IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[charcuterie]

Election Day can't come soon enough.... 

[Bootes Void]

Election Day can't come soon enough.... 

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I’m not really getting the whole “this is Trump’s best poll of the whole cycle” claim.

Trump has had several better polls in Florida than this one.  In particular, there was a WaPo poll in late September showing Trump +4 among LVs.  There have been multiple high quality polls showing the race tied or +1 either way in that state.

This poll is a much smaller and less pivotal state, and still shows a swing toward Biden.  So I don’t understand what the big deal is.

[Alben Barkley]

I’m not really getting the whole “this is Trump’s best poll of the whole cycle” claim.

Trump has had several better polls in Florida than this one.  In particular, there was a WaPo poll in late September showing Trump +4 among LVs.  There have been multiple high quality polls showing the race tied or +1 either way in that state.

This poll is a much smaller and less pivotal state, and still shows a swing toward Biden.  So I don’t understand what the big deal is.

Biggest reason I say it might be is that it’s coming so late, and echoes a similar poll from Selzer in 2016. Florida has been pretty all over the place this whole time too, but Iowa was looking pretty consistent across the board recently in showing a tight race that tilted Biden if anything until now.

[JRP1994]

https://twitter.com/WendepunktD/status/1322680700768845824

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/WendepunktD/status/1322680700768845824

How is anyone surprised by American stupidity?

[woodley park]

https://twitter.com/WendepunktD/status/1322680700768845824

Just days after he stranded in the cold a bunch of Iowans that went to his Omaha rally. Really just depressing. I am glad Iowa isn’t a must win state but the parallels to 2016 are unwelcome.

[Bootes Void]

Its been a couple hours after this poll come out, anyone with a clear head want to make something of it or is it an outlier?

[WD]

Its been a couple hours after this poll come out, anyone with a clear head want to make something of it or is it an outlier?

Most likely an outlier. Trump isn’t up by 15 in IA-01 lol

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Its been a couple hours after this poll come out, anyone with a clear head want to make something of it or is it an outlier?

Most likely an outlier. Trump isn’t up by 15 in IA-01 lol

Considering the MoE on that crosstab (7.1), it doesn't imply the topline is junk.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kamala Harris is Veep and doesn't play very well in Iowa, she is an AA socialist and like Warren whom was another socialist, they got blown out in Iowa. Klobuchar did very well in IA

[Hammy]

Its been a couple hours after this poll come out, anyone with a clear head want to make something of it or is it an outlier?

With one district having almost 20% undecideds and both only barely reaching 40%, I'd toss the whole thing.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Kamala Harris is Veep and doesn't play very well in Iowa, she is an AA socialist and like Warren whom was another socialist, they got blown out in Iowa. Klobuchar did very well in IA

Incredibly rude to out someone in Alcoholics Anonymous like that. When, where, and to whom to make that announcement is a personal decision and not for members of this forum to do. Very disappointed in this post.

[Cashew]

17 pages? This is embarrassing.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This thread is Exhibit A why I'm not going to be looking at Atlas on E-Day

Will you be on discord

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don’t understand why you’d ever weight the result of a presidential poll by congressional district.  It’s not meaningful division of the populations in this context.  If you want to make sure you have a geographically representative sample, weight by metro area or media market or something similar.  If you want to use the same poll for congressional results, stratify the sample by CD.  Weighting by CD shouldn’t bias the result in any way, but it will slightly increase the margin of error.

[Splash]

Democrats in Denial:

https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1322743475004153857

 

[charcuterie]

17 pages? This is embarrassing.

Did the Wisconsin +17 Biden poll get this much attention? These two insane results are clearly existing in different universes...

Not to say this result cannot happen, it's just jarring compared to the rest of the polling environment.

[cp]

17 pages?! Ffs, Atlas. I'm not wading through all that to find out if someone else has said this, but here's my piece ...

This poll and the reaction to it reminded me a bit of the Marquette poll of WI that came out less than a week before E-day in 2016. It was hugely anticipated because the pollster was considered the gold standard for the state and there hadn't been a top shelf poll of the state in two weeks.

It was Clinton +6.

[Badger]

Election Day can't come soon enough.... 

Don't expect relief. I'm anticipating that the follow-up Shenanigans and craziness will run anywhere from a couple days of suspense to possibly a couple weeks.

Trump is not going to concede and we'll still be filing frivolous lawsuits most likely, but depending on how close the election is determines whether or not he's standing on his own trying to sweep back the sea before the end of next week, or before Thanksgiving.

 please God for everyone's sake make it the former

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I’m not really getting the whole “this is Trump’s best poll of the whole cycle” claim.

Trump has had several better polls in Florida than this one.  In particular, there was a WaPo poll in late September showing Trump +4 among LVs.  There have been multiple high quality polls showing the race tied or +1 either way in that state.

This poll is a much smaller and less pivotal state, and still shows a swing toward Biden.  So I don’t understand what the big deal is.

Biggest reason I say it might be is that it’s coming so late, and echoes a similar poll from Selzer in 2016. Florida has been pretty all over the place this whole time too, but Iowa was looking pretty consistent across the board recently in showing a tight race that tilted Biden if anything until now.

Well now WaPo has Trump +2 just as late.  That poll seems much better for Trump than this one.

[Pericles]

This poll is a bad indicator for Biden, but there are so many good indicators for Biden that he's very likely to win, and win comfortably, anyway. I was hoping that this would disprove my suspicions that IA and OH polls are underestimating Trump by a few points and Biden will fall short there, but unfortunately a gold-standard poll with evidence for that hasn't emerged. However, IA isn't a tipping-point state, Biden would be well ahead in the EC and PV if he is winning here (and it's possible that IA trends to the right so that Biden wins an EC and PV landslide but still loses it).

[Lief 🗽]

Democrats in Denial:

https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1322743475004153857

 

They were saying the same thing in 2016!!

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

This poll is a bad indicator for Biden, but there are so many good indicators for Biden that he's very likely to win, and win comfortably, anyway. I was hoping that this would disprove my suspicions that IA and OH polls are underestimating Trump by a few points and Biden will fall short there, but unfortunately a gold-standard poll with evidence for that hasn't emerged. However, IA isn't a tipping-point state, Biden would be well ahead in the EC and PV if he is winning here (and it's possible that IA trends to the right so that Biden wins an EC and PV landslide but still loses it).

This poll is a major outlier. C'mon man.

They were saying the same thing in 2016!!

Why have you turned into a mega doomer all of a sudden?

[wbrocks67]

This poll is... just so bad. So Selzer found a steady race for the entire summer and early fall, and then it surges from a tied race in that time period (multiple times), to Biden suddenly .... crashing and losing 6/7% of his vote share?

Not to mention this is their final poll, and we're still seeing margins of 48/41, with 11% undecided/other, and 12% in the senate race. That's unacceptable. Also, we're talking like Hillary 2016 national margins if Trump is up by 7 here.

Also LOL at Biden going from a +12 lead with Indies last time to…. Trump with a +14 lead now? I mean people really can't be taking this seriously? Selzer is embarrassing themselves here.