:54:36 PM »

Take the midnight voting out of New Hampshire as gospel.  Whatever numbers come out of those tiny towns will be a direct reflection of the election!
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2020, 07:59:17 PM »

Not like people should read too much into it, and the accuracy is questionable this year anyway but how will the exit polls be conducted this year, especially with the drastic change in voting behavior?

To counter, as I say when this question comes up, how much different is it from states like California/Colorado with overwhelming to 100% mail ballots? They don't seem to have had problems with exit polls.
The only state I can see a big problem with is Pennsylvania, which seems to be having a hell of a time with mail ballots
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2020, 08:01:19 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2020, 08:08:15 PM by GeorgiaModerate »

Take the midnight voting out of New Hampshire as gospel.  Whatever numbers come out of those tiny towns will be a direct reflection of the election!

I recall one election, in the 1980s I think, where the Libertarian candidate made a serious play for Dixville Notch and actually won it.

EDIT: went back and looked for it.  It was 1992, and Andre Marrou won the most votes of any candidate in Dixville Notch in the NH *primary*, not the general election.

Quote
When all the votes were tallied, he got the support of only 2,300 New Hampshire residents—fewer than half the number who wrote in Mario Cuomo's name. But from just after midnight until 7 a.m. on February 18, more voters had cast their ballots for Libertarian Andre Marrou than for any other presidential candidate nationwide.

Marrou "won" the election in tiny Dixville Notch, the town that lets its 31 registered voters cast their ballots just after midnight on primary morning. (The other polls don't open until 7 a.m.) The former Alaska legislator collected 11 votes there, more than President Bush's nine or pundit Pat Buchanan's three. Marrou also outpolled Democrats Bill Clinton (three votes) and Paul Tsongas (two).

https://reason.com/1992/05/01/notching-a-victory/
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2020, 08:04:50 PM »

I would love to pick your brain about what Election Nights were like in earlier days. I watch a lot of old coverage on YouTube to get a sense, for historical research.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2020, 08:10:57 PM »

As far as following results, this is a good tip:

Block every website on your computer except for the 2016 Florida results and this year's Florida results as they come in. Florida is one of the only swing states we're confident the vast majority of ballots will be counted on election night, and quickly.

If Biden wins Florida he's won the presidency, if Trump wins Florida narrowly it's gonna be close, if Trump wins it in a blowout he's been reelected. But beyond that, specific regions in Florida can inform you of what's happening in different regions of the country as a whole. The I-4 corridor and Miami-Dade will clue you in how Hispanics trended; Pinellas and counties north, as well as Brevard and Volusia, are WWC indicators; Broward, Palm Beach, and Seminole will hint at any suburban trends.

I plan to ignore everything except for Florida given the vast uncertainty over how/when absentees will be counted and the disparity in voting methods between Democrats and Republicans. Exhibit A: NY-27 special.

Florida and North Carolina count quickly, but it's hard to say exactly how much we'll know from other swing states, especially Pennsylvania. But if Biden wins both, it doesn't matter because he's almost certainly over 270. In general, I think we'll have a good idea of who wins the presidency and Senate by the end of the night. The House is almost certainly going to stay blue, but certain individual races will likely take some time to be called.
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Hammy
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2020, 08:47:23 PM »

try not to read too much into early voting reports. 


There's at least 10-15 people here who need to take this to heart.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2020, 08:55:05 PM »

A little tip about the exit polls:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/georgia

Brian Kemp won people with both under and over $100k income.

And Stacey Abrams won both first-time midterm voters and those who voted in midterms before.

Does that make sense to you?
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Turbo Flame
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2020, 09:54:49 PM »

Thank you for the tips.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2020, 08:25:47 AM »

A little tip about the exit polls:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/georgia

Brian Kemp won people with both under and over $100k income.

And Stacey Abrams won both first-time midterm voters and those who voted in midterms before.

Does that make sense to you?

That's interesting, and obviously those two can't be reconciled.  I wonder if CNN accidentally swapped the result on non-first time midterm voters (i.e. it should be 50-48 Kemp rather than 50-48 Abrams).  If you use 50-48 Kemp instead, the result is much more consistent with the other categories.

But in any case, I think this supports not putting too much stock in exit polls. Smiley
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JacksonHitchcock
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2020, 11:16:50 AM »

Thank you GM! I was wondering if you could give us a look back at all the elections you've actively followed during your day from what you thought at the time, any predictions you had during the time. Kind of like the events you covered a couple of months ago.


On the note of your post, I would agree for the most part. However, on election night I will be avoiding this forum/blog entirely after the polls close in the east I will return when the election is decided (however long that may be)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2020, 11:37:11 AM »

Thank you GM! I was wondering if you could give us a look back at all the elections you've actively followed during your day from what you thought at the time, any predictions you had during the time. Kind of like the events you covered a couple of months ago.

Sure, I'll write something up and post it in its own thread, rather than sidetracking this one.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #15 on: October 25, 2020, 07:37:42 PM »

Thank you GM! I was wondering if you could give us a look back at all the elections you've actively followed during your day from what you thought at the time, any predictions you had during the time. Kind of like the events you covered a couple of months ago.

