Texas 2022 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah I mean Abbott is still clearly favored but I do think that his 'Titanium R' appeal is not true at all. I think he's definitely vulnerable.

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Lol you said HEGAR was gonna win you along with Landslide Lyndon

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we so Concerned about TX and DeSantis is only up 41/38 and so is Rubio only up 2

This is the same TX that Reelected Rick Perry time and time again, H races are in play in TX, Abbott easily won in 2018 and we netted H seats

Some polls have D's up 7 forget Biden Approvals on Generic ballot, and Biden will be at 52/54 Approvals come Nov 2022

Cook needs to change MA and FL Gov and Sen to Tossup

Downing isn't /20 pts behind and this isn't 2018 in MA

Sabato he still in  the Ice ages has WI Lean R for Sen, that's why Rs keep saying WI Means R but Cook changed it, Sabato believe not a Neutral Environment but an R Wave but Cook is Pragmatic

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto said no one is running since VR won't pass

As I said before D's need to spend their time defeating DeSantis not Abbott, as Fried is only 3 down

FL GOV AND SEN AND OH SEM even in this Environment with Josh Mandel or JD Vance can flip

TIM Ryan, Demings and Fried are all 2/3 pts behind

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R remains Safe R.

Completely premature judgment.

It doesn't s Safe R, Beto said he's not running or McCounghey since Sinema voted to keep Filibustered and let Voter Suppression past, they won't come within 10 pts of Greg Abbott

Nate Silver have Rs winning this

We had a massive wave In TX in 2018, Abbott still won

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto is loosing to Abbott by double digits

Beto isn't Nikki Fried whom is only 2 pts behind

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto is losing by 10 pts to Abbott

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto bungled anx chance to make this kind of competitive by running 4 prez as a very liberal candidate. Race is Likely R at best.

I don't think a lot of people remember that by now. Like they remember he did it, but not the substance. Plus, I can see him being a turnout machine again for liberals.

If he had gone away since then and done nothing, then he'd be remembered for that, but he's been very active in TX since early 2020 in voter registration efforts.

Are peoples memories that bad?

I just don't think it's relevant. It was nearly two years ago at this point. That's an eternity in politics.

Beto hasn't even officially announced and so many users think that he is definitely gonna be Gov of TX


News flash Abbott just made it tough to vote

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news, Abbott is vulnerable and so is DeSantis, we need a big name for our H seats

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto would make it closer than any other Democrat right now, but Abbott has a massive advantage and will easily win by 10 or more points, unless something changes drastically in the next year.

He is only up by 5 right now and DeSajtis is up 3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm not a huge O'Rourke fan, but I think he absolutely can win this thing.  It all depends on how the national environment looks a year from now.

D's have to lift the debt Ceiling, if there is a Govt shutdown over the Debt Ceiling, Pelosi will be blamed, Speakers always get blamed, not Senate leaders, she is gonna blame it all on Leader Mcconnell and he is in the Minority, it won't be pretty if the Debt Ceiling isn't raised by Oct 1st, but it's Sinema and Manchin fault they won't get rid of Filibuster

Then she has to convince Manchin and Sinema to agree to 2.5T up from 1=5T, if everything was fine and 4=7T package was passed already, Biden would be at 55% he's struggling at 50/48 the same Approvals as he has on Election night 50/45

Right now it's a 304 map, and GA Sen goes to Runoff

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto as UWS said has zero chance unless VR is passed, D's were dealt a blow when they couldn't put their immigration reform bill in Reconciliation same with FL, good night D's
.without VR and immigration reform they won't crack Gerrymandering in TX and FL

It's over, and Biden hasn't protected the Wall anyways in anticipation of immigration reform he thought he was gonna pass

The only person that can win is McCounghey but he isn't running

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto won't win, OH and Tim Ryan and he is leading in a poll would win before Beto and DeSantis and Rubio gotta bump from Surfside

It depends on whom is nominated in NC for wave insurance Jeff Jackson or Beasley, Beasley hurt herself endorsing Filibuster.

OH split it's votes before in 2018 between BROWN/DEWINE Mandel and Vance aren't Rob Portman Ryan/DeWine and Warnock/Kemp spl vote can happen

Ryan is just as strong as Kelly and Hickenlooper

Bullock ran into Daines, but no one other than Gianforte is left to take on Tester, good news for him, Zinke and Rosendale are Vance and Mandel types

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need McCounghey, he is the only one to win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto is down by 5 pts and Crist is down by 3, D's are gonna win FL before TX look at Biden Approvals they are mediocre Wbrooks you said HEGAR was gonna win and she Lost

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a Neutral Environment TX isn't FL before FL, bit anything is possible in a yr, Beto is down 5 and Crist is down 3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gov race is Safe R since we haven't passed immigration reform and Border is out of control

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why Abbott is Safe due to fact Biden has let the Border get out of control with illegal immigration

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R -> Safe D
https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1445509367437004813?s=20
Obviously kidding, but this could energize youth turnout quite a bit.

