Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

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So I'm here with you now to keep a close eye on election night. By the way, we have 2 AM on the clock in Ukraine

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I want to congratulate the Democrats here on a great result for the party. And I want to congratulate all Americans on the fact that the country has finally, in my opinion, begun to abandon extremism. I hope that these results will be the first step in restoring bipartisan cooperation for the benefit of the United States and the world at large.

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Who would you rather be in Nevada-Sen, MT-01, CO-03, NY-04, and NY-17 at this point?

Based on the data I see so far:

NV-Sen: CCM
MT-01: Zinke (it looks like a done deal, to me)
CO-03: Frisch
NY-04: Guillen
NY-17: Lawler

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Note. I put CA-13 as D hold

This is my view on the House of Representatives.
I think we at 10 Tossups:

AZ-01
CA-03
CA-22
CA-27
CA-41
CA-45
CO-03
NY-22
OR-05
WA-03

Of these seats I think Rs are heavily favored in NY-22 and CA-03, favored in AZ-01 and CA-27, so that puts Republican Party at 216 seats. I would say Ds are favored in CA-22 and C0-3, and I have no idea about other 4

Anyway, I think this is the easiest path for majority for Ds:
212 seats
213. CA-13
214. CA-22
215. CO-03
216. OR-05
217. WA-03
218. One of CA-41/CA-45

Thoughts?

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https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/2M31v2a.png

Would you mind sharing the link to your map with the calls filled in? I don't feel like taking the time to do it myself and wanna map out the possibilities.

Yes, of course, you're welcome

https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/9Mw4245

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https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1590784095420051456?t=ARxEe-PdgERidtQDq...

Agree here. I actually think based on this data Hodge is very slightly favored

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Thoughts on next step for Dem Senate candidates who had competitive loses..

- Cheri Beasley ...could run for Governor in 2 years... or take a position in Biden Admin then run for Tillis seat in 4 years (I think Beasley & Jeff Jackson will be the noms for Senate '26 & Gov '24 (Since Jackson became a congressman on Tues, it prob makes most sense that He is the Senate '26 candidate/ and Beasley the next Gov nominee)

- Mandela Barnes ...could take a post in the Biden Admin.. as a holdover to run for Gov in 4yrs?  He could also run for Congress in 2 yrs to stay relevant until he makes next move).

- Tim Ryan ... I see him wanting to run for Gov in 4 years.


Others:
Beto & Abrams... after 2 elections, both have large political organizations. So they will prob Build on those in some capacity- and if in 4-6 years, the political leanings of GA & TX experience meaningful shift to Dems- then go for Gov (Abrams)/ Sen or Gov (Beto... although if there is a shift to Dems the next 4 years- there would have to be some coordination with Rep Castro & Wendy Davis).

Demmings ... Either Biden Admin.. or run for a Close R house seat in 2024.

Is there a reason Stein wouldn’t run for Governor and Cooper for Senate in 2026? Cooper seemed to leave the door open to it a few months ago.

I think Jeff Jackson would blow Stein out if the water in the Primary. (Beasley would also). If Cooper runs- all 3 would definitely defer to him and not run.

But my strong suspicion is that Cooper will run for Dem Presidential Nominee / and if he doesn't get it, he will be in the cabinet if Dem wins. (Regardless what Biden currently says- He will not run... for 2 reasons... 1) I think Jill Biden will strongly urge him not to... 2) He's Politically aware enough to know there is a very good chance he will have challengers & a high probability he would lose the primary.  (I think the top 3 likely serious contenders are 1) Buttigieg ... 2)KY Gov Beshear- who is the most popular Dem Gov in the country currently...despite being in a red state) ... 3) Cooper

Biden is not gonna not run again after this midterm. Especially not if he keeps the dang House.

It really doesn't matter if he decides to run- I feel pretty confident he will not win the Primary... (this is also the real risk that will eventually lead him to decide not to run.)

Well, Biden will win primary very easily if he decides to run (very, very likely). He is effective leader for Democrats, relatively popular with base and relatively unpolarizating figure. There is no reason for him not to run (except health issues), and there is no reason for the base to reject him

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NYT has the Dems at 191 and Rs at 209. I'm trying to characterize the rest of the seats as best as I can. This is just a rough extrapolation, so please don't quote this post mocking me if any of this doesn't pan out. I'm trying to predict just based on our current information.

