Official North Carolina Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Verily]

isnt't 1/3 black in NC incredibly low? or is that just my impression?

In addition to Alcon's explanation, who knows what they mean when they say 1/3. Could be anything from 31% to 36%; they'd call any of those one-third. And 33.3% wouldn't be incredibly low anyway.

[Verily]

They were likely included into the exit polls, just like they have been in every state.

Uh...no?  I doubt that.  They didn't do it in California, and it showed.

They usually only do that with Washington and Oregon because the vast majority of votes there are VBM.  And if they do it, it's all a phone poll.

I don't see what's led you to believe early voters are included in exit polls.

I'm pretty sure it's done regularly in Sweden, for what it's worth. Nothing, that is.

I achieve that on a regular basis. Wait, what were we talking about?

[Verily]

Exit poll: Obama +14

55-41.

[Verily]

59-36 Clinton among whites
Whites are 63%
Poll votes only - no early votes

That would portend a much larger Obama victory than 14 points, I would think. Perhaps not.

[Verily]

Did Edwards get like 3% of the vote?

I think Hillary, Obama, and Gravel were the three on the ballot IIRC.

Uncommitted is an option, too, I think.

[Verily]

This racial divide is absolutely absurd. Obama is winning 92% of the black vote. Imagine if Hillary won 92% of the white vote? There would be day and night segments on CNN and MSNBC about how racist North Carolina was..

Imagine that Hillary Clinton were the first serious white candidate to ever run for President. Imagine that you, as a fifty-year-old white man, grew up being called a "cracker" and refused jobs because of your skin color. Imagine that you suddenly felt that maybe there was some chance that such things wouldn't happen to other white people in the future if only you could get a white person elected President and show the black majority that white people weren't lazy and incompetent criminals.

Then it wouldn't be so racist, would it?

[Verily]

This racial divide is absolutely absurd. Obama is winning 92% of the black vote. Imagine if Hillary won 92% of the white vote? There would be day and night segments on CNN and MSNBC about how racist North Carolina was..

Imagine that Hillary Clinton were the first serious white candidate to ever run for President. Imagine that you, as a fifty-year-old white man, grew up being called a "cracker" and refused jobs because of your skin color. Imagine that you suddenly felt that maybe there was some chance that such things wouldn't happen to other white people in the future if only you could get a white person elected President and show the black majority that white people weren't lazy and incompetent criminals.

Then it wouldn't be so racist, would it?

Okay.  But that still doesn't explain the white-guilt afflicted liberals.

White Obama supporters support him primarily for other reasons, although some will cite race as an added benefit. (I tend to cringe when they do because they're often very bad at articulating it, and of course the argument can be applied in a similar fashion to women.) There is nothing wrong with being white and supporting the notion that a black President would show the country that blacks aren't bad, much as there was nothing wrong with being a white person marching for civil rights in the 1960s.

[Verily]

This racial divide is absolutely absurd. Obama is winning 92% of the black vote. Imagine if Hillary won 92% of the white vote? There would be day and night segments on CNN and MSNBC about how racist North Carolina was..

Imagine that Hillary Clinton were the first serious white candidate to ever run for President. Imagine that you, as a fifty-year-old white man, grew up being called a "cracker" and refused jobs because of your skin color. Imagine that you suddenly felt that maybe there was some chance that such things wouldn't happen to other white people in the future if only you could get a white person elected President and show the black majority that white people weren't lazy and incompetent criminals.

Then it wouldn't be so racist, would it?

What a crock of sh**t. We'd hear the Obama campaign cry wolf if Hillary won 90% of the white vote.

Well, yes, if whites had the same history as they do now, and not the same history as blacks, it would be absurd and racist. And I won't deny that there are some racist black supporters of Obama, too, albeit in small numbers. By and large, there is a very compelling reason for blacks to vote for Obama, one I imagine you'd have a very hard time resisting if you were black.

[Verily]

I love the hype on MSNBC and CNN about how North Carolina is apparently so much bigger than Indiana. Some commentator said that NC is basically "double the size" of Indiana.

Electoral votes:

Indiana - 11
North Carolina - 15

Better comparison is CDs; 13-9 is considerably larger (although not double).

[Verily]

Nice Buncombe delivered for Obama.

Josh is vindicated, I guess.

[Verily]

Zogby hasn't been *that* bad during the primaries, especially in the beginning.

They've been inconsistent: sometimes great and sometimes terrible, but never mediocre.