2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

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Why is nobody talking about Arizona?

I am starting to get nervous. There's another 400-500k votes out there, 350k of which is in Pima and Maricopa. They're largely late mail ballots and mail ballots dropped off on Election Day (all other ED vote is counted).

The mystery is do they break like ED vote (which was 2-1 Trump) or a little closer to the early vote (where Biden had a high single/low double digit lead in the initial EV dump). If it's ED vote, it will be NERVE-WRACKING, and Trump could do it. If it's somewhere in the middle, it's better for Biden.

Why would these mail in ballots become magically better for Trump when that hasn’t been true for anywhere so far

Apparently they're late mail in/drop off ballots, and there was a GOP edge amongst these registered voters.

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Just ran some numbers on Arizona, based on what's available.
Given what happened with the latest batch of votes reported from Maricopa, which went 59,5% for Trump (a 12,1% swing with respect to the Maricopa previous results), I tried to look what would happen if the same difference with respect to the prior vote occurred everywhere.
Answer: Trump would win by 15K votes.

This is a pretty "strict" hypothesis, nonetheless...it's really tight.

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Just ran some numbers on Arizona, based on what's available.
Given what happened with the latest batch of votes reported from Maricopa, which went 59,5% for Trump (a 12,1% swing with respect to the Maricopa previous results), I tried to look what would happen if the same difference with respect to the prior vote occurred everywhere.
Answer: Trump would win by 15K votes.

This is a pretty "strict" hypothesis, nonetheless...it's really tight.

the first batch went 59% Trump but wasn't the second 57%? And again, it appears those batches were expected to be more pro-Trump than the remaining batches.

I don't know, really. Was there any announcement about a specific kind of early vote being reported?

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I don't see any reason to worry about Nevada - slim margin, but incoming votes will be democratic and Biden's already ahead.

AZ, GA and PA are the states to watch.
Also NC, if only they were counting.

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Arizona
https://twitter.com/razingarizona/status/1324489129468456961?s=20

24% (-12%/+12%) swing with respect to the previous margins.
Would be in line with a very narrow Trump victory, according to the table I posted some 20 pages ago.

Better hope those later drops from Maricopa really are more Dem.

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Arizona
https://twitter.com/razingarizona/status/1324489129468456961?s=20

24% (-12%/+12%) swing with respect to the previous margins.
Would be in line with a very narrow Trump victory, according to the table I posted some 20 pages ago.

Better hope those later drops from Maricopa really are more Dem.

Calling Maricopa lean R this election is disingenuous, it’s a Tossup.

If the drops continued the same trend as yesterday night, Maricopa would still be won by Biden (by 15K) while losing AZ...

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Too bad there aren't enough votes in Savannah to flip GA as Trump speaks.

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That was one of the most pathetic moments in the history of the country. Just sad really.

This speech is really making history, for all the wrong reasons.

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Trump getting 51% in latest Pima County drop, 12% more than the 39% he had before.

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Trump getting 51% in latest Pima County drop, 12% more than the 39% he had before.

Really hope those remaining Maricopa ballots are decent

Pima or Pinal?

Pima.

He's consistently been getting this sort of margin since yesterday night, which would lead him to a narrow win, all other things equal.
It's up to the Maricopa drop in 50 minutes to change the course of this thing.

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https://twitter.com/ZcohenCNN/status/1324849481381257218

Good grief.

Makes you wonder how many of those there were.

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https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324860798561185792

County was 57-41 Biden as of yesterday.

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https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324860798561185792

County was 57-41 Biden as of yesterday.

You mean 58-40 Trump?

True. My fault.
Trump vastly falling short, then.