Who is more vulnerable in 2026? Hobbs or Lombardo?

[Cyrusman]

As long as the AZ GOP nominee in 2026 isn't a Lake/Masters/Finchem type, this is easily Hobbs IMO.
Hobbs was a bland candidate who honestly was not a strong candidate who got lucky that Lake was a nutcase who decided it was smart to insult McCain and was toxic for many moderates. I think Lombardo for example would've beaten Hobbs if he was in AZ.
NV to me is still more culturally "liberal" and Sisolak was hurt greatly by his COVID restrictions and barely lost.

[Cyrusman]

As long as the AZ GOP nominee in 2022 isn't a Lake/Masters/Finchem type, this is easily Hobbs IMO.
Hobbs was a bland candidate who honestly was not a strong candidate who got lucky that Lake was a nutcase who decided it was smart to insult McCain and was toxic for many moderates. I think Lombardo for example would've beaten Hobbs if he was in AZ.
NV to me is still more culturally "liberal" and Sisolak was hurt greatly by his COVID restrictions and barely lost.

So Hobbs is completely safe then. Arizona GOP seems incapable of nominating a serious candidate.

Yall are going to be disappointed if your assuming AZ GOP is going to eternally nominate lunatics. Now the more moderate candidates can point to 2022 as proof these people are unelectable

They can prove me wrong, but with how Brnovich got clobbered in the senate primary and the fact that Yee entirely passed on running for governor doesn’t make me optimistic. This past election almost wiped out their bench. All that’s left is Yee.

Well Kelli Ward is no longer the AZ GOP chair. I don't know much about Jeff DeWit but I find it hard to believe you can get much worse than Ward. I guess we'll see. Also I'll give Steve Daines this, he seems to be much better at the job than Rick Scott was in terms of recruiting.

[Cyrusman]

Probably Hobbs, but I think people are exaggerating how "easily" winnable AZ is for the supposedly "right" Republican and how much 2022 had to do with "candidate quality" (as opposed to the state continuing to trend away from Republicans at a faster-than-expected pace).

The thing is though AZ doesn't really have the type of demographic trends that honestly favor either party. Its not a GA that has a huge boom of new black residents. It attracts both dissatisfied right leaning Californian's and some left leaning ones. Overall the state has a very "moderate" "libertarian" feel to it, so one would think a more normal republican should be the favorite. I'm not saying winning it like they did 10 years ago, but at least be a slight favorite.

[Cyrusman]

Probably Hobbs, but I think people are exaggerating how "easily" winnable AZ is for the supposedly "right" Republican and how much 2022 had to do with "candidate quality" (as opposed to the state continuing to trend away from Republicans at a faster-than-expected pace).

The thing is though AZ doesn't really have the type of demographic trends that honestly favor either party. Its not a GA that has a huge boom of new black residents. It attracts both dissatisfied right leaning Californian's and some left leaning ones. Overall the state has a very "moderate" "libertarian" feel to it, so one would think a more normal republican should be the favorite. I'm not saying winning it like they did 10 years ago, but at least be a slight favorite.

Is there any data on the political leanings of those newcomers, though? I’d be very surprised if the split was even close to 50/50.

 I don't know of any data I can find honestly. I live in SoCal in Orange County and go to San Diego County often since my parents live there. I can't speak for the rest of the state but in these two counties there are a lot of right leaning independents and republicans who have moved to AZ during and post Covid due to political reasons. It was kinda viewed as the conservative oasis for republicans in Socal during the lockdowns  here. I'm sure left leaning people have moved there a lot too, but I hear a lot of liberals in CA like Colorado more if they are going to move.