IA-Selzer: Trump +7

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https://twitter.com/dcg1114/status/1322689964249882624

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Typical Atlas. Of course, Trump supporters and Doomers are in here salivating over one poll lol.

Meanwhile, ignoring all of the other great polls that came out today for Biden. And ignoring the fact that this is not 2012 and Iowa is irrelevant to Biden's chances of victory.

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Wait, is Trump really leading the youth vote in this poll?

It's a heavily white midwestern state, of course he is.

Stop it. Hillary won the youth vote in Iowa in 2016. There is no way that Trump is winning it this year against Biden.

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https://twitter.com/EScrimshaw/status/1322704822383104001

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This poll is a bad indicator for Biden, but there are so many good indicators for Biden that he's very likely to win, and win comfortably, anyway. I was hoping that this would disprove my suspicions that IA and OH polls are underestimating Trump by a few points and Biden will fall short there, but unfortunately a gold-standard poll with evidence for that hasn't emerged. However, IA isn't a tipping-point state, Biden would be well ahead in the EC and PV if he is winning here (and it's possible that IA trends to the right so that Biden wins an EC and PV landslide but still loses it).

This poll is a major outlier. C'mon man.

They were saying the same thing in 2016!!

Why have you turned into a mega doomer all of a sudden?

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Good poll for Trump, suggests Tuesday night wont be a complete massacre.

Um, this poll is an outlier and the crosstabs are trash.