Sure, I'll write something up and post it in its own thread, rather than sidetracking this one.


I created a thread for Presidential election memories (and posted mine) in Forum Community: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407089.0
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2020, 02:56:22 PM »

Bumping as we get close to the big day.
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izixs
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2020, 03:07:20 PM »

I posted an election night survival guide the other day. Geared more towards general audiences, but... my second half is mostly about self care and it being okay to turn off the TV, even for us political junkies.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYEl5uz4L-c
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« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2020, 04:03:32 PM »

Good post. Just want to add a few of my observations.

Quote
General tips:

1. Pace yourself!  It's going to be a long day and long night, and the main event doesn't start until the evening hours.  If you can manage it around work or school, sleep late or take a nap during the day.  Don't stay glued to coverage during the day and burn yourself out early.  Take breaks; talk to your family, go for a walk, play with the dog.

There's no point to be online prior to the start of returns from Indiana. 7pm eastern is the EARLIEST you should be online. I normally take the day off for election day. Sleep during the afternoon.

Election night should not be longer than a 5 hour event - 7pm eastern to midnight eastern. Counting always stops at midnight eastern, so there's no point to being up later than that.

It will depend on the election whether the night is long or short. Most election nights are short. 2008 was about an hour or so, 2012 was also about an hour. Enough to have a meal at the pub and go home. 2016 and 2000 were much longer events that went the distance.

Quote
2. Don't read too much into anecdotal weather and local turnout reports.  They have little or no predictive value.  Final turnout reports, OTOH, may (but don't always) provide some useful information, but they’re probably going to be of even less value than usual this year due to the very high amount of early voting.

Weather reports and local turnout are useless.

Early results are actually really predictive if you've been doing your homework. Indiana going so strongly for Trump was an indication as to how the night would go. Even though the result was still really close, we knew from the early returns that he was going to have a good night.

Mail-ins will only have bearing in the states that are closer than 2%, and are unlikely to sway the election.

Quote
3. Corollary to (2): try not to read too much into early voting reports.  This is an election year like no other, and we just can’t say how that’s going to affect voting patterns.  Remember that party registration does not tell you who someone voted for!  Anyone who thinks they can make useful predictions from early voting is deluding themselves.  (The one possible exception is Jon Ralston of the Nevada Independent.)

EV gives us ranges which, when combined with the actual count gives us a good idea as to how the rest of the night will go (within about 5%).

Quote
4. Be very skeptical of reports of outrageous incidents, like people being scared away from polling places, unless they're confirmed by a reputable news source.  Please DON'T repost them here, on social media, or anywhere else without confirmation.

Most of the news election day is silly. At this point all of the important election news has happened. Nothing from this point on will change the result.

Quote
5. Take early exit polls with a grain of salt.  They often don't reflect the actual state of the electorate, and are something else that’s going to be even less useful than usual this year.

Great advice. Exit polls can give us a range (within about 5 percent), but won't help us understand close states, and can often be counterproductive in understanding the final result in close states.

Quote
6. Remember that early returns often don't hold up, especially if they're mostly from one particular voting method: absentee (mail), early in-person (EIP), or Election Day.  We know that absentee is going to be heavily D while Election Day is going to be heavily R;  EIP voting is going to be more balanced, and how it breaks will probably depend on location.  So if a locality reports its absentee votes first -- which some do -- it’s likely to present a huge D lead that will erode when Election Day votes are reported.  The reverse will be true if absentee votes are counted and reported after Election Day votes.  NEW: see https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/ for state-by-state timing information.

Excellent post with one exception. IPEV tends to favour republicans. I'm not sure how they will be reporting things election night wrt main in ballots.

Quote
7. If your side does well, always remember that it could have been better ("Damn, we almost got Rep. Dorque.")  If your side does poorly, remember that it could have been worse ("Whew, at least Dorque survived.")  It's OK to celebrate or mourn the results, but try not to lash out at others in the process.

Great advice. When Romney lost, I was paid to do an election blog. I warned them that it would not be worth their time. I went to a pub, ordered a cerveza and a lovely enchilada meal. Before I finished my cerveza, Romney had lost. I enjoyed my meal and went home and slept well.

Elections are not everything. The world is a much bigger place than that.

Quote
8. Be careful of pronouncements that the results, whatever they are, signify a major change or realignment.  Such events are very rare.  If there's one consistent long-term trend in American politics, it's that the pendulum eventually tends to swing back again.

Re-aligning elections are a rare, once in a generation thing. Although we are overdue for one. there were realigning elections in 2000, 1980 and in 1964.

Quote
9. If you drink or use other mood-altering substances, try to do so in moderation, unless you get to the "drowning your sorrows" stage.  Think twice before posting while drunk; you'll probably regret it in the morning.

I would advise against drinking alone on election night - especially if you are heavily invested in the outcome.

