Who is more vulnerable in 2026? Hobbs or Lombardo?

[Tekken_Guy]

Who is more vulnerable in 2026, Katie Hobbs or Joe Lombardo?

[Lambsbread]

I think Hobbs. She narrowly won against a certifiably insane person, so I think anyone with slightly fewer marbles rattling around inside their skull should be able to beat her. I don't know what NV Dems' bench looks like, but it sounds like they're busy dealing with internal chaos as opposed to fielding good candidates.

[Cyrusman]

As long as the AZ GOP nominee in 2026 isn't a Lake/Masters/Finchem type, this is easily Hobbs IMO.
Hobbs was a bland candidate who honestly was not a strong candidate who got lucky that Lake was a nutcase who decided it was smart to insult McCain and was toxic for many moderates. I think Lombardo for example would've beaten Hobbs if he was in AZ.
NV to me is still more culturally "liberal" and Sisolak was hurt greatly by his COVID restrictions and barely lost.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

As long as the AZ GOP nominee in 2022 isn't a Lake/Masters/Finchem type, this is easily Hobbs IMO.
Hobbs was a bland candidate who honestly was not a strong candidate who got lucky that Lake was a nutcase who decided it was smart to insult McCain and was toxic for many moderates. I think Lombardo for example would've beaten Hobbs if he was in AZ.
NV to me is still more culturally "liberal" and Sisolak was hurt greatly by his COVID restrictions and barely lost.

So Hobbs is completely safe then. Arizona GOP seems incapable of nominating a serious candidate.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

As long as the AZ GOP nominee in 2022 isn't a Lake/Masters/Finchem type, this is easily Hobbs IMO.
Hobbs was a bland candidate who honestly was not a strong candidate who got lucky that Lake was a nutcase who decided it was smart to insult McCain and was toxic for many moderates. I think Lombardo for example would've beaten Hobbs if he was in AZ.
NV to me is still more culturally "liberal" and Sisolak was hurt greatly by his COVID restrictions and barely lost.

So Hobbs is completely safe then. Arizona GOP seems incapable of nominating a serious candidate.

Yall are going to be disappointed if your assuming AZ GOP is going to eternally nominate lunatics. Now the more moderate candidates can point to 2022 as proof these people are unelectable

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

As long as the AZ GOP nominee in 2022 isn't a Lake/Masters/Finchem type, this is easily Hobbs IMO.
Hobbs was a bland candidate who honestly was not a strong candidate who got lucky that Lake was a nutcase who decided it was smart to insult McCain and was toxic for many moderates. I think Lombardo for example would've beaten Hobbs if he was in AZ.
NV to me is still more culturally "liberal" and Sisolak was hurt greatly by his COVID restrictions and barely lost.

So Hobbs is completely safe then. Arizona GOP seems incapable of nominating a serious candidate.

Yall are going to be disappointed if your assuming AZ GOP is going to eternally nominate lunatics. Now the more moderate candidates can point to 2022 as proof these people are unelectable

They can prove me wrong, but with how Brnovich got clobbered in the senate primary and the fact that Yee entirely passed on running for governor doesn’t make me optimistic. This past election almost wiped out their bench. All that’s left is Yee.

[Cyrusman]

As long as the AZ GOP nominee in 2022 isn't a Lake/Masters/Finchem type, this is easily Hobbs IMO.
Hobbs was a bland candidate who honestly was not a strong candidate who got lucky that Lake was a nutcase who decided it was smart to insult McCain and was toxic for many moderates. I think Lombardo for example would've beaten Hobbs if he was in AZ.
NV to me is still more culturally "liberal" and Sisolak was hurt greatly by his COVID restrictions and barely lost.

So Hobbs is completely safe then. Arizona GOP seems incapable of nominating a serious candidate.

Yall are going to be disappointed if your assuming AZ GOP is going to eternally nominate lunatics. Now the more moderate candidates can point to 2022 as proof these people are unelectable

They can prove me wrong, but with how Brnovich got clobbered in the senate primary and the fact that Yee entirely passed on running for governor doesn’t make me optimistic. This past election almost wiped out their bench. All that’s left is Yee.

