TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not gonna quote 2016’s long post, but I think it’s funny to think that Ted Cruz is somehow more popular than he was in 2018. Did we just forget his Cancun vacation in the middle of the worst snowstorm in living memory all of a sudden?

That said, I don’t think a sitting House member would be the best D challenger to Cruz. I think it would be someone like McRaven or Kelly, but no idea if they are actually interested.

LoL John Love is gonna be the nominee if Colin ALRED doesnt 2016 doesn't realize blk people vote too and he said Cameron was gonna defeat Beshear and Matt Boswell is gonna be the nominee against Scott

Yeah Ryan lost because Vance ran under DeWine winning by 25 he didn't win Hamilton County like he should have the suburbs because DeWine made inroads there

All these races are gonna be within 5 pts and Blks are 5/6 percent of the vote so with white females it can change a race that's why we won AZ, NV, GA and PA and WI Gov

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If the PVI is 51/47 to 52/46 we have a shot at TX just like Obama won FL with 51/47

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't even have a nominee yet so and all the blks are unknown we don't know how these Bank failures are gonna effect the races at the end

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Oh god, oh f**k... https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1640237678447796225

What?

It means Allred isn't running for Senate. Quite frankly, though, I don't think any Democrat can beat Cruz, so I'm not too saddened by this. It could be an indicator, however, that the Democrats expect 2024 to go poorly.

LoL do you know why Allred isn't running Tim Ryan lost his seat in the H and ran for S and got no office to Hold that's why Allred isn't running

Safe R as always

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No it's not

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McConaughey for Senate 2024🔥🔥🔥

LoL he isn't running , Allred could of lost anyways didn't we learn what happened to Tim Ryan

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX is Safe R ANYWAYS

It's a 303 map with wave insurance but there can be split voting in OH and MT S, it's very hard to break the 304 map especially in TX

I am hoping we can make up some ground in MO to get to 51 especially since Manchin is losing , Kander almost won in 2016

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't even know whom the nominees are in FL or TX there are several blks running so when there is a clear front runner and it's not Allred we will see whom is gonna win right now it appears to be John Love but Zachary Manning is yet to officially announced there is gonna be a blk nominee because of DALLAS

Just like in FL and Emerson has Biden 3 pts down Boswell appears to be nominee Bernie has endorsed Boswell he hasn't endorsed anyone in TX and he is close to Kunce and Brown , Bernie

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's have targets in MO, FL and TX just like RS have targets in OH, MT and WV this is the same R party that didn't beat a single D inc S in 20/22 they failed in NV, GA and AZ and users still think they are gonna win all these seats

Users keep going by the same Approvals that were wrong last time we still have to VOTE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bye Cruz

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm not too beat up about Allred being out either. I never thought Democrats had much of a chance here yet barring a Cruz-O'Rourke rematch if Beto hadn't run for President and Governor.

I still think Democrats' best strategy is to go all-in on defense and pray that they somehow don't lose more than one seat, especially among the Trump state Senators.

Well I have to remind you that this is the only realistic opportunity for a pickup for the Democrats, so giving up on this race would be a bad idea and there are plenty of other reasons why it'd be bad to pass this up.

The main reason it’s dumb is that there’s a solid case to be made that TX-Sen is more likely to go Democrat than either MT-Sen or OH-Sen, and like you said, it’s the only real pickup opportunity for the DSCC.

Plus a Democrat win in the Senate race, even if Trump narrowly took the state at the presidential level, squarely puts the state on the board for 2028 and going forward.

Ted Cruz is not that unpopular like these Democrats here on Atlas are claiming.

You said DESANTIS and Cameron we're going to win it's called the blk vote Oz, Laxalt, Masters, Walker lost their 5 pt lead

Beshear is up 9% on Cameron and Biden is leading Trump and DeSantis by 5


Biden is at 50% in Rassy polls it's over when inc is at 50 just like Beshear has a 62% Approvals,it's wave insurance and Reeves isn't at 50% he is at 46 like Kotek and Cruz

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ted Cruz is not that unpopular like these Democrats here on Atlas are claiming.

This person will look you dead in the eyes and unflinchingly tell you that liberals live in a bubble.

