GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All the Approvals are showing the same numbers as before but Ds are still doing well in NC, FL and GA so much for Approval ratings, I expect Warnock to win

That's why I say it's too early to call KY and Sen for 24 I know Rs are so anxious to get rid of Brown, Manchin and Tester and takeover the Sen since Ryan and Beasley failed they have to wait just like Ds have to wait to take over the H and we are favs in the H based on NY alone

It's nice to have 2 yrs of non obstruction from McConnells on judges since we already have 50

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why WARNOCK is gonna win by 2 pts 51/49 not by a landslide it's gonna be close but there are no more Trafalgar polls that show 49/45 Walker it's tied and when a race is tied it's close enough to go to Ds due to Provisions ballots we saw that in all the close races again except for WI and Barnes had that Kenosha thing and BLM, but WI is heavily R gerrymandering the Crts ensured that

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's difficult for Walker to get his base out because the Ds already have the majority he won't be the 51 st vote having Ds breaking the tie

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a status quo Eday and so will the Senate and Prez no Incumbent Senator lost and NC and KY have Incumbency advantage as well as Sen and clearly Ds are Favs in the H due to NY and CA in 24 due to 4.2% unemployment

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why should we not be surprised by WARNOCK winning as I have said every incumbent Senator and only 1 Incumbent Gov lost and we won AZ, MA, MD blue wall Give seats but failed at OH, NC, UT and FL because even in red states 4% unemployment matters if Eday was held today we would get a 51/47 PVI like 2012 but in that yr Brown, Manchin and Tester won because Fetterman won by the same margins as Obama but we don't know what type of wave insurance in the H or Senate with a 4/6 PVI because different yrs it meant different

That's why we can lose LA GOV but keep KY and NC because Incumbents matter

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I said this before and I say it again Biden polls are going upwards not downward towards 24 as we look to try again for a Filibuster proof Trifecta if Eday was held today with the Fuentes and YE flap Ds would of won the H and Beasley and Ryan and Barnes would of been elected

You haven't heard much from Trump since the YE and Fuentes flop

We are looking at a 51/49 S as we head towards 24 Eliminate Sinema hold Brown and Tester and elect Matthew Sancrainte in FL, Biden is already leading Trump in FL and Stein is leading in NC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said before Biden isn't at 37/57 IPSOS POLL, he is 46% in Rassy poll and is likely to win the PVI in 24 every Prez except Bush W and Obama have increased their EC margin

It's likely a DeSantis v Biden race and tax cuts are not popular outside the South, because still pay Properties and Sales taxes double taxation anyways, tax cuts at the Federal Levels doesn't elevate you from Property taxes that the rich must pay

Rs keep saying keep taxes low but fail to tell you about eleviate Property tax and HI, FL, NY and CA have the highest property tax

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

To those in the know: are we likely to see any big discrepancies from the general to the special in terms of county margins? (As in counties shifting greatly from November 8th to this Toozdee?)

Use a no. 2 pencil, and show your work for partial credit

My general thinking is suburban Atlanta, where the GOP vote being Pro-Kemp compared to Pro-Walker was likely the greatest, Trump likely doesn't help there either   Only potential caveat to that is, those are likely higher propensity voters as opposed to a more rural part of the state.

I think that this is the place we see a lot of Walker first round voters stay home or outright switch to Warnock.

Still underestimate Biden voters lol Rs are voting for WARNOCK that voted for Kemp just like Rs voted for Kelly and Fetterman

Do you know why Ds are overperforning because Gas prices are 3.75, Biden is likely to do better than he did than 2020 because Indies that voted Trump in 20 will switch over to Biden power of Incumbent, just like Brown, Tester and Manchin have a better chance than Ryan, DEMINGS and Beasley power of Incumbent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said before Ds always appeal to women Rs don't always they appeal to white women but not minority women that's been their problem since the Clarence Thomas era, because Vance, Johnson, Budd, DeSantis gotten white women but Walker, Masters, LAXALT, Hobbs failed to get blk or Latino women

Just like Phil Scott without White females can't win in D states but they are compassionate Conservative not Tories that associates with Proud Boys and Southern Strategy

Part of it is Obamacare and SSA and Medicare more females under 65 are on entitlements than men due to single parent household

Look at Harris and KBJ and even Bush W had Condi Rice whom have Rs appointed as a blk female head of state no one and that's why Walker is losing due to blk females on account of Abortion he is pro life

