New Hampshire 2018: The Bloody First

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	New Hampshire 2018: The Bloody First « on: August 25, 2018, 04:03:41 AM »
	« edited: September 07, 2018, 03:51:35 PM by #NeverMaura »

I figured I wanted to post about stuff like this. This is mostly going to be about NH-1, considering NH-2 is Safe D. I've got a lengthy NH-1 thread on AAD, but I figured I'd post about it here.

NH-1:

Democratic Primary:

Tier 1: The front-runners.

Chris Pappas: I'd say he's the best candidate. He's been tagged as a rising star in the party, holding down an R-leaning district for 6 years in the Executive Council. He also runs a popular restaurant in Manchester – the chicken tenders are to die for. You can pretty much tell that he's the state establishment's horse in the race. He has almost every major figure in the state's endorsement, and they've been prepping him for higher office.

Despite his fairly establishment bend, he's about as progressive as CSP, and is a very formidable candidate. However, he has quite a bit of weakness in the general: he has what I like to call Rubio Syndrome. He has a tendency to rely on parroting robotic talking points. He's also trying to be too nice, resorting to indirect attacks on Sullivan's residency and stances on the issues without directly naming her. Despite not supporting MFA I'd still vote for him.

Maura Sullivan: On paper, she has a great resume. She's a former Marine captain who was appointed to lead veterans' services after her tours in Iraq. She's fundraising at breakneck pace, and is ideologically a very good fit for the district. She's also a personal friend of a rising star in Seth Moulton, long before they got into politics. So what's wrong with her?

First of all, Maura Sullivan is a Wulfric-esque moderate hero. I can at least understand being moderate on touchier issues like pipelines, but there's absolutely no reason to be moderate on the issue of Gina Haspel or Confederate monuments. Even Ralph Northam, who got dragged for running the campaign of a moderate hero, didn't waver on the latter. She's also pledged to join No Labels's caucus, and is the only one who has declined to endorse marijuana legalization. I can't tell you how many other common-sense Democratic issues there are where she's been the only one to stand against the field in the name of “moderation” and “electability”.

Second (and most importantly) of all, Maura Sullivan is a carpetbagger. She grew up in Illinois, went to school in Boston, and went to DC for work. Special interest groups (namely EMILY's List and the veteran/service lobbies) lobbied her to run in IL-3 and VA-10, and she briefly explored a run in IL-6 before moving up here last June. She only moved here last June from DC, and announced her run in August shortly after CSP retired. This actually gives her less connection than Scott Brown – at least he owned property here!

We can't really deal in black and white with her, because most of her strengths and weaknesses are double-edged swords. Sure, she's breaking records (even outpacing Annie Kuster) and can control a lot of the messaging in the race, but most of it is coming from out-of-state. She's actually raised more money from Bain Capital than she has from NH. There are a lot of people (including Pappas) who have hit her on it. It's a very powerful tool, but it only amplifies the main mark on her. Once she gets over the hump in 2018, she can lock this seat down like Kuster did. However, she's far to Shea-Porter's right, and if the vote wasn't split Pappas would be in the drivers' seat. If she wins the nomination, I will vote third-party, and there are a lot of people who would do the same.

Tier 2: If the stars align in the right way, I could see them winning

Naomi Andrews: A very interesting candidate. She was Shea-Porter's former Chief of Staff, and is fairly young as well. She's got her former boss's endorsement, and has been raising decent amounts of money. She's probably the only reason the primary is a toss-up right now – she cuts into Pappas's state establishment base and Mindi Messmer's connection to the grassroots.

Obviously, her strengths are her previous campaign infrastructure and the endorsement of the incumbent. Her big weakness is her late entry into the race – she only entered in May (when Pappas and Sullivan were starting to build their warchests). If Naomi Andrews got in sooner, she would be Tier 1.

Deaglan McEachern: Former tech executive who runs a network of small business owners. He led a group to bring Amazon's second HQ to NH. He's also the son of perennial candidate and Portsmouth-connected Paul McEachern. I thought he'd flame out like everyone else, but he's shown a surprising ability to fundraise.

