New Hampshire 2018: The Bloody First

[Zaybay]

NHDEM is a great state party. Its efficient, effective, and strangely progressive, compared to other establishment DEM parties. Pappas clearly is the best candidate in this race, both electorally and ideologically. But it seems that my fear is coming to fruition, that special interest groups such as Emily's List would push terrible candidates against more electable/more progressive alternatives, female and male alike.

I hope that her history as a carpetbagger will sink her, but I would need some polling to be sure.

[Zaybay]

Dave Wasserman's take on the primary.

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Ugh. Praying for Pappas here. Messmer is my favorite out of all of these candidates, but if I was in NH-01, I'd definitely be voting for Pappas just to stop Sullivan, who's just plain awful.

[Zaybay]

So another Dem military vet in the race is attacking Sullivan accusing her of stolen valor.

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http://www.unionleader.com/state-government/congressional-candidates-military-service-records-under-attack-20180826

Hurrah! If O'Rourke can leech some votes away, then Pappas can win!

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/sethmoulton/status/1032992805285765120?s=20

That’s a pretty gross attack on her service. He’s saying that because she was a woman serving before women were allowed in ground combat roles, she shouldn’t say that she experienced combat, even though several other women in her division were killed in combat.

I have a lot of respect for Moulton, but the dude's AOC levels of full of himself.

Oh yeah, MA Dems tend to think they have more influence and power than they actually have. The only MADEM that has power is Clark, but everyone thinks they have the spotlight.

[Zaybay]

Pappas is easily going to win though. Not sure why people feel the need to drag Sullivan’s name through the mud like this. They attacked her military record & now are spreading unsourced rumours about her trying to primary CSP.

You're acting like she's not a viable candidate, my dude. $600k a quarter candidates are threats, especially ones with the national backing she has.

The entire establishment is behind Pappas, and every single candidate is attacking her.

Last time I checked, EMILY's List was pretty damn establishment. If you're talking about the state establishment, you have a point there, but to suggest she's an anti-establishment candidate is absurd. She just comes from a different, more ascendant breed. You also grossly understimate Seth Moulton's electoral machine, especially when there are two other living, breathing examples in Conor Lamb and Amy McGrath.

I'm not sure why you're miffed that every single candidate is attacking her. That's politics. Top-tier candidates get attacked, just like Pappas is for being a face of the state establishment. It's a bloodsport.

Check his endorsement list. That will explain everything.

[Zaybay]

Just got a new mailer in. Pappas has his first real direct attack on Sullivan... a week before the campaign is over.

Its still something, and Pappas doesnt need to attack Sullivan to win, he just needs to consolidate the vote. I actually have done some calling for Pappas, and we have gotten positive results, but thats just me. What are you seeing on the ground?

[Zaybay]

https://www.anselm.edu/sites/default/files/Documents/NHIOP/Polls/818%20Executive%20Summary.pdf

There was some polling for this race (although it only asked favourability)

Pappas - 53/5
Sullivan - 42/7

Pappas is at 80% name recognition, Sullivan was at 70% name recognition. Everybody’s numbers were not worth mentioning (very low). The poll is from mid-August, before ads started heating up.

Excellent!

[Zaybay]

We have more clarification on Sullivan's statement.

She didn't vote. Not for Clinton or Sanders or any of the Unidentified Men. She just stayed home.

Is anyone using this as a line of attack? And do you still think that she is favoured currently?

[Zaybay]

I really hope this sends her down so Pappas can win. We need a real progressive in this seat, not some carpetbagger moderate "#bothsides" representative.

[Zaybay]

This numbers are highly promising, and some are calling it, Im keeping the race open for now, but Pappas is a strong favorite

[Zaybay]

I really want to hear from Sullivan why she left a perfectly fine district in IL for NH, this has to be one of the most bizarre political decisions of 2018.

easy, political opportunism.