Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[CultureKing]

Does anyone else think Democrats (or anyone) voluntarily putting "Independent" in their name is an immensely dumb decision?

Yes, and I would fully expect my idiot representative (Tim Sheldon) to pull a trick like this. I almost want to just elect a republican to get rid of him.
Speaking of which is there any chance that the district will change enough after 2010 to make it more difficult for Sheldon (either a major shift to the left by incorporating more of Olympia or a major shift to the right by moving to become a more rural district)?

[bgwah]

Does anyone else think Democrats (or anyone) voluntarily putting "Independent" in their name is an immensely dumb decision?

Yes, and I would fully expect my idiot representative (Tim Sheldon) to pull a trick like this. I almost want to just elect a republican to get rid of him.
Speaking of which is there any chance that the district will change enough after 2010 to make it more difficult for Sheldon (either a major shift to the left by incorporating more of Olympia or a major shift to the right by moving to become a more rural district)?

It's population will only need to change about ~1,600, so at a glance I don't think it will have any major changes. It's always possible, though.

[Meeker]

SUSA has potentially very good numbers for I-1077

A proposed initiative would create an income tax in Washington state on people making $200,000 per year and on couples making twice that. It would also cut the state's portion of the property tax by 20%, and end the business and occupation tax for small businesses. Do you support or do you oppose this proposed initiative?

66% Support
27% Oppose

Question wording is bit too favorable for the "Support" side IMO; it frames the initiative pretty much exactly how they want it to be looked at.

[RI]

SUSA has potentially very good numbers for I-1077

A proposed initiative would create an income tax in Washington state on people making $200,000 per year and on couples making twice that. It would also cut the state's portion of the property tax by 20%, and end the business and occupation tax for small businesses. Do you support or do you oppose this proposed initiative?

66% Support
27% Oppose

Question wording is bit too favorable for the "Support" side IMO; it frames the initiative pretty much exactly how they want it to be looked at.

While I would very much like for this initiative to pass, what chance would it have of being upheld in court if it did?

[bgwah]

66% Support
27% Oppose

LOL. Wow.

It'll be fun watching the Republicans cry over this one.

SUSA has potentially very good numbers for I-1077

A proposed initiative would create an income tax in Washington state on people making $200,000 per year and on couples making twice that. It would also cut the state's portion of the property tax by 20%, and end the business and occupation tax for small businesses. Do you support or do you oppose this proposed initiative?

66% Support
27% Oppose

Question wording is bit too favorable for the "Support" side IMO; it frames the initiative pretty much exactly how they want it to be looked at.

While I would very much like for this initiative to pass, what chance would it have of being upheld in court if it did?

Who knows, but with those numbers they might as well just go for a constitutional amendment.

[Meeker]

SUSA has potentially very good numbers for I-1077

A proposed initiative would create an income tax in Washington state on people making $200,000 per year and on couples making twice that. It would also cut the state's portion of the property tax by 20%, and end the business and occupation tax for small businesses. Do you support or do you oppose this proposed initiative?

66% Support
27% Oppose

Question wording is bit too favorable for the "Support" side IMO; it frames the initiative pretty much exactly how they want it to be looked at.

While I would very much like for this initiative to pass, what chance would it have of being upheld in court if it did?

No one really knows. The precedent hasn't been tested by the State Supreme Court in decades.

[Frodo]

SUSA has potentially very good numbers for I-1077

A proposed initiative would create an income tax in Washington state on people making $200,000 per year and on couples making twice that. It would also cut the state's portion of the property tax by 20%, and end the business and occupation tax for small businesses. Do you support or do you oppose this proposed initiative?

66% Support
27% Oppose

Question wording is bit too favorable for the "Support" side IMO; it frames the initiative pretty much exactly how they want it to be looked at.

While I would very much like for this initiative to pass, what chance would it have of being upheld in court if it did?

No one really knows. The precedent hasn't been tested by the State Supreme Court in decades.

Out of curiosity -assuming it does reach the state Supreme Court, on what basis would they overturn an income tax initiative once voters approve it?