Waves happened in end of Eday cycle not beginning that's why Presley has a chance Reeves is under 50 like Cruz is and Hawley can lose too because Kunce is a Kander candidate


How did Johnson and Vance overcome I deficits in 22 Ryan and Barnes were lead pre IAN it was tye October surprise IAN that boosted RS narrow lead in H all of a sudden they won NY seats please they are going to lose in 24

Obama was polling like Biden in 2012 and Sandy bump,  I am expecting one for Ds since DeSantis is losing without Tsunami IAN


Red states like MO and OH and TX have Blks and brown skinned people too that's why Obama, Carter, Clinton won TX, MO, OH, there is a NAACP boycott and no Barber in IA and FL but he goes to SC and NC and GA that's why in a 53/47 SC can flip like IN did in 2008 we aren't living in a bubble , you predicted NV wrong I predicted wrong too but I over predicted not under

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users keep forgetting we are running against Trump not DeSantis and we have to run against someone DeSantis has a 45 unfav Trump has a 63 Biden will scrutinize both next yr Biden isn't I'm scrutinize campaign mode he is in fundraiser campaign mode there is no real D primary so olse stop saying a wave isn't inevitable

It's a 303 5o)47 Eday , Romney and McCain got 47 percent but if it's a 53/47 like Obama and Biden gotten 2008/12  OH, NC and TX flips for 52)48 S or 53/47 with WV the PVI will reflect the S number and H will go D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said WV is gone that gives Ds 50 seats and the PVI in 2008/12/2o RS got 47 to Ds 50 if it's 52)48 S which will mimic the PVI we net TX and MO but 2016 like a lot of Conserv don't understand the blk vote we aren't thed majority but liberal white men, white women and Latinos can make up 5 percent and KY and MS Govs are so close, Reeves only won by 5 last time too, Blks can make up 5 percent that's why Cameron, is losing to Beshear he is losing the blk vote like Oz, Laxalt, Masters and Walker did

Vance and Johnson got lucky like NY RS and NJ R Kean when they won barely on DeSantis IAN BUMP, ESPECIALLYJohnson whom won by 1 is Doomed in 2028

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm not too beat up about Allred being out either. I never thought Democrats had much of a chance here yet barring a Cruz-O'Rourke rematch if Beto hadn't run for President and Governor.

I still think Democrats' best strategy is to go all-in on defense and pray that they somehow don't lose more than one seat, especially among the Trump state Senators.

Well I have to remind you that this is the only realistic opportunity for a pickup for the Democrats, so giving up on this race would be a bad idea and there are plenty of other reasons why it'd be bad to pass this up.

The main reason it’s dumb is that there’s a solid case to be made that TX-Sen is more likely to go Democrat than either MT-Sen or OH-Sen, and like you said, it’s the only real pickup opportunity for the DSCC.

Plus a Democrat win in the Senate race, even if Trump narrowly took the state at the presidential level, squarely puts the state on the board for 2028 and going forward.

Ted Cruz is not that unpopular like these Democrats here on Atlas are claiming.

So with 16 months left until the election; Dems should not bother trying to flip a seat in a southern state that's trending their way, where they badly need to lay down some party infrastructure and which represents its only reasonable Senate pickup because the Senator doesn't seem all that unpopular?

Where have I heard that before in the last few years?

They aren't laying out the money in wave insurance it's called online donations from Center Street Pac and Poor people campaign and Union dues and Act blue like Brown get plenty of auto Union dues he is chair of the auto S committee, I am donating to Kunce so they get million from online donations like Ryan did in 22 but DeWine pulled Vance out of the fire

We already have 50/50 S Brown and Tester @50 TX, FL and MO are wave insurance it's Act blue that gets wave insurance map


We have a better shot in TX than FL because there is no Demings and we have plenty of Ds in Dallas TX and we only had Demings in FLORIDA

Union dues come out of workers paycheck and donate to all Ds that's why it's no shortage of money that's why I am not R whenever I work they take Union dues for Ds anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Does Ronald Gutierrez support gun control? That could be his Achilles heel in a state like Texas.

No it's not we are in a Great Recession 2.0 in 2006/08/12 the Ds in Southern states like Brown, Tester, Nelson and McCaskill won despite being pro gun control

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Does Ronald Gutierrez support gun control? That could be his Achilles heel in a state like Texas.

He is from Uvalde.

Not sure if that neccesarily helps him, remember Beto was from El Paso but his gun control stances still hurt him. It is very likely this is the issue Cruz will focus on against him assuming he becomes the nominee.

