GOP's path for Electoral College victory in 2024 (user search)

Philadelphia isn't "becoming redder"

It is, though. At the very least, it isn't going to get *bluer* anytime soon ...

No, Philadelphia is quite literally becoming redder as African-American turnout drops relative to white turnout. Democrats got a smaller absolute vote margin out of it in 2020 than 2016 in spite of a huge turnout surge. (It has also been losing population pretty fast post-2020). It's still going to absolutely be very blue for a long time, but a large part of why PA swung so tepidly in 2020 was that Philadelphia swung 3 points right.

I think it's kind of difficult to say which of the three of WI/MI/PA is going to be the most favorable for Trump. Assuming a decent Sunbelt performance, he needs at least one of them to win. PA has the best Democratic state party, while WI has historically had the best Republican one; WI probably has the best long-term demographic changes for Democrats, while it's MI for Repubicans. PA has a really consistent tiny Republican trend; it hasn't trended left at any election since 2004.

There is absolutely no path to victory without at least one of those three states. (Two out of three is the GOP has won probably; one out of the three would've been enough in 2016/2020, but Sunbelt trends aren't great and might not be enough for 2016).

My pretty strong guess is that AZ should be an easier lift than GA, particularly for Trump. AZ's demographic changes don't really seem to be all that bad for Republicans anymore, and the state's conservatives are pretty culturally in tune with where Trump is. GA is still getting blacker, still has an unusually educated Republican base with more room to fall in principle, and also is a place where Trump has an unusually bad reputation. Quite plausibly AZ/PA/WI is easier than GA.

(That said even a tiny relative decline in AA turnout could absolutely be lethal for GA Democrats.)

White females in PA H race and WI and FL voted 52/42 that's the difference African American along with white females make up D vote Latinos and blkss are only 30 percentage pts of population

Once again Vosem is wrong In Tammy Duckworth white women voted 60/40 for Duckworth

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