[CultureKing]

SUSA has potentially very good numbers for I-1077

A proposed initiative would create an income tax in Washington state on people making $200,000 per year and on couples making twice that. It would also cut the state's portion of the property tax by 20%, and end the business and occupation tax for small businesses. Do you support or do you oppose this proposed initiative?

66% Support
27% Oppose

Question wording is bit too favorable for the "Support" side IMO; it frames the initiative pretty much exactly how they want it to be looked at.

While I would very much like for this initiative to pass, what chance would it have of being upheld in court if it did?

No one really knows. The precedent hasn't been tested by the State Supreme Court in decades.

Out of curiosity -assuming it does reach the state Supreme Court, on what basis would they overturn an income tax initiative once voters approve it?

I am pretty sure the state constitution does not allow for an income tax.

[Frodo]

SUSA has potentially very good numbers for I-1077

A proposed initiative would create an income tax in Washington state on people making $200,000 per year and on couples making twice that. It would also cut the state's portion of the property tax by 20%, and end the business and occupation tax for small businesses. Do you support or do you oppose this proposed initiative?

66% Support
27% Oppose

Question wording is bit too favorable for the "Support" side IMO; it frames the initiative pretty much exactly how they want it to be looked at.

While I would very much like for this initiative to pass, what chance would it have of being upheld in court if it did?

No one really knows. The precedent hasn't been tested by the State Supreme Court in decades.

Out of curiosity -assuming it does reach the state Supreme Court, on what basis would they overturn an income tax initiative once voters approve it?

I am pretty sure the state constitution does not allow for an income tax.

If it doesn't, it is veiled in ambiguity, as I see nothing in Article VII that explicitly forbids the taxation of income (itself a form of property, as I understand it).

[bgwah]

The state constitution says something about how tax rates have to be equal.

From what I understand, a flat income tax would be legal. A progressive income tax would not.

[Meeker]

The reasoning lies in the second sentence of Article VII, Section 1:

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The bolded part is the key. The Washington State Supreme Court has ruled that income counts as a "class of property" and as such any taxation on it must be uniform, which an income tax is not because it creates two classes of real estate - "income-producing land" and "unproductive land". If you're thinking to yourself "WTF that's the dumbest ruling ever", you're not alone.

For those curious, Article VII, Section 1 was never actually intended to forbid an income tax. The problem lies in the writers being a bit sloppy when drafting the section and copying some language from another state constitution (don't recall which one) that when coupled with the language in the next sentence of the section (which defines what "property" is) caused the Court to interpret the section in this manner.

After the initial Court ruling (which overturned a graduated income tax initiative that, funnily enough, was overwhelmingly endorsed by voters in the 1932 election due to a revenue shortfall), the Legislature passed numerous amendments attempting to rectify the problem, including one which simply read "The constitution does not prohibit the levy of a graduated income tax." All attempts were rejected by voters.

The Legislature implemented a sales tax and a B&O tax as "emergency measures" to tide the state over until an income tax could be sorted out. Eventually, however, it became clear that an income tax wasn't going to happen and the emergency tax laws gradually became permanent and accepted. There was sufficient revenue from these taxes to run the state and the income tax fell off the radar screen and became the third rail of Washington politics that it's been for the past few decades.

EDIT: The reasoning bgwah mentioned above is also frequently cited (a progressive income tax isn't uniform because it has different rates). I read an article several years ago that gave the reason I mentioned as the primary factor though; I'm trying to find it again and read it over.

EDIT AGAIN: I read through the significant parts of the ruling... essentially what I was saying was the specific section of the law the Court cited or something. I don't really understand the details; I'm not a lawyer.

The short and skinny is that a Court ruled a long time ago that income is property and you have to tax all property at the same rate. That ruling today could be considered BS and overturned for various reasons. We just don't know.

[bgwah]

^ I eagerly await cries of JUDICIAL ACTIVISM!

[Meeker]

Sen. Darlene Fairley (D-32nd District) is retiring, citing that she no longer enjoys being in the Legislature. District is Safe Democrat.