Despite his pedigree, he's actually one of the more liberal candidates. Although he doesn't identify as a Berniecrat, McEachern is closer to the Bernie wing ideologically, and I'd actually consider him more progressive than Mackenzie, Sanders, and O'Rourke. He's my second choice in the race.

Mindi Messmer: Environmental scientist, first-term state rep, and my candidate of choice. She's firmly affiliated with the Bernie wing, having the voice of the NH grassroots. First came to prominence after discovering a child cancer cluster in the Seacoast. I want her to run. She also experienced sexism in the primary, being silenced by a male candidate and a male organizer at the Women's March. She'd be Tier 1 too if the Bernie field wasn't split between five candidates.

Tier 3: Everything needs to go right

Mark Mackenzie: Current state rep and former AFL-CIO head. I was high on him at first. Then, he demonstrated an inability to reach out beyond his union base – half of which has committed to Pappas. He also was the candidate I mentioned in Mindi's blurb who silenced her. He's also closely tied to Bernie, but is interestingly the only candidate who has committed to Pelosi.

Lincoln Soldati: Former mayor of Somersworth and county attorney for fundraising fairly well. Has tied himself to Bernie, and is probably about as liberal as Messmer. Other than that, there's really not much to say about him. He could conceivably win.

Tier LOL: No chance of winning. Serious flaws in the campaign.

Levi Sanders: Levi Sanders is New Hampshire politics's version of James Dolan. He's trying to carry on his father's name and legacy, but is a complete and utter failure. He joined the race after Mackenzie, Pappas, and Messmer absorbed his father's infrastructure. Even Bernie's strongest supporters don't know why he's running. He's also to the right of Bernie on a few issues, like ICE. And unlike Sullivan, he doesn't even live in the district. He lives in NH-2, right along the Vermont border.

Despite his name and national clout, he's raising about on par with the Tier 3 candidates. None of it is from in-state. In short, nobody is supporting him, nobody thought he has a chance, and nobody knows why he's running. It's especially confusing when you find out that Annie Kuster is voting for Dodd-Frank repeal in his home district.

Terence O'Rourke: Combat veteran, City Attorney for Rochester. Unfortunately, his campaign strategy seems to be online-based astroturfing, using sockpuppet accounts to boost himself and sling mud at the Tier 1s. This has earned him some flack in the party, Maura Sullivan, and even Seth Moulton. He's also expressed some concerning views, attacking the Sandy Hook kids for being active on gun control and not abolishing ICE (a surprise for me).

Paul Cardinal/Wiliam Martin: Apparently both are businessmen. Martin, very much, is a literal who.

Outlook:

Overall, I'd say the primary could go either way. I've said to believe the hype around Sullivan from the get-go. Her base isn't really split, and she has the money to flood the airwaves. Hell, there's even a more blatant carpetbagger in the race to distract from her own ties to DC. There's also the fact that Chris Pappas is going too soft on her, resorting to subtle, indirect attacks. For example, naming Sullivan for not taking a stand on Confederate monuments could have labeled her as a racist, but he chose to put a bland statement about them. It looked fairly irrelevant to the general public, as there are none in NH.

It's a shame there are five Berniecrats (and one more who's about as liberal as the rest of them), because I truly do think Messmer or McEachern could have been Tier 1 too. Sullivan's got her baggage, and Pappas is just way too nice. There's a perfect opening for a liberal lion here, but there's just not enough voters.

Moreover, the race shows a very, very delicate dance. Instead of an outright Clinton/Bernie split like KS-03, it's now a very subtle war between national interest groups and the state establishment. The state establishment is keeping things positive (as they usually do). If EMILY's List puts their thumb on the scale, they could tilt things in Maura's favor. I have Sullivan by 2 right now, as much as I hate to admit it.