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Equality Marriage passed after Eday it's important in blue states that's why Biden is leading in AZ and WARNOCK winning no questions asked SSM hurt Sean Patrick Murphy.or passing and it would of helped Barnes Johnson voted against it, but that's why WARNOCK has gotten a bump

It not that important in terms of men but with Females equality marriage matters , white females were key in red states Rs like DeSantis, Vance getting reelected, if Ryan and Beasley had Equality marriage they would of won more White females enough to win and some white men

But no questions Brown whom is an incumbent will be helped by it

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not Rs staying home it's white and blk females that voted R in red states including for Kemp that's voting for WARNOCK, the same moderate Rep females that put Katie Hobbs and Laura Kelly back into office

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Can't wait til that 51(49 results are called GA is a D state now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You know Congress wait til after Eday to pass bills that should of been passed on Sept 30th the Ds stalled a WVA pipeline and Rs retaliation stalled the SSM and then after Eday which is helped WARNOCK with female they pass it and in the Summer the Debt Ceiling will be up and likely to include extended tax cuts 20% Corporate taxes and a Border Wall Obama and Biden built 128 m and Trump built 400 m, if SSM would of passed Sean Patrick Murphy would of won and
D of WV pipeline passed it would of helped Ryan because Vance and Don Jr campaign against Biden coal comment

Likely Sinema goes down in a primary and Justice defeats Manchin and leaving Brown, Tester and upset in TX and FL
 as possible outcomes for a Filibuster proof Trifecta , with Feinstein and Gillibrand along with Biden on the ballot max D vote out of CA and NY we only need 5 seats

They did the same thing in 2020 passed a smaller stimulus after Eday and Ds lost 13 H seats, it's called compromising

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race isn't gonna tell us anything about red states in KY Gov or NC Gov but we did win KS GOV, GA is a blue state and so is VA despite it electing an R Gov Tim Kaine is gonna easily win

If Beshear wins Brown stands a chance again Brown and Beshear are Incumbents not like Ryan whom was a challengier and he didn't take on any leadership role they didn't offer it to him in the H where now after Pelosi they Ds are creating more, if Ryan had a Leader role he would of been best off Brown got out of H that's why he won three Times not because he is invincible

They should of created a chair of blue dog coalition for Ryan but Greg Landsman is heir Apparent now to challenge Vance in 28

I get tired of the fact Ds think that Brown is so invincible he wasn't supposed to be at DeWine it came due to Katrina aftermath

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Definitely Biden polls are rising for 2024 he can win by a landslide in 2024, if Biden was on the downtrend Walker would be  winning

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Goodbye Walker

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Douglas County has the most votes in of any of the Atlanta metro counties (over 80%) and Warnock is leading there 69-31 (was 65-33 in November).

Crazy to think Obama barely won it in both 2008 and 2012. The black spillover into the County is literally insane. Same with Henry, Forsyth, and Rockdale; they're all just fundamentally different counties than they were a decade ago with a much more African-American electorate.

Obamacare was unpopular in 2010 due to penalty tax it's popular now even in red states die to Pandemic that's why's

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WARNOCK just took back the lead

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They nailed it 51/49 WARNOCK, blue GA, AZ, VA, CO, NV, MI,WI and PA

NO PATH FOR RS ON 24

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No word from 2016, or Hollywood Rs just keep underestimate BIDEN

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA is a blue state Rs overperform I'm Nov if Eday was held today after SSM we would of kept both chambers and netted OH, NC and UT obviously

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kemp would of clearly lost the runoff, but WARNOCK was definitely helped by Abrams anyways fair tradeoff

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course Biden Approvals are on the upswing not Downswing he is leading Trump 53/47

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gas prices are 40.00 a barrel it's nothing the Rs can do about it beating Biden isn't happening

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pathetic it was even this close considering the gulf in candidate quality, it shows the partisan and nonsensical reality of our elections. At the very least Warnock gets 6 years to let the burgeoning Democratic state of Georgia develop.

It's great Georgia will have 2 Democratic Senators for at least the next 4 years, barring an unexpected vacancy, but beating one of the worst candidates of my lifetime by only 3 points is not a good short term sign for Democrats. Georgia remains the reddest purple state IMO.

Hershel Walker was a Football player it was poor blk men and  blk females that voted against Walker the Rs never elevate blk females except Condo Rice, that's been their problem in 303 states Elder samething, Walker elevate blk men and Tim Scott is retiring in 2026