The abortion law was a huge mistake. It could be Abbott's "bathroom bill" if he's not carefull.

Abbott is Safe because of broken borders in TX that Harris was supposed to fox

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Only if VR passed will this be competetive due to Border crisis barring that safe 55/45 Abbott win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Looks like McConaughey isn’t running after all, according to the Houston Chronicle.

https://www.chron.com/politics/article/Matthew-McConaughey-Texas-governor-run-Abbott-16515854.php

This is a questionable reading of.... another reading of the interview which is literally publicly available right now. Did you stop reading after the first half of the opening paragraph?

Actor Matthew McConaughey is apparently not interested in running for Texas governor unless he thinks the role would allow him to truly make a difference.

And it's not "according to the Houston Chronicle", there is literally a transcript of the interview available here: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/07/opinion/sway-kara-swisher-matthew-mcconaughey.html?showTranscript=1

Matthew Mcconaughey
—this is— it’s a good question. No, it’s a good question. I mean, because one side is all— everything I just said. One side of the argument is, McConaughey, exactly. That’s why you need to go get in there. The other side is, pfft, that’s a bag of rats, man. Don’t touch that with a 10 foot pole. There’s another— you have another lane. You have another category to have influence, and get done things you’d like to get done, and help how you think you can help, and even heal divides. Maybe it’s much better outside of politics.

Kara Swisher
So do not grab the bag of rats, for example?

Matthew Mcconaughey
Well, again, I’m just— I don’t— it’s part— that’s part of my measure. Is it the right time, as well? I’m not a man who comes at politics from a political background. You know, I’m— I’m more of a statesman, philosopher, folk-singing poet—

The climate had changed and he is now in a deficit situation, and the Border is out of control, so any D would be disadvantage

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Something else this thread missed, Ron Paul has endorsed Huffines for governor, just like his son Rand previously did.

Also, could the DGA pour more resources into Texas than Florida?

DeSantis isn't winning by 10 ptsAbbott wins all his races by 10 but HEGAR only lost by six these races will narrow when Election nears, I doubt Rubio and DeSantis win by 12/19 pts and Mandel isn't winning by 10 he is tied  or narrowly up by 4

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't think Beto's presidential campaign hurts him, per se, because...does anyone really remember anything about his presidential campaign? I certainly don't. Basically Generic D at this point.

Your pal Harris is costing Demings as well as Beto and Crist seats in TX and FL due to not securing the Border

AOC criticized Harris for going to border for being cruel and she hasn't been back since, but you ignore that
Well, Abbott and the GOP will make sure that clips of "hell yes, we take your AK-15" run all over the place, so people will quickly be reminded again. Fear has always been a powerful driver in election campaigns, and right-wingers are experts on how run with fear tactitcs.

The main obstacle for O'Rourke will for sure be that he'll run in an unfavorable environment in a state that is Lean or Likely R abseit some D-trend over the last 10 years. This race would even be an uphill battle in a 2nd Trump midterm. O'Rourke is going to lose by at least 7-8 pts, if not 10-12 pts.

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Also, since Harris doesn't do well in IA Pete Buttigieg can beat her in IA, NH right out the gate and NV to seal the deal in primary

Without Biden the Minority gap won't be that big between Harris and BUTTIGIEG and Blk men in IN voted for Pete as Mayor

Buttigieg is Harris nightmare in 2028 primary


Hilarious that Demings is down by ,19 pts and she  reminds voters of Harris and no border patrol, Demings was recruit by Carville to best Rubio and S019 still think DEMING'S and Crist are gonna win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The D's have no shot at TX Gov or Sen Cruz is also considering running for Prez which puts Crenshaw as Fav to run for the Sen in 24, it's gonna be Cruz or Crenshaw in 24

The only real shot is OH with Brown, Ryan and Testér in 22 for DC Statehood and Brown and Tester 24, OH isn't totally Gone it has 28% Blk and Arab and have WC females, that's why Brown is cosigning with Ryan he wants to get reelected in 24

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He’s not going to win, but if he puts forward the same amount of work meeting with and registering voters like he did in 2018, it will only continue to help Democrats moving forward in Texas.

This is basically the entire point, no matter what anyone says.

Biden screwed up the Border and so did Ha4ria, Delta came thru in Dallas TX illegals aren't getting vaccinated that's why Ds lost TX

That's why Demings won't win voters are reminded of Kamala Border policy in Demings and FL is a border st too D's don't need TX or FL anyways

Whenever Covid ends, if it does open borders will be tolerated

Didn't you say HEGAR and Demings were gonna win, don't now Val is down 19 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McConaughey needs to run as a Dem/Independent or this is a guaranteed loss.

He's not running he gave a boost to Beto campaign