You also said Biden Approvals are low and we won WI +11 when Obama was at 40 percent in 2010/14 Walker won WI, Biden is tracking like Obama in Rassy 48 percentage pts Approval

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Does Ronald Gutierrez support gun control? That could be his Achilles heel in a state like Texas.

He is from Uvalde.

Brown, Tester, McCaskill won in red states and they were pro gun control,and so did Kay Hagen, win too Dole hammered her on gun rights why because Pandemic was Great Recession 2.0 and Mark Begich 2008 and Mary Peltola won in red states AK on being pro gun control

AZ Iced tea said GALLEGO would lose and he is ahead in every poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean D Great news

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/DaniellaMicaela/status/1653106941705502722

Lean R. Allred is a generic party-line Democrat, there is nothing particularly appealing about him to swing voters.

It's wave insurance and Biden is leading by 5/10 pts over DeSantis and TRUMP do you know what wave insurance is, 2008 we were only supposed to win CO, OH we won VA, NC, IN, and FL. By the way Liddy Dole and Gordon Smith and Coleman were safe too in 2008

The Pandemic was Great Recession 2 and 2008 it was the first Great Recession and the last poll had Trump +3 in TX and Emerson had Trump tied in FL

Just like MS and LA Gov are t over it's still 6 months to go

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

One could only pray to God or Vishnu or The Flying Spaghetti Monster that this seat flips. Allred is the Democrats best possible nominee, but this is still a "Lean R" at best for them

Do you know whom Biden is he was on the ballot in 2008/12 that got us 59 seats the reason why we failed to get a landslide was in 20 Trump gave out stimulus checks and no Rs want to get rid of all entitlement

FL isn't safe either for Rs them Emerson has Biden tied in FL a month ago 44

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course it's Kean R it's wave insurance but Rs are losing by 2008 because the Pandemic was another Great Recession like 2008

But just because a user says it's Lean R doesn't make it so

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

One could only pray to God or Vishnu or The Flying Spaghetti Monster that this seat flips. Allred is the Democrats best possible nominee, but this is still a "Lean R" at best for them

Do you know whom Biden is he was on the ballot in 2008/12 that got us 59 seats the reason why we failed to get a landslide was in 20 Trump gave out stimulus checks and no Rs want to get rid of all entitlement

FL isn't safe either for Rs them Emerson has Biden tied in FL a month ago 44

FL is a likely R state, and will probably vote to the right of TX.

There hasn't been any polls except for Emerson we'rent you guys saying that DeSantis can beat Biden you Conserv have no standing with DeSantis losing by 10

But you guys would post a NV poll in a heartbeat showing Biden loosing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I take it this is gonna be one of those threads where every other post has to include something to the effect of "This seat won't flip, but..."?

Waves don't happen 19nths out but Bush W was blowing out Gore around this time in 1999 it got close at the end due to Drunk Driving charge

At any rate we still have to vote as always MS and LA G aren't over are ALLRED and Presley and Wilson Dogs they sure are but so are the Dubs or Golden States and they are defying conventional wisdom again, Celts were supposed to win last time, but Curry and blk women like Obama and ALLRED have strong blk women wives

That's what poor people campaign and Cebter Street Pac is about donate for non inc D Senators, you can donate to either one for wave insurance candidates

FL isn't a done deal Biden was tied in FL at 44 with Trump a month ago in March

We aren't gonna sweep the S Govs but Rs may only win 1, that is bad news these are R 22 states heading into 24 red states are turning purple

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I take it this is gonna be one of those threads where every other post has to include something to the effect of "This seat won't flip, but..."?

Sounds more Tennessee or Missouri to me

Those two were moving rightward.  Texas isn't.
[/quote
The Rs are having trouble in KY G and the IAN BUMP HELPED THE RS FROM LOSING IN WI ESPECIALLY THERE WOULD OF BEEN A 52)48 SEN HAD IT NOT BEEN FOR IAN BUMP BUT EVERY  SWING STATE Including MO MOVED LEFTWARD AND FL MOVED RIGHTWARD

IF IT WAS A 303 MAP THEN Laura Kelly, Mary Peltola shouldn't have win and Beshesr is leading for reelection

MO is winnable Kander came within 3 of Blunt in 2016

Split vote Ashcroft, Caputo and Gianforte will win Easily and Braun