Texas 2022 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why do users think McCounghey is gonna run Abbott is the clear Fav since Biden border policy has made this a 304 EC map, you see how Demings is doing in a border crisis and she reminds voters of Harris she is 12 pts down

We have a pro immigrant Gov I'm Newsom and he is poor

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well that's pretty much the race. With Beto now in, he's a shoe-in to the democratic nomination. I expect just about every high profile Texas democrat to endorse him for governor.

Abbott will most likely win his primary, but it will definitely be more competitive than the democratic primary (even if neither are really all that competitive in the first place). While Beto will likely win every county in his primary except for a few rural ones where no one votes in the dem primary, there's a chance that one of Abbott's challengers (likely Huffines and/or West) may win a few rural counties in the republican primary, though this won't change the fact that Abbott is most likely to win the primary.

As of right now, my prediction for the race is R+9-10. If this were a Trump midterm, Abbott would likely only hold on by around 5-6. Beto, due to his higher profile status, will almost certainly do a much better job at energizing voters than Lupe Valdez in 2018, not to mention this will highly likely become a nationalized race. It also helps Beto and the dems that there are multiple big issues to run on against Abbott and the republicans, most notably the power grid failure, abortion, guns, and voting rights. On the other hand, Abbott and the GOP have their own issues to energize their base on, most notably the economy, border crisis, medical freedom, oil and gas, and education/CRT. If we start seeing multiple scandals arise from schools in Texas, the latter issue will certainly help Abbott just like it did with Youngkin in Virginia this year.

Those are just my 2 cents for right now. Let me know what y'all think!

Your flawed data is only correct if Biden Approvals stay exactly where they're at now, 41%, Beto is young he is a fresh face and Biden won't be at 41% on Nov 22 more like 50



If we go by Approvals a yr before Election Ted Strickland would have been reelected, he was leading Kaich in R2K polls in 2009

We won't know until Aug 22 what Biden Approvals are, users need to be patient and wait until campaign begins

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto can win this race, we also have very competitive H be seats in TX, we can't go without a Gubernatorial election without having a nominee anyways or else Rs are gonna sweep the competetive H races

We also need VR to pass, we don't know what Manchin will do once all the Spending bills and Debt Ceiling is passed, that is the time to reform the Filibuster

We won't know if we won't try but  Conservatives thinking that Biden will be at 41% Approvals are fooling themselves

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am guessing Beto is jumping into this race to push DC D's Sinema and Manchin on VR this race and FL will get more competitive if VR passes, Rs are benefiting from the blockade on VR and it's all Simema and Manchin fault, we could have been passed VR over the Summer with a Filibuster carve out, the two wasted so much time

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto can win an upset this is more flippable than FL, when Biden recovers from his 41)38 percent Approvals we don't know after 2 Spending bills are passed and Debt Ceiling what Manchin abd Sinema are gonna do on Debt Ceiling and we have dozen of H Seats that we need to win to hold the H anyways

Biden wont be at 41or 38% Approvals in ABC OR USA TODAY SECULAR POLLS A YR FROM NOW

R2K polls had Ted Strickland and Lee Fisher beating Portman and Kasich a yr before an election we all know how that turned out trusting polls a yr out

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R -> Safe R.

This would even be an uphill battle in an R-midterms, but with these partisan winds we're likely going to see in 2022, Beto isn't standing a chance. Yup, state level races are less nationalized, though TX hasn't really departed from its partisan lean in such elections. This is different in red states like MT or KY (or MA, VT vise versa).

It's wave insurence you don't make bold predictions, Cook has NC even with Biden at 41 a Tossup Senate RACES

Biden wont be 41 percent a yr from now as I have repeadily said Abbott is likely leading by 10 that will disappear in a yr where DeSantis is up by 12 and he has Rubio a Cuban and He had Surfside, Biden commended DeSajtis for bravery in Surfside

It's still a VBM not same-day voting despite what happened in VA T Mac was a retread anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well it seems Democrats have learned from the Virginia disaster:

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1461137623221735433

So much for them having "bad political instincts," don't get me wrong I expect him to lose, but definitely a sign that Democrats have learned the right lessons from Virginia and not the wrong ones.

CRIST and Val are done by double digits too, CRIST down by 12 and Val is DOWN BY A WHOPPING 19 PTS 😲😲😲😲

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

After the Rittenhouse verdict and stand your ground laws it's Safe R, Beto is too left wing on Guns to be Gov


If Beto was really competetive, a poll would be showing him ahead, but last poll had him down by nine ots

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think that Beto will perform much more strongly than most of you think. He's a uniquely talented retail politician who is being underestimated because posters are wrongly conflating his bad instincts in interacting with national media with being a "bad politician". Even if he is treated as a kind of joke, Abbott is governing in a very polarizing way that guarantees that Beto will receive ~45% of the vote or something like that.

I would probably predict a stronger performance than most posters, who are overreacting to his fairly close loss in 2018 and Texas' results in general in 2020, but there's a big coalition Texas Democrats need to pull together and it's fair to doubt his ability to do that. Of course lots of people are horrified with the way Texas Republicans handled the freeze and all this craziness Abbott is doing to sate the grassroots conservatives, but can O'Rourke really play the reformist fighter while also pulling over some small business conservatives? How will he walk the line on social issues? What will he do to address perceptions of inauthenticity? Most importantly, will he be able to harness the latino vote? Not to mention there's lots of gaffes that can drag down his campaign, like the gun comment.

