Texas 2022 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Beto wins an upset here despite the VBM, punditry is trying to compare a non competitive primary, to how many votes Beto is gonna get. Obviously, he is the Dog just like Ryan and Crist, but our Federal and state candidates will be on the ballot, obviously, Voting Rights would of helped but if we get the TRIFECTA we will have 52 seats no Manchin and Sinema obstetrician, Approvals predicted Trump was golms lose a Landslide, but he didn't because unemployment was down from 9 to 7.5 and now it's 4

Obviously, the die hard Beto supporters voters but more will come and Beto is only down 7 not 15

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once the War winds down a 9 pt lead isn't a blow out in TX with Latinos and Beto can come back he isn't Valdez and primary was non competitive stop thinking that a primary is gonna be rep of GE where all Federal candidates are gonna be on the ballot

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A nine pt lead in a Latino state isn't that large with nine MNTHS left the primary on the D side was non competitive and D's and Rs are gonna have everyone on the ballot in November just like in VA everyone wasn't on the ballot in 2022 our Federal candidates weren't on the ballot and we lost

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Remember not to extrapolate too much on basis of primary turnout results.

Primary turnout is more predictive than polls at this point. It was one of the key indicators rebuffing the polling narrative in 2020. So forgive me if I don't think we should just forget about it. Obviously, the margins/turnout aren't predictive in of itself but comparatively, it is.
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Lol the D primary had no competetive race and all D candidates will be on the ballot in Nov unlike in Primary when races were uncontested that's why we lost VA we had State races but no Federal races, there won't be this large difference in D v R turnout

Do you know how many votes pundits are predicting 140 M which helps D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

9 pts in TX is nothing in 140 M vote turnout Election that's why Crist is completetive in FL and some polls Crist leads in

https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/opinion/editorials/2022/03/15/florida-democrats-should-settle-now-one-candidate-face-desantis/7026921001/

This articles explain watch out for Latino vote in Red states

DeSantis is now the most overrated politician running for reelection that's why FL is turning back blue

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sorry to tell Rs if FL is competitive and it is, TX is competitive too, I know a sweep is a stretch but if you have TX you have FL, something is going on, there are enough Latinos on both states that definitely want PR Statehood

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sorry to tell Rs if FL is competitive and it is, TX is competitive too, I know a sweep is a stretch but if you have TX you have FL, something is going on, there are enough Latinos on both states that definitely want PR Statehood

Both won't be in single digits and are Safe R. Unfortunately.

o
Do you know that the 12 pt poll was a University poll from FL both University of FL and St Leo poll have DeSantis up 12 the same QU poll that has Biden at 39 and had Biden ahead on the Final weekend, stop trusting University polls.

The same University polls overpredicted Biden and now underpredicting him now

If it's trueky a 303 map Trump won FL by 3 not 12 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We all know FL is more swingy than TX we are not gonna win FL we are targeting blue dog seats OH, MO Sen and FL Gov and LA Sen all blue dogs competitive, Fettetman is definitely working class a s so is Mark Kelly

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abbott is gonna win by 1o 55)45 it's not much gonna happen with these Biden Approvals in TX anyways...

Beto was only a backdrop to Matthew McConaughey who was smart enough not to take on TX, but it appeared winnable for Beto because TX always is within 6 pts but D's like HEGAR couldn't get below that number

Nothing to see, ANYMORE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden immigration policies hurts D's in TX/FL and Beto is to the left of Biden on amnesty and Guns anyways

Abbott wins l55/45 like he did over Valdez,GAME OVER

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As one of my friends said stop beating a tired horse it's OVER in TX
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It's a 303 2012/2016/2018/2020 and 2010/14 it was a 235 map because Rs had Supermajority it's WI PA and MI the war in Ukraine gonna have to end before the Election in order for D's to win TX and it's an oil state like AK and want Biden to open up Keystone

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I feel sorry for Beto, Crist, Nan W there all raising on Act Blue and they're all gonna lose in a 303 map and they want us to donate and they stopped Stimulus checks in lieu of Ukraine

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Ukraine war has made the oil states like TX and AK even more anyways due to Biden implementing Keystone anyways , but is this a cause to give up on the Election no, we don't need but the big three anyways and Rs still favor tax cuts for the Wealthy, that's why Boris Johnson whom support Tax cuts has a 33/61 APPROVALS

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto wants to be relevant again and he saught higher office again because Biden isn't gonna put him in his Cabinet, he thought Voting Rights was gonna pass and it didn't that's why he is losing, he put all his eggs on Sinema doing the right thing and she didn't, that's why Abbott is gonna win by 55/45

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would not be shocked if she lost.

I'm actually moving the race from lean D to tossup. I think Mealer or even Vidal Martinez could win even if it's narrow.

Also remember for a major county like Harris, it's not as dem as y'all think.

This is certainly true. Cornyn and Abbott won it as late as 2014, and even Ted Cruz carried it in his first race back in 2012. Biden only marginally improved there compared to Hillary Clinton, a major reason why Trump comfortably held Texas in 2020. And Hidalgo, who has never been a strong or particularly popular incumbent, was swept in by the 2018 wave.

Harris being relatively R for such a large county is largely because of turnout differentials. It's very much a case where Dems rely on low turnout minority communities whereas white R high turnout burbs cancel out a lot of it.

If 2022 comes down to poor Dem turnout, Harris County would likely be disproportionately impacted, on the flipside there's more upside for Dems with strong turnout.

It's crazy to think how a D + 10ish County basically gets 3.5 dedicated D packs on the congressional level with pretty extreme splitting on Rs part. Texas-29 for instance only cast a total of 174k ballots when most CDs nationally are well over 300k or 400k votes. Nearby TX-38 which is def the favored side of Houston cast 358k votes in 2020 and cast over 25k more votes for Biden despite voting 50+ points to the right. Now just imagine if TX-29 had the same turnout as TX-38

This is how Biden was still able to gain out of Harris County despite the swing map looking brutal for him within the County; turnout in these counties during the 2016 Pres race was even worse.

You do realize iits only April it's not over yet the Election is in November

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He only jumped into race he thought Sinema was gonna pass Voting Rights now it's impossible for him to win he gonna lose 10/15 pts

Abbott 55/45

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden immigration policies are a disaster

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bruh
https://twitter.com/newswire_us/status/1522265512444583936?s=21&t=PoSr---ePv...

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The state Legislature is R Dominated so it's unlikely to pass even if he was Gov just like Crist if he becomes Gov, he can't raise taxes with an R state Legislature it's MOOT

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bruh
https://twitter.com/newswire_us/status/1522265512444583936?s=21&t=PoSr---ePv...

Beto 2022 feels a lot like Wendy Davis 2014. The campaign does all it can to make Austin liberals happy but doesn't really do anything to attract the oh so coveted "moderate" suburban swing voters. This race was always going to be an uphill battle, but it feels like Texas Dems aren't really even trying.

Tbf I do think the degree they need these "swing suburban voters" to win Texas is overrated. Also it's important to remember by and large folