Marquette: Johnson +6

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not to toot my own horn, but there were people who saw this coming.

52.7% Johnson (R, inc.)
47.3% Barnes (D)

(no third-party candidates on the ballot)

Feel free to mock this if I’m wrong, but assuming there’s a turnout surge in November which wasn’t captured by those special elections, this race probably won’t be particularly close. Barnes would an unusual (for a midterm under a Democratic trifecta) turnout gap to win, and I don’t think he’ll get it.

Lol you do realize we already have the majority without WI if we flip PA because CCM and Warnock and Kelly are leading right

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There's definitely a difference in social skills between the candidates. That's for sure!

You really take Pre Election polls not Exit polls seriously

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Between this, seats like OR-5, OR-6, you gotta give a lot of blame to Warren's network of sh**tty candidates she endorses early.

Lol this is a Pre Election polls not an Exit poll Rs are the ones underpoll with Biden Approvals in 2010 they would have 54 R Sen and 245 RH we are the underdogs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democrats aren’t winning an open seat in NC with two generic candidates on a night when they’re losing WI by 6, please get out of your bubble.

Lol this is not an exit poll this is a Pre Election polls , Molinaro was Plus 8 in a Pre Election polls and Ryan won by 3 that was an Exit poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

One hell of a likely voter screen, race is tied among RV's.

I have said it before so this is not just unskewing a poll to fit my liking but I think RV polls give a better view of the state of the race. A bad LV screen makes for a bad poll.

MT Treasurer is making it seem that Ds can't win a race in WI because he along with Old School are Paul Ryan fans and Rs owned Ds in the Walker, Johnson and Paul Ryan but guess what Walker and Paul Ryan and Kleefisch isn't on the ballot Michels is

Again, these aren't exit polls these are pre Election polls, that's why it's called 303 map with wave insurance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

One hell of a likely voter screen, race is tied among RV's.

I have said it before so this is not just unskewing a poll to fit my liking but I think RV polls give a better view of the state of the race. A bad LV screen makes for a bad poll.

RV polls give a better view on the race on the basis of what..

Wishcasting ?

Wasn't LAXALT up by 3 on 5/6 polls and he is losing because he was losing the RV model not the LV model the same thing is gonna happen to Johnson it's in the Database how many leads Laxalt had and he is losing by 2 now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm not surprised; this seat was always a reach in this environment.

Lol it's not out of reach it's called voting not POLL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of Course our little liberal friends here on Talk Elections would never admit that BUT the Bottom Line is this: Mandela Barnes is too PROGRESSIVE for Wisconsin. Barnes did say some massive outlandish things during the BLM Protests in 2020.

Let's me clear here: 90 % of Barnes Positions are even to the left of Senator Tammy Baldwin.

We still wi have the majority 50/50 Senate because LAXALT is losing even if Warnock is forced into runoff because of PA and we still have NC and OH Beasley and Ryan are overperforning Barnes, Beasley is down by 1 pt, I wouldnt be surprised if Ryan and Beasley and Lee win and we lose WI Evers is still winning and this is a Pre Election polls wasn't Molinaro plus 8 you posted, in a Pre Election polls you posted and Ryan won by 3 it's called Exit polls top

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm going to be so very disappointed if/when Johnson is reelected. I thought Wisconsin voters had finally soured on this clown's utter nonsense and trumpism.

Have they really soured on Trumpism? After all, he just came ~20k votes short of winning the state in 2020, which was arguably a better year for national Dems than 2022 will be even with fairly optimistic outlook. Johnson is yet lucky again to run against a B-tier candidate and in a favorable national environment.

The RV/LV split is indeed staggering here and even I don't think a 6 pt. margin will happen. That said, Barnes' momentum from the summer has clearly faded.

Tossup

Didn't Molinaro lead by 8 and Pat Ryan won by 3 MOE  is 5/6 pts, Rs don't come back from huge deficits but Ds can because Ds have black and Latino votes, Rs like Bailey is down 7 he doesn't have black or brown support to make up that deficit, what gave Pat Ryan the victory in MOE females vote, the Gender gap in GA is 51/42 with Females in that QU poll it's not an all male Eday