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[Meeker]

Gregoire says she'll sign the petition for I-1077

[bgwah]

Does anyone else think Democrats (or anyone) voluntarily putting "Independent" in their name is an immensely dumb decision?

Yes, and I would fully expect my idiot representative (Tim Sheldon) to pull a trick like this. I almost want to just elect a republican to get rid of him.
Speaking of which is there any chance that the district will change enough after 2010 to make it more difficult for Sheldon (either a major shift to the left by incorporating more of Olympia or a major shift to the right by moving to become a more rural district)?

So, I take it Sheldon is running for re-election? Does he have any Democratic or Green challengers?

[Meeker]

Does anyone else think Democrats (or anyone) voluntarily putting "Independent" in their name is an immensely dumb decision?

Yes, and I would fully expect my idiot representative (Tim Sheldon) to pull a trick like this. I almost want to just elect a republican to get rid of him.
Speaking of which is there any chance that the district will change enough after 2010 to make it more difficult for Sheldon (either a major shift to the left by incorporating more of Olympia or a major shift to the right by moving to become a more rural district)?

So, I take it Sheldon is running for re-election? Does he have any Democratic or Green challengers?

None have filed with the PDC.

[Meeker]

Republican Senate candidate Chris Widener, who lives next door to Dino Rossi, mysteriously dropped out of the race today only two days after attending a primary debate.

[RI]

Republican Senate candidate Chris Widener, who lives next door to Dino Rossi, mysteriously dropped out of the race today only two days after attending a primary debate.

I heard Widener in an interview say that Rossi was still undecided about the race, and that he was looking to get out whether or not Rossi ran, but I have a feeling that Rossi is leaning towards running right now.

[CultureKing]

Republican Senate candidate Chris Widener, who lives next door to Dino Rossi, mysteriously dropped out of the race today only two days after attending a primary debate.

I heard Widener in an interview say that Rossi was still undecided about the race, and that he was looking to get out whether or not Rossi ran, but I have a feeling that Rossi is leaning towards running right now.

Really? I feel like Rossi would be better off trying to get into some other office, Murray sort of has a huge war chest to take him down with, or does he just like getting rejected over and over?

[Meeker]

Republican Senate candidate Chris Widener, who lives next door to Dino Rossi, mysteriously dropped out of the race today only two days after attending a primary debate.

I heard Widener in an interview say that Rossi was still undecided about the race, and that he was looking to get out whether or not Rossi ran, but I have a feeling that Rossi is leaning towards running right now.

Really? I feel like Rossi would be better off trying to get into some other office, Murray sort of has a huge war chest to take him down with, or does he just like getting rejected over and over?

I agree it doesn't really make any sense for Rossi to do this, but Widener dropping out is the clearest sign to me that Rossi may be about to make the plunge (still don't think he will though).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/smartpolitics/2010/04/still_thinking_about_running_f.php

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The exception, of course, is the last-minute Frank Lautenberg switch.

[Meeker]

Rep. Skip Priest (R-31st District) will be running for the newly created office of Mayor of Federal Way. The State Senator and other Representative from the district are Democrats so normally I'd say we'd have a shot but in this climate perhaps not.

Priest was also one of maybe two "moderates" in the House GOP caucus (although he really isn't that moderate IMO).

[Meeker]

Another retirement, and it's a big one: Sen. Rosa Franklin (D-29th District) will be stepping down. Franklin is the current President Pro Tem of the Senate and has served in the body since the early 1990's.

The 29th is Safe Democrat. All eyes are now on Rep. Steve Kirby and Rep. Steve Conway to see what they do.

[Alcon]

My intuition is that the drop in Dem popularity in the Federal Way district would probably be among the biggest in the state, but what's the field looking like?

[Meeker]

My intuition is that the drop in Dem popularity in the Federal Way district would probably be among the biggest in the state, but what's the field looking like?

No candidates have filed with the PDC nor have any announced as far as I've heard.

His 2008 opponent didn't do too bad and might want another go at it, but that's just speculation on my part.