Well Kelli Ward is no longer the AZ GOP chair. I don't know much about Jeff DeWit but I find it hard to believe you can get much worse than Ward. I guess we'll see. Also I'll give Steve Daines this, he seems to be much better at the job than Rick Scott was in terms of recruiting.

[MT Treasurer]

Probably Hobbs, but I think people are exaggerating how "easily" winnable AZ is for the supposedly "right" Republican and how much 2022 had to do with "candidate quality" (as opposed to the state continuing to trend away from Republicans at a faster-than-expected pace).

[Landslide Lyndon]

Well Kelli Ward is no longer the AZ GOP chair. I don't know much about Jeff DeWit but I find it hard to believe you can get much worse than Ward. I guess we'll see. Also I'll give Steve Daines this, he seems to be much better at the job than Rick Scott was in terms of recruiting.

He was part of Trump's campaign in both 2016 and 2020, so I wouldn't count on him being a Rockefeller Republican.

[Cyrusman]

Probably Hobbs, but I think people are exaggerating how "easily" winnable AZ is for the supposedly "right" Republican and how much 2022 had to do with "candidate quality" (as opposed to the state continuing to trend away from Republicans at a faster-than-expected pace).

The thing is though AZ doesn't really have the type of demographic trends that honestly favor either party. Its not a GA that has a huge boom of new black residents. It attracts both dissatisfied right leaning Californian's and some left leaning ones. Overall the state has a very "moderate" "libertarian" feel to it, so one would think a more normal republican should be the favorite. I'm not saying winning it like they did 10 years ago, but at least be a slight favorite.

[MT Treasurer]

Probably Hobbs, but I think people are exaggerating how "easily" winnable AZ is for the supposedly "right" Republican and how much 2022 had to do with "candidate quality" (as opposed to the state continuing to trend away from Republicans at a faster-than-expected pace).

The thing is though AZ doesn't really have the type of demographic trends that honestly favor either party. Its not a GA that has a huge boom of new black residents. It attracts both dissatisfied right leaning Californian's and some left leaning ones. Overall the state has a very "moderate" "libertarian" feel to it, so one would think a more normal republican should be the favorite. I'm not saying winning it like they did 10 years ago, but at least be a slight favorite.

Is there any data on the political leanings of those newcomers, though? I’d be very surprised if the split was even close to 50/50.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Probably Hobbs, but I think people are exaggerating how "easily" winnable AZ is for the supposedly "right" Republican and how much 2022 had to do with "candidate quality" (as opposed to the state continuing to trend away from Republicans at a faster-than-expected pace).

The thing is though AZ doesn't really have the type of demographic trends that honestly favor either party. Its not a GA that has a huge boom of new black residents. It attracts both dissatisfied right leaning Californian's and some left leaning ones. Overall the state has a very "moderate" "libertarian" feel to it, so one would think a more normal republican should be the favorite. I'm not saying winning it like they did 10 years ago, but at least be a slight favorite.

Is there any data on the political leanings of those newcomers, though? I’d be very surprised if the split was even close to 50/50.

Until proven otherwise, it’s probably safe to assume that the California migrants vote roughly the same as the vote in California, but maybe 5-10% more republican. I could be wrong, but that’s the opinion I’m starting at.

[Cyrusman]

Probably Hobbs, but I think people are exaggerating how "easily" winnable AZ is for the supposedly "right" Republican and how much 2022 had to do with "candidate quality" (as opposed to the state continuing to trend away from Republicans at a faster-than-expected pace).

The thing is though AZ doesn't really have the type of demographic trends that honestly favor either party. Its not a GA that has a huge boom of new black residents. It attracts both dissatisfied right leaning Californian's and some left leaning ones. Overall the state has a very "moderate" "libertarian" feel to it, so one would think a more normal republican should be the favorite. I'm not saying winning it like they did 10 years ago, but at least be a slight favorite.

