2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Ferguson97]

With the latest Apache County drop, Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST Tuesday: 7553
Provisional ballots: 44668
Ballots ready for tabulation: 47178

Total: 99399

Using the same Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.

With these assumptions, an estimated 86689 ballots will be accepted, and Trump will gain a net 17231 of them.  He currently trails by 19348, so he would lose by 2117, compared to a projected loss by 1817 in the last update.

Jesus, that’s cutting it close

[Ferguson97]

Wait... did Biden *increase* his AZ lead?

By a couple hundred votes I think

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325563462433509376
I don't think he's appearing though.

What is that even?  That sounds like some D list conservamoron.  He's not even getting Tucker to push this?

Uh oh...

"During the 2020 election, Levin called on Republican-controlled state legislatures to disregard the results of the 2020 election and send electors to the Electoral College who would vote for Trump.[69]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Levin#2020_election

I keep telling you people this is what's going to happen in the end

And we keep telling you that it's not.  It's a right-wing fantasy.

Everything Trump's done after entering office was right wing fantasy until it became reality. I have absolutely no faith in these people to do the right thing as they've proven they simply don't care

But... they literally can't do it. Democratic state parties are choosing the electors in enough states that Trump couldn't do it even if they tried.

Come on, I thought you abandoned your doomer ways.

[Ferguson97]

https://thehill.com/homenews/525063-lindsey-graham-if-trump-concedes-election-republicans-will-never-elect-another?__twitter_impression=true

Change the election system to what Lindsey? Popular vote because both ways you've lost? Dictatorship, so much so for the Constitution?

Man, Trump must have some serious dirt on Lindsey for him to keep going to bat for him even after he's been voted out.

[Ferguson97]

Friendly reminder that the electoral college is still the dumbest system around for electing a President.

You speak facts. Weird how so many Americans care more about corn than people.

California shouldn't dictate to the other 49 states who gets to be president.

What are you talking about? California is not a monolith. 4.7 million Californians (and counting) voted for Trump lmao.

And how is what you're saying different from having swing states control who wins the election anyway?

[Ferguson97]

Trump will still win imo

Delusion

[Ferguson97]

Raffensperger fires back:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1325910990735740928

He just lost his 2022 primary.

[Ferguson97]

Loeffler, Perdue call on Georgia's Republican secretary of state to resign

All they're doing is disenfranchising their own supporters by making them think voting is pointless because the system is rigged.

Two of the dumbest members of the Senate.

I disagree, I think it will rile up the base and make them more likely to vote.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1325947140439482368

[Ferguson97]

Doctor will no longer be able to use "who is the president of the untied states" to test if patients have brain damage or not.

Well, I guess technically they still can.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1325947140439482368

I would be more worried about this if Barr had "found" something with Durham.

They don't have to find anything, they're going to use this to challenge the electoral votes in the Senate, which McConnell seems all in on doing

If Pence and the GOP Senate somehow refuse to go through with the certification, then we have Acting President Nancy Pelosi.

[Ferguson97]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrianKempGA/status/1325890553536516097?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Brad Raffensperger is the only thing standing between us and the death of democracy

[Ferguson97]

I get why an ego maniac like trump will never accept the fact that he lost this election

but I have need no idea why so many in the GOP are still going along with him at this point
the reality is by the end of all of this Biden will sworn in as the 46th president of the united states come January

There is simply no evidence of voter fraud that is large enough to reverse the results of this election and all the investigations from Bill Barr in the world is not going to change that fact

They know there is no voter fraud. This is to keep the base happy and turnout high for 2022.

[Ferguson97]

1) Why is Arizona being so slow to count?

2) Why hasn't Arizona been called?

[Ferguson97]

Like, if normal House Dems got tied to AOC, "defund the police", etc, why are ALL local Republicans not being tied to this anti-democracy sh*t?!!

That's the double standard. Voters give their local Republican candidates way more benefit of the doubt than they do for Democrats.

https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1325991007876509696

It’s so damn infuriating when Republicans say stuff like this because it’s the exact opposite of the truth 

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1326216715861192705

[Ferguson97]

I frankly don't join that sneering view of the white working class quite so much. That point can simply be limited to as I noted that Republican series about effect of liberal Progressive governance and supposed to struction of wealth production simply don't comport with reality. Even closely. At all.

I'm more concerned that these poor and working-class whites are supporting Trump not because they give a rat's ass about Republican Economic Policy, but because they don't believe there's any meaningful distinction between the parties on that front. That said, I am not convinced it all by the left wings argument all they need to do is run a Bernie Sanders style Democratic socialists and these working-class whites will Rush to embrace real economic change.

https://twitter.com/forevertawl/status/1294424061590867968

Imagine posting this braindead meme.

Democrats consistently offer excellent solutions for the working class and the white working class tells them go to hell.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/OversightDems/status/1326289047933816836

[Ferguson97]

AP and Fox Decision Desks VINDICATED

[Ferguson97]

What is Donald Trump’s legal strategy at this point?

Get it all the way up to the Supreme Court and hope they side with him.

Which won't happen.

[Ferguson97]

What is really impressive is the fact that this election wasn't even bad for republicans in general as they cut the democrats majority in the house by over half and held onto the senate, while Trump still lost by historic amounts that are almost as impressive as his wins in 2016. Think about it Biden won Arizona and Ga that hasn't want democrat in decades that are as impressive as Trump winning Wis, Mi and Pa in 2016.

This is sick.

I agree. It is probably the weirdest election map at least since 1916 or 1976.

It's just visually very weird since Georgia is isolated. If you think about the demographics, partisan swings, etc. it's not that crazy.

[Ferguson97]

Uh, so this seems like a problem

https://twitter.com/willwilkinson/status/1326622656595103745

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1327104675821334528

[Ferguson97]

Biden went to the house he grew up in over 70 years ago, on election day, and signed that on the wall. You bet they are going to turn that into a national historic marker now

We were just <1% away from that becoming the biggest joke in US political history.

Would that be more or less embarrassing than Hillary's "happy birthday to this future president"?

[Ferguson97]

The swing to Biden in New Jersey is down to 1.8% now with more ballots counted, quite possible New Jersey will trend Republican this year again like it did in 2016, here is an interesting statistic, Biden is doing only 2.4% worse in Colorado than New Jersey, could Colorado vote to the left of New Jersey in 2024. 

I'd honestly be shocked if Biden did worse than Hillary in NJ... I guess just an impact of higher turnout among rural Rs?