Texas 2022 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is over TX ACTIVOTE a D pollsters has all Rs ahead by 8 not 14 pts


GREG ABBOTT 47/40,.
52/44 Final poll

https://civiqs.com/reports/2022/11/2/election-2022-new-civiqs-polls-in-florida-north-carolina-and-arizona


FL IS STILL WINNABLE ITS NOT TX, especially DEMINGS

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This will surely flip if Ds win the H barring that it won't flip but of course we have no idea what's gonna happen

It's certainly possible we win the H because Beto is down 51/44 closer than Crist and polls underestimate poor people voted they say Rs have the edge on the Economy and they give massive tax cuts to the rich that's not poor people answering those questions

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Again, this is Over for Beto

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/reliable-blocs-dems-count-didn-160334873.html

Ds didn't turnout that much for Beto

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Exit Polls showed Governor Abbott winning 40 % of the Hispanic Vote. Abbott also had a 55/45 Job Approval in the State.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/texas-governor-results
Democrats may think twice now contesting Texas in 2024.

The Party ID in Texas in 2022 was:
R - 41
D - 30
I - 29

On a sidenote, all the Progressive Candidates Olowakandi endorsed LOST.

What happened to your 237 RH Sabato troll prediction it's down to 22o/215 the same majority Ds has ha not enough for impeachment

Ryan and Beasley and Barnes were the ones that didn't want Biden help that was their decision he was never at IPSOS 39/57 Approvals

Biden campaign for Fetterman and Hobbs and they won

Trafalgar had Lake winning ha she is losing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sigh Rs we're supposed to win 237 seats they didn't obviously the Approvals lied the Senate races went with the Approvals but the H races didnt go as expected

Trump netted seats in 2018 and had 46% Approvals

You said Trafalgar was the most accurate Pollster the failed their A rating

Dixon +1
Masters +1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/11/trafalgar-group-terrible-polling-2022.html

Meet the Trafalgar pollster that said R wave

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX voted for Rick Perry numerous times so it's not surprising that Abbott can win as many times as he wants

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This wasn't even close Beto lost by 11 and some polls had 4/6 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is vulnerable in 24, Biden is leading Trump 51(49 and he is the nominee until he isn't, but Ds don't have a candidate yet so John Love is an alternative but Inflation won't be 7% in 24

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think what is most interesting is looking at the NYT swing maps, Abbotts biggest gains over Trump was almost exclusively in rural areas which is def not what I was expecting. This prolly has to do with Beto just being toxic for these areas.

In most of the cities though, he only barely outran Trump 2020 and in Travis County (Austin) he did outright worse.

Which begs the question of how much "hell yeah I'd take your AR-15s" hurt him electorally.

Really just the rurals, but maybe a small bit in some suburbs too. Collin seemed to have a decent rightward shift.

I'm not entirely sure what caused the suburban shift. Perhaps Republican messaging about inflation cut through there.

This landslide isn't gonna happen again as well as in OH and FL because of cheap gas but was it an incumbent Eday yes it was, TX is a R +7 and FL is R +3 and OH R+5, if Eday were held today not Nov with gas Prices going down Ryan clearly would of made up 5 pts because DeSantis is projected to win OH by 5 now not on Eday which can change, and move more favorable to Ds because imminent indictment of Trump

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

R polls were heavily inflated in 22 look what happened to Walker in the Recall he underpolls and look at Victory poll I'm FL now that shows DeSantis only winning by 6 why is R polls going down because of cheap gas and TX is an oil state too

DeSantis was always at 45% in Approvals outside of FL due to Prez Tracking it was IAN and Little Havana Rubio that saved him, his polls weren't inflated when he ran with Scott