I see Democrat victories in Texas in the 2020s, but I don't know if 2022 is it.

Biden Approvals near 50 percent is a 304 map not a 412 map, the Da tried hard last time to get TX/FL and failed

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX-GOV: Likely R
TX-LT GOV: Lean R
TX-AG: Lean R

Paxton and Patrick are likely to likely to lose than Abbott...

Nah, all of these races are Safe R.

TX isn't there yet for a flip, and 2022 isn't going to be a nice environment for Dems.

It's a Neutral Environment we only need 278 but last polls in PA and AZ show Fetterman up by nine and Kelly up by 4 over Brnovich ND Laura Kelly tied in KS


PBOWER2A say don't look at Approvals they will link up with Prez Approvals on Election night, Prez Approvaks matter in Prez races not so much Midterms

It was 50/45 NPVI on Election night 304 map and some not all polls show Biden level pegging at 50/45

Of course Traggy, Rassy and QU are purposely misleading us on 40 percent Approvals

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once Biden bills get fully enacted we can all Doom all we want but TX, OH and NC Senate can be winnable, we can predict the future but never know for certain

If I went to Vegas, I would not bet against Beto, Ryan, or Beasley

Ryan is running and is Bipartisan like Ruben Gallego

It's a Neutral cycle right now, but it can be different in August 22


Beto is a fresh and boyish face like DeSantis and don't forget we

Ds elected Beshear and his boyish looks and Ryan is a carbon copy of Beshear and his mentor is Ruben Gallego he tells it like it is like Ruben

We will make our Predictions, very soon and they won't look like a Neutral map, Rs are gonna make very R fav maps and D's very D friendly maps despite the rhetoric on the Forum

I know I will put Ryan, Beasley and Beto winning, I had McGrath winning and Harrison and they were underdogs

So19 if he wants can put Crist and Val winning it's called wave insurance for a reason, it's not must win states, since he feels strongly that Val and Crist both win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a wave TX Gov is winnable Beto is only down 9

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto down by six because of the Border Crisis, he's DONE, he isn't winning Abbott 55/45

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abbott isn't losing move on

Cornyn won by six pts over Hegar and Abbott is leading, in a Neutral Environment like 2020 Abbott's wins 55/45


Biden Approvals are near or below 50, it's a 303 map unless Biden gets above 50

Abbott won in a D wave over Valdez 55/45 in 18

Nate Silver 304 blue Wall

Polls want you to get excited it TX was winnable wouldn't they show us Da leading or tied in OH or NC Sen, they won't show us those poll numbers

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's Lean R you know the spill if Biden is less than 50 it's a 3o4 map if he is greater than 50 it's a 413 map his Approvals are 45/50 it's a Neutral Environment and FL would flip before TX anyways because Biden lost FL by 3 and TX by six

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto isn't down by 9 he is only down by six, 45/39 the same amount as CRIST is to DeSantis 51l45 it's not far fetched that CRIST or Beto win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's Lean R anyways due to Border issues

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously I expect Abbott to win, but I'm conflicted about the margin.

On one hand, the national environment is likely to be much better for the GOP compared to 2018 and O'Rourke, despite being well-known and well-funded compared to Valdez, has a lot of liabilities.

But at the same time, it seems like Abbott's popularity has really declined this year. So it's hard to say exactly what happens.

Biden broken borders is hurting D's in TX/FL Beto is losing by six pts the same as Crist and Demings, that's exactly how it's happening in TX, it's most likely a Neutral 304 Map yr not an R wave especially in the Senate and Gov races

Rs are the Favs in the H, but Cali Redistricting is gonna complicate their Majority status Rs are expected to lose Nunes, Issa, and Garcia and 1 more R and McCarthy lacks the votes in a divided H to become Speaker, Green and Cheney vows to block his Speakership

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's shouldn't put a nickel in this race it's GONE without McCounghey, Beto gun record is gonna be exposed by Rs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The political calculation changes, we have a border crisis where immigrants are coming in with the Delta Varient, mostly immigrants are getting it, I had my Covid shot but they are coming in unvaccinated..

Abbott and DeSajtis have done great jobs in containing the border despite their Right-wing record on everything else

McCounghey wasn't all that anyways you shouldn't look up to celebrities they're like politicians he paid 100K to give their advice on politics or acting or sports much more than even a middle class family member make in annual salary

Just like Act blue was a joke they had us donating to Kennedy millions of voters, but politicians except Pelosi we're donating to Market who is Lane he disappears when he isn't campaigning against Kennedy what has he done since he defeated Kennedy nothing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Watch the pollsters are gonna stop polling TX because McCounghey isn't running, it's only Beto the right wing is gonna tar

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto was feeding off the energy of McCounghey now that McCounghey is out he is the same Beto that failed as Prez and Senator

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wave insurance seats happens at the end of the campaign not the beginning we can get some SPL VOTING OUT OF THESE RED STATES WE'RE NOT GONNA WIN THEM ALL BUT Ryan, Demings abd Beto can all win and DeSantis and M DeWine can win too😊😊😊

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Anyone can say Beto can't win but what if our H candidates in TX overperform, TX or FL or OH SEN are within 4/6 pts of winning

Muhammad 6 pts ahead by Abbott or DeSantis isn't SAFE R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wish McConnaughey was running.  It would be more amusing and not change the final result.

McCounenhey is friends with Beto you don't think for second he wouldn't encourage Beto not to run, yes he did encourage Beto to run