Right now, I would characterize an additional 13 seats as "more likely D than R."

1. ME-02
2. CO-08
3. WA-08
4. WA-03
5. NV-01
6. OR-04
7. CA-06
8. CA-09
9. CA-21
10. CA-26
11. CA-35
12. CA-38
13. AK-AL

I would also characterize six seats as "more likely R than D."

1. CA-22
2. CA-27
3. CA-45
4. CA-40
5. AZ-06
6. AZ-02

There are another ten seats that I would call "tossups," but Democrats lead in them.

1. NY-18
2. NV-03
3. NV-04
4. OR-06
5. CA-41
6. CA-46
7. CA-47
8. CA-49
9. AZ-04
10. AZ-01

And finally, six seats that I would call "tossups," but Republicans lead in them.

1. MD-06
2. CO-03
3. CA-13
4. NY-22
5. OR-05
6. CA-03

Factoring in my "more likely" characterizations, right now I have the Dems at 204 and the Republicans at 215. The Republicans will hit 221 if they hold those six tossup seats they currently lead in, but numerous people on this site have suggested that most (if not all) of those six could very easily swing Dem.

A D house would require the Democrats to win all ten of their tossups, plus four of the Republican tossups. That would put them at exactly 218.

Pretty good job, but I would make some changes. My understatement of the situation is something like this:

"more likely D than R."

1. ME-02
2. CO-08
3. WA-08
4. NV-01
5. OR-04
6. CA-06
7. CA-09
8. CA-21
9. CA-26
10. CA-35
11. CA-38
12. AK-AL
13. NY-18 (moved from third category)
14. NV-03 (moved from third category)
15. NV-04 (moved from third category)
16. OR -06 (moved from third category)
17. CA-46 (moved from third category)
18. AZ-04 (moved from third category)
19. MD-06 (moved from fourth category)

I would also characterize six seats as "more likely R than D."

1. CA-27
2. CA-45
3. CA-40
4. AZ-06
5. AZ-02
6. NY-22 (moved from fourth category)

There are another ten seats that I would call "tossups," but Democrats lead in them.
1. CA-41
2. CA-47
3. CA-49
4. AZ-01
5. WA-03 (moved from first category)

And finally, six seats that I would call "tossups," but Republicans lead in them.

1. CO-03
2. CA-13
3. OR-05
4. CA-03
5. CA-22 (moved from second category)

I'm generally more optimistic about Democrats chances, but we'll see

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Also I think we can confidently call AZ-04 and MD-06 for Dems now

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By the way, if Democrats indeed fall short of a single seat, you could also blame Charlie Crist instead of New York Democrats. He threw away a swing district in Florida for a vanity run that he could never win. Should have remained in the House and let some other sacraficial lamb lose to DeSandwich.

On the other hand, Andy Levin also could be blamed for running against fellow Democrat in super-safe district instead of running for a swing MI-10, which he would probably won

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https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590810818937229313?s=20&t=6eWGf2S...

Good batch

I wonder if this means that AZ-06 can be D hold?

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https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590810818937229313?s=20&t=6eWGf2S...
Good batch

I wonder if this means that AZ-06 can be D hold?

Is AZ-96 the Engel-Ciscomani seat?

Yes, it is

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https://twitter.com/HWLavelleMaps/status/1590837793487745024?t=02ugy86AFGo_4Pgei...

I think Engel actually might pull this off. At least it looks more likely with each update. But we have to wait for Pima

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Someone tell me if I’m wrong on any of this because the constant bombardment of info

CO-3 seemed D and now appears R
CO-8 seemed D and now appears tilt R?
MD-6 seemed D and now appears R
CA-41 seemed R and could go D….

Which puts the house either 100% R or R with 1 more GOP win?

The Senate races appear to being going D at least in AZ and probably NV

Governors ….Arizona is a tossup and Nevada is a Likely R, Oregon is obviously D despite no call.

NO, but can go either way
NO
NO
Kinda of

Can you just not complain how everything is bad until we get a clearer picture?

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Someone tell me if I’m wrong on any of this because the constant bombardment of info

CO-3 seemed D and now appears R
CO-8 seemed D and now appears tilt R?
MD-6 seemed D and now appears R
CA-41 seemed R and could go D….

Which puts the house either 100% R or R with 1 more GOP win?

