Washington state megathread

[CultureKing]

And Baird endorses (drum roll):

Denny Heck!

http://www.columbian.com/news/2010/mar/13/baird-endorses-heck-for-3rd-district/

I feel like at this point there really are only four real candidates left. Heck, Pridemore, Herrera and Castillo. Anyone know if any polls have been done of the race? I have been dying to get my hands on some hard numbers...

[CultureKing]

The Democratic side is quickly turning into establishment, old-school Democrats (Heck) vs. progressive, netroots, Obama-brought-in Democrats (Pridemore).

It's also clear they're trying to knock Pridemore out of the primary before the filing deadline.

Hopefully the democrats will be able to get a better slit than the democrats and lead to a D v D scenario. That would be amazing.

[CultureKing]

So how do you think this impacts his chances at becoming the next governor of Washington state?

It impacts his chances negatively and suggests McKenna is more concerned about the GOP primary than I thought.  Is Rossi seriously considering running again?

The Democratic base, which previously had been ambivalent about the AG, is going to come out blasting.  He has just stepped on one of the party's core issues.  bgwah is correct -- McKenna now has no chance in King County.

...or thurston, or whatcom, or San Juan. Basically this is the sort of thing that will really rile up the left and make the center question him. Though really it does help him alot in terms of the primary (though remember people we have the jungle primary so everyone votes, making the tea party much less powerful.

[CultureKing]

Dem field in WA-03 is down to three:

http://www.columbian.com/news/2010/mar/25/independent-rodriguez-salazar-withdraws-from-3rd-d/

So I take it with the top-two primary system, there's a lot of pressure to keep the number of legitimate party candidates down to two now (so there's the guarantee that at least one of them will move on to the general)?

It definitely helps, at the moment there are two real dems in the primary plus a peace activist, while for the republicans they have two(ish) candidates left plus a tea party guy and some military dude. Truthfully the republican primary could be very fragmented...   

[CultureKing]

Dem field in WA-03 is down to three:

http://www.columbian.com/news/2010/mar/25/independent-rodriguez-salazar-withdraws-from-3rd-d/

So I take it with the top-two primary system, there's a lot of pressure to keep the number of legitimate party candidates down to two now (so there's the guarantee that at least one of them will move on to the general)?

Personally I think it has more to do with the establishment trying to clear the field for Heck than the nature of the top-two primary, but you may be right. And if so it's another reason why the top-two sucks - the party establishment just quietly pushes candidates out of the race and de facto selects the nominee behind the scenes out of fear of messing up the general election. How democratic.

Yeah, though to be fair none of the candidates who have dropped out so far really had any chance of winning the primary, now should the democrats somehow get Pridemore to drop out then it definitely would smack of establishment interference.

[CultureKing]

Does anyone know if Democrats will be able to maintain control of the Washington and Oregon legislatures, or if they will be overwhelmed by Republicans this year? 

The democrats would have to lose a huge number of seats in both states to lose their majorities which basically are near super-majorities (at least I think so). I feel like while the national scene may be heavily tilted towards a republican wave there may not be as much of a move on the local level in the Pacific Northwest.

[CultureKing]

Why isn't Tim Eyman running for office in his own right instead of continually hiding behind his initiatives?  This would be the perfect year for him to do that. 

Because even in a year like this he would lose handily. There were a few scandals involving his fund raising for initiatives that could easily be exploited. Plus he wants to destroy government, not run it.

[CultureKing]

Heck seems to have outraised the entire field combined. Some of it's self-funding, but that's still pretty impressive.

With the entire Washington State Democratic establishment behind him I'd be kind of surprised if he hadn't raised that kind of money.

I visited their campaign offices a while ago and they were humming, with everything geared towards fund raising. Has he released 1st quarter fund raising numbers yet?

[CultureKing]

Amount raised so far on GOP side of things for the 3rd district:
Herrera: $197,000
Castillo: $162,731

Castillo should not be counted out by the way. I feel like the GOP/media has simply chosen Herrera as the republican candidate...

Meanwhile Pridemore just won the endorsement of the Sierra Club (though honestly I feel like Pridemore needed to do much better on the fund-raising side of things to still be considered competitive). Though it seems like the liberals in Olympia are finally beginning to understand that Pridemore is the more liberal candidate on the dems side of things, could mean a shift...

[CultureKing]

Rep. Chris Hurst (D-31st District) is going to run for re-election with the party label "Independent Democrat" and says others may do the same.

Hopefully he and any others who do this will also be "independent" of any financial support from the party committees.

Didn't the state Democratic party cause a stink in 2008 because candidates were listing themselves as under the "Democrat Party"?

I don't remember, though I do remember that Rossi registered under the "GOP Party", idiot.

[CultureKing]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011656907_incometax21m.html

Eek. Just what the Republicans would need to GOTV and erase all 2006-2008 gains the Democrats made.

I am not so sure, taxing the rich usually seems to prove pretty popular, and it helps that Gates seems to be one of the main proponents of the measure.

[CultureKing]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011656907_incometax21m.html

Eek. Just what the Republicans would need to GOTV and erase all 2006-2008 gains the Democrats made.

I am not so sure, taxing the rich usually seems to prove pretty popular, and it helps that Gates seems to be one of the main proponents of the measure.

Gates, Sr., that is.

Well, yes. But simply having the Gates name (even if it is the wrong one) should help, it basically puts out the idea of: "Hey, it's ok! Tax us richies!"

[CultureKing]

Does anyone else think Democrats (or anyone) voluntarily putting "Independent" in their name is an immensely dumb decision?