Is there any data on the political leanings of those newcomers, though? I’d be very surprised if the split was even close to 50/50.

 I don't know of any data I can find honestly. I live in SoCal in Orange County and go to San Diego County often since my parents live there. I can't speak for the rest of the state but in these two counties there are a lot of right leaning independents and republicans who have moved to AZ during and post Covid due to political reasons. It was kinda viewed as the conservative oasis for republicans in Socal during the lockdowns  here. I'm sure left leaning people have moved there a lot too, but I hear a lot of liberals in CA like Colorado more if they are going to move.

[Ragnaroni]

All they need to have to flip AZ is a generic McCain R who's inoffensive!

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

A lot depends on who the President is.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

All they need to have to flip AZ is a generic McCain R who's inoffensive!

Unironically, I feel like we should do this just to get a more updated baseline reading of how well McCain R's can do in a statewide race.

[Spectator]

A lot depends on who the President is.

Not even, I think Laura Kelly kinda killed that theory. I think it depends on their popularity.

[Ragnaroni]

All they need to have to flip AZ is a generic McCain R who's inoffensive!

Unironically, I feel like we should do this just to get a more updated baseline reading of how well McCain R's can do in a statewide race.

Exactly! We should stop running Trumpists there, its clearly not working...

[Spectator]

All they need to have to flip AZ is a generic McCain R who's inoffensive!

Unironically, I feel like we should do this just to get a more updated baseline reading of how well McCain R's can do in a statewide race.

Exactly! We should stop running Trumpists there, its clearly not working...

The McCain Republicans are clearly Democrats now. You don’t just vote blue for Senate ‘18–>POTUS/Senate ‘20–>Senate/Governor ‘22 and be an actual Republican.

[Ragnaroni]

All they need to have to flip AZ is a generic McCain R who's inoffensive!

Unironically, I feel like we should do this just to get a more updated baseline reading of how well McCain R's can do in a statewide race.

Exactly! We should stop running Trumpists there, its clearly not working...

The McCain Republicans are clearly Democrats now. You don’t just vote blue for Senate ‘18–>POTUS/Senate ‘20–>Senate/Governor ‘22 and be an actual Republican.

Trump seems better at alienating everyone than forming a stronger GOP....

[Mr. Smith]

Hobbes seems like a reverse RDS who only got in because enough people thought the other person was radical and insane AND because the Senate Candidate was reasonably revered...however once put into power she played all the cards right.

Gotta go with Lombardo for now.

[Xing]

I’m guessing Lombardo will avoid being controversial and will thus end up being fairly popular, so Hobbs, even if she starts out favored.

[xavier110]

The Cartel Queen is definitely stronger than Loser Lombardo. She’s already slaying the state house down boots mama. Will she clear 70% in Pima in 2026 before she declares herself governor for life? Kari Lake could never.

Anyway, the GOP here has doubled down on insanity, echoing the deep red legislative line on banning drag, jailing gays, ending vote by mail program, accusing political opponents of being pedophiles and drug pushers, etc. Perfectly normal political discourse.

I assume most will underestimate her again when she runs for reelection.

The McCain Republicans are clearly Democrats now. You don’t just vote blue for Senate ‘18–>POTUS/Senate ‘20–>Senate/Governor ‘22 and be an actual Republican

And ding ding, this was my theory that made me somewhat bullish in 2022. Regardless, it’s been almost a decade of the state party ostracizing potentially hundreds of thousands of voters they rely on, lol. These people have basically voted D ever since and will not suddenly change course.

[Spectator]

Kimberly Yee would be the strongest challenger to Hobbs on paper, but I’m skeptical she can make it through a primary.

Aaron Ford is termed out as AG and can probably have the nomination against Lombardo if he wanted it.

I do think 90% of this will come down to what Hobbs’ and Lombardo’s approval ratings are.

[Badger]

I do think 90% of this will come down to what Hobbs’ and Lombardo’s approval ratings are.

Quite the hot take there.