The Senate races appear to being going D at least in AZ and probably NV

Governors ….Arizona is a tossup and Nevada is a Likely R, Oregon is obviously D despite no call.

NO, but can go either way
NO
NO
Kinda of

Can you just not complain how everything is bad until we get a clearer picture?

Where is the complaint?….

Okay, I apologize for being so harsh, it's just that your earlier posts here about how bad things are going made me write this. Forgive me, please. Actually, there's no telling who will win the House, I'd say 50/50, so we'll see

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Democrats path for the House majority just became much more harder without CO-03. But Democratic majority in the House is still a possibility. I see this new path without CO-03 through CA-13, CA-22, CA-41, OR-05, WA-03 and one of AZ-01/AZ-06/CA-27/CA-45

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I think this is the easiest Democrats path for the House majority. 218th seat is either CA-27 or AZ-06


At the same time, I think this is the most likely outcome, in my opinion. WA-03 and CA-22 can go either way, so assuming 1 for Ds and 1 for Rs, 219-216 R is the most likely outcome

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https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1591041838718152706?s=20&t=k7zigLPadtg...

This very much. I'm glad SPM lost

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This is the House picture according to WaPo. They don't have a favorite in WA-03 as for now, and by their estimates Reps are favored in 218 seats, while Dems are favored in 216 seats. If you believe WaPo's forecasts, the Democrats path to a majority in the House lies through winning WA-03 and one of AZ-01/AZ-06/CA-41

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This is the House picture according to WaPo. They don't have a favorite in WA-03 as for now, and by their estimates Reps are favored in 218 seats, while Dems are favored in 216 seats. If you believe WaPo's forecasts, the Democrats path to a majority in the House lies through winning WA-03 and one of AZ-01/AZ-06/CA-41

Praying for MGP in WA-03 if only for the cool fact about the whole Pacific coast going blue.

Praying for MGP there so that absolutely pro-putin lunatic who beat JHB in the primary gets what he deserved

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https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/wqgeGE5.png

This is the House picture according to WaPo. They don't have a favorite in WA-03 as for now, and by their estimates Reps are favored in 218 seats, while Dems are favored in 216 seats. If you believe WaPo's forecasts, the Democrats path to a majority in the House lies through winning WA-03 and one of AZ-01/AZ-06/CA-41

From what I've seen Dems have reason to be hopeful in CA-41 and AZ-01. AZ-06 goes Republican though I think.

Oh my god, are we actually going to do this?

No because we are not winning García’s seat lol. Still I do think it’s a very admirable performance, and honestly a 218 GOP House would be a headache so I am okay with them having it.

It all depends on ballots remaining uncounted, and we don't know for sure how they will break. By the way, if Smith blows it out in CA-27, Democratic candidates still can absolutely win two of the AZ-01/AZ-06/CA-41

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https://twitter.com/OregonianPol/status/1591143483162693641?t=6wz3cz5XNfQlL8guFm...

I would say this is still a premature call, but Chavez-DeRemer is favored here. Democrats path for majority just became even more thin

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Based on NYT data this would be my ranking

195 seats NYT has called for Democrats

Democrats are heavily favored in these districts
196. AK-AL
197. AZ-04
198. CA-06
199. CA-09
200. CA-21
201. CA-26
202. CA-35
203. CA-38
204. CO-08
205. ME-02
206. MD-06
207. CA-47
208. CA-49
209. NV-01
210. NV-03
211. NV-04
212. OR-06

Tossup, but Democrats slighty favored
213. CA-13
214. WA-03
215. AZ-01

Pure Tossup
216. CA-22
217. CA-41

Tossup, but Republicans slightly favored
218. AZ-06 (median seat)
219. CA-27

Republicans are heavily favored in these districts
220. CA-03
221. OR-05
222. CA-45
223. NY-22
224. CO-03

So by my estimates 218-217 R is the most likely outcome, but we'll see, as I always say

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With Democrats retaining the chamber a receding dream, a GOP house majority of one would be hilarious:

Republicans: 218
Democrats: 217

Realistically speaking, can we get there?  

I think as for now this is the most likely outcome, so yes we can

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I'm confused why so many people think AZ-06 is still close to toss-up.  Hasn't the race been called for Ciscomani by the AP?

It was called by DDHQ, but they can be wrong. It all depends on Pima ballots. Ciscomani is slighty favored, but Engel absolutely can make it