Yes, and I would fully expect my idiot representative (Tim Sheldon) to pull a trick like this. I almost want to just elect a republican to get rid of him.
Speaking of which is there any chance that the district will change enough after 2010 to make it more difficult for Sheldon (either a major shift to the left by incorporating more of Olympia or a major shift to the right by moving to become a more rural district)?

[CultureKing]

SUSA has potentially very good numbers for I-1077

A proposed initiative would create an income tax in Washington state on people making $200,000 per year and on couples making twice that. It would also cut the state's portion of the property tax by 20%, and end the business and occupation tax for small businesses. Do you support or do you oppose this proposed initiative?

66% Support
27% Oppose

Question wording is bit too favorable for the "Support" side IMO; it frames the initiative pretty much exactly how they want it to be looked at.

While I would very much like for this initiative to pass, what chance would it have of being upheld in court if it did?

No one really knows. The precedent hasn't been tested by the State Supreme Court in decades.

Out of curiosity -assuming it does reach the state Supreme Court, on what basis would they overturn an income tax initiative once voters approve it?

I am pretty sure the state constitution does not allow for an income tax.

[CultureKing]

Republican Senate candidate Chris Widener, who lives next door to Dino Rossi, mysteriously dropped out of the race today only two days after attending a primary debate.

I heard Widener in an interview say that Rossi was still undecided about the race, and that he was looking to get out whether or not Rossi ran, but I have a feeling that Rossi is leaning towards running right now.

Really? I feel like Rossi would be better off trying to get into some other office, Murray sort of has a huge war chest to take him down with, or does he just like getting rejected over and over?

[CultureKing]

http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2010/05/05/1418238/lyndens-mayberry-to-run-as-independent.html

lol

Amusing. It's too bad the top-two primary won't allow him to split the Republican vote in the general

How do you wind up owing $900,000 in back taxes???

[CultureKing]

Sean Salazar, another random Republican running for Senate, has dropped out.

I've also heard rumor that Cheryl Crist is about to drop out of the 3rd District race but I'm not sure I believe it.

Filing week starts Monday.

Yeah I feel like the "peace" candidate probably would not quit that easily.

[CultureKing]

Finally a real top-two primary poll. SurveyUSA:

Murray (D): 37%
Rossi (R): 33%
Didier (R): 5%
Akers (R): 3%
Burr (D): 1%
Goodspaceguy (D): 1%
Said (Centrist): 1%
All others: 0%
Undecided: 19%

So far no Didier-mentum

Weird, I though Didier's strength was much stronger than that. Then again often the most vocal movements are those that find the least traction.

[CultureKing]

Hmmm... I guess I will go ahead and do a WA-03 prediction as well (though living in Olympia probably gives me a bit of a bias compared to the rest of the district):
Heck: 41%
Herrera: 23%
Castillo: 21%
Hedrick: 10%
Crist: 4%
Stevens: 1%

Though it is nearly impossible to predict what will happen with the republicans, personally I am hoping for a Hedrick upset, just for the hilarity of the situation for the GOP.

Senate:
Murray: 46%
Rossi: 28%
Didiers: 19%
Akers: 4%
Others: 3%

Never underestimate the number of right-wing crazies in the Republican party here in Washington, I was even tempted to give a larger share to Didiers.

[CultureKing]

Ugh, why can't thurston county get its act together? CD 3 is going to be quite off until a report from there comes in. Even King has reported some numbers. I guess we will just have to wait for tomorrow.


By the way, anyone else blown away by Crist's over performance and Castillo's under performance so far?

[CultureKing]

Does anyone else kinda feel bad for Dino?  Three spirited campaigns...you almost have to wonder if he had staked out claims as being an unquestionable moderate on one major issue area, how well he would have done.

Not in the slightest.  I am sick of seeing his face and watching his perpetual campaign of sleaze, hypocrisy, lies, anti-government babbling and thinly veiled social conservatism for the last 6 years.  The wave was the main thing which kept him competitive this time.  Otherwise Murray would have flattened him like a pancake.  He never staked out a moderate position because he is not a moderate.  

I wish Rossi well in his return to a real estate career.  Maybe we won't have him to kick around anymore.  

We won't be rid of Dino until he gets taken out by 15%+. These close contests simply keep his hopes up. Someday though he will fade away, we just need to give him a bigger smack of reality.

[CultureKing]

And Washington gets its 10th district! Here's hoping for an Olympia-based district.

[CultureKing]

Once the state gets itself into gear and uploads the 2010 precinct results, I think I'm going to have some map fun with the initiatives.

Candy tax repeal map is ridiculously clean in most places.  For instance, mainland Kitsap County approved the repeal 68%-32% while Bainbridge Island rejected it 33%-67%.  That's going to be a perdy map.

Stupid Candy tax repeal.
By the way has anyone else noticed NPR's near constant coverage of "how are state tax cuts affecting you?" At first it was nice to see someone highlight the human aspect of the losses but it has slowly become creepy or overwhelming the intensity of the coverage.

[CultureKing]

We got the monies!

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/boeingaerospace/2014320058_tanker25.html

So maybe we will be able to afford not completely killing off the state government? Or perhaps try to resurrect it in a few years?

[CultureKing]

All his plan does is take money from other parts of the budget and redirects it to education. It's a bit like cutting off your foot so you can lose weight. You solve one problem but create another one that's much worse.

What we really need is a tax increase to fund greater education spending but of course that's not on the table because OUR STATE TAX CODE AND BUDGET SYSTEM SUCKS SO BADLY.

...But Tim Eyman and direct democracy RULZ!1!!11!