Republican Primary:

Eddie Edwards: The first candidate to announce, and someone who I considered to be their best candidate. After a surprisingly close finish against David Watters, he decided to take things to a higher level and run for NH-1. And surprisingly, he's gained a lot of establishment support. Generally, the NHGOP seems to have realized that he's their best bet.

Andy Sanborn: Andy Sanborn would be a fantastic candidate. He's a state senator who locked down a swing seat (albeit a gerrymandered and ancestrally GOP one), and is a fairly popular businessman around the Concord area. His problem is fairly simple: he's an asshole. He's blackmailed his constituents, he's called Maggie Hassan a hag, and compared Obamacare to a plane crash three days after it happened. Most of the establishment actually backed Edwards for unknown inside reasons, which later turned out to be him sexually harassing a staffer on a daily basis. You can argue about his politics or whether he's right, but the guy is human garbage.

Andy Martin: Perennial candidate, and pioneer of the birther movement.

Michael Callis: Literal who, supports impeaching Trump for some reason but has generally GOP issues.

Jeffory Denaro: Literal who.

Outlook:

No tier lists for obvious reasons. In short, the primary's much uglier than the Democratic primary. Edwards is on the record saying that he couldn't support Sanborn, and walked out of a debate because he didn't pledge to support him. Edwards is already strong among the grassroots GOP, is fairly proven, and is pulling in more money from other donors. I think he wins, and I honestly think he'll get Trump's endorsement too.

General:

Assuming Edwards wins, the general election is Likely D with Pappas and Tilts D with Sullivan. I think Pappas's gloves will come off after the primary – he won't be so nice with them. I really don't know what to think about the Edwards/Sullivan matchup. As I said before, Scott Brown actually outperformed Ayotte in Rockingham and Hillsborough, especially in the border towns like Plaistow and Seabrook. But there's the issue of voter turnout, where Democrats are energized and Republicans really aren't.

Any matchup with Sanborn is Safe D, even for Sullivan or Levi. The establishment wants nothing to do with him, everyone thinks he's human garbage, and I don't see a way he doesn't get triaged. In this climate, where women are mobilized, he will lose.

NH-2:

Democratic candidates:

Annie Kuster: Atlas forced meme, and moderate Democrat. Desperately needs a primary challenge, due to her concerning votes (specifically on Dodd-Frank and surveillance). If I were in NH-2, I would not vote for her, I would campaign for any primary challenger, and I might even run myself. She's a very formidable campaigner, but NH-2 is probably the more elastic and rural of the two districts. If Levi Sanders had any political skill, he'd run here to give her a reminder of who she represents.

Republican candidates:

Steve Negron: Generic R businessman and state rep. Seems to have the most buzz, according to straw polls. He has a really creepy slogan of "Bring Annie home".

Stewart Levenson: Former VA doctor, blew the whistle on the VA conditions in Manchester. Is self-funding heavily.

Lynne Blankenbeker: A serving Navy veteran. Was a state rep, and actually won in 2010 in the heart of Concord. She, however, retired in 2012 to go on combat duty. She's actually been floated as a candidate for a while, but never really got a chance to run until now. She's probably the most conservative candidate, but is very much a gaffe machine. She has some out there views on unions and Planned Parenthood.

Bob Burns: Former Hillsborough County Treasurer and Executive Councilor, and interestingly enough, the guy who lost to Pappas in 2012. After years of people running in their own districts, we have two true carpetbaggers now. Bob Burns lives in Bedford, which is in NH-1.

Libertarian candidates:

Tom Alciere: Former NH state rep who ran as an R to get elected. Resigned after endorsing killing cops. Also got arrested for physically assaulting a 12-year-old girl. He is too crazy for DWPerry, who led the charge to get him thrown off the ballot.

Justin O'Donnell: Generic Libertarian.

General: Safe D, nothing to see here. If there was a better national mood or someone like Jeanie Forrester or Joe Kenney was running, then we could talk about a chance. But Kuster's not losing in 2018.

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Antonio the Sixth
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