Quote
a. Please be civil.  Most posters here are human beings (there are a few I suspect are bots) and some of them have different views than you do.  This doesn't make them vile or your enemy.  To paraphrase what Sen. Mitchell famously said to Oliver North: it's possible for someone to be decent and patriotic and still think you're completely wrong.

I see the phrase loving and moral used more often. So I will reword this. It's very possible for someone to be a kind, loving and moral person and still support Trump. The same goes for Biden.

Quote
b. OTOH, there are some trolls here, and they're usually easy to identify.  The goal of a troll is to stir up a reaction, not to discuss things in good faith.  Disagreeing with someone is not trolling; deliberately provoking them is.  Please don't respond to the trolls.  Just use the Ignore and/or Report buttons.   (There's nothing wrong with using Ignore.  You don't owe anyone your time to read their stuff.  I use it liberally and it's greatly enhanced my Atlas experience.)

c. Try not to clutter up the main result threads with side topics; they're going to be really busy.  Please take such discussions to separate threads.  Similarly, please don't clutter the main threads with empty quotes, memes, or other responses with negligible content.

Nothing to add here.

Quote
d. Don't try to follow everything closely, and don't feel like you have to respond to everything.  There's just too much going on, and it's impossible to keep up with everything to the minute.  The best strategy is to pick just a few things you'll follow closely, and others that you'll check on less frequently.

Would agree with this. The first 2,3 hours of election night are usually extremely busy, with the peak being an hour into the count to about 2,3 hours into the count. Election night is a very quick sprint for about 3hours, so you are best to be fresh out of the gate at 7.

Quote
e. Disable the forum feature that warns on new replies when posting.  It's too hard to keep up on fast-moving threads, and this puts a strain on the server.  To do this, in your Profile under "Look and Layout Preferences", check the box for "Don't warn on new replies made while posting."  If this causes your reply to be a little out of continuity, it's OK. 

Nothing to add.

Anyways, my observations. I wish folks luck on Tuesday. I will likely be reporting on the election results as usual. Smiley I hope the atlas enjoys their superbowl too.
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PoliticsWatcher1
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« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2020, 04:09:25 PM »

Thanks for the tips! It's nice to have someone with experience.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2020, 04:09:45 PM »

Election night should not be longer than a 5 hour event - 7pm eastern to midnight eastern. Counting always stops at midnight eastern, so there's no point to being up later than that.


This is not true and has never been true.


Quote
Mail-ins will only have bearing in the states that are closer than 2%, and are unlikely to sway the election.


This is not true even in a normal election, as some states have previously been mostly or entirely mail-in.  This year it will be completely untrue, since a very significant proportion of votes will be cast by mail.


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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2020, 04:14:09 PM »

Quote
This is not true even in a normal election, as some states have previously been mostly or entirely mail-in.  This year it will be completely untrue, since a very significant proportion of votes will be cast by mail.

A legitimate point, however I actually have experience with a post coronavirus election. I found that the only results that were affected were within 2% despite 40 percent of votes being by mail in ballots. The election itself was completely unaffected by the mail ins.

And this was with mail ins being counted AFTER the ballots cast in person on election day.

There was no transformative change from the results on election night after all the mail ins were counted. As expected. 
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #22 on: November 01, 2020, 04:16:19 PM »

Quote
This is not true and has never been true.

Generally by midnight eastern the results are known and the candidates, whether they have won or lost will give a speech. The counting I am sure continues, but the reporting will tail off dramatically as soon as these speeches are given.

This was the case in 2000 and in 2016. We did not get reported results until the next morning.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #23 on: November 01, 2020, 04:17:31 PM »

Quote
This is not true even in a normal election, as some states have previously been mostly or entirely mail-in.  This year it will be completely untrue, since a very significant proportion of votes will be cast by mail.

A legitimate point, however I actually have experience with a post coronavirus election. I found that the only results that were affected were within 2% despite 40 percent of votes being by mail in ballots. The election itself was completely unaffected by the mail ins.

And this was with mail ins being counted AFTER the ballots cast in person on election day.

There was no transformative change from the results on election night after all the mail ins were counted. As expected. 

Prior examples are not meaningful here, though, because for Tuesday's election, Trump has caused absentee voting vs Election Day voting to become very polarized.  As such, the results WILL be different between E-Day and mail-in: E-Day will be heavily R, while absentee will be heavily D. 
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« Reply #24 on: November 01, 2020, 04:23:33 PM »

Quote
Prior examples are not meaningful here, though, because for Tuesday's election, Trump has caused absentee voting vs Election Day voting to become very polarized.  As such, the results WILL be different between E-Day and mail-in: E-Day will be heavily R, while absentee will be heavily D.

In the prior example mail-ins were segregated and counted later, so there was a 100 percent divide between election night ballots and the mail-ins. Even so there were not many changes, and nothing that wasn't already extremely close on election night.

You are right, there may be differences between the mail-ins and between election day, but that will also depend on how or when the results are reported on election day. We shall see.

If you're counting on ballots counted after election night to change the results, the odds are pretty against you, even in this election. There's a difference between being "close" and between being "Close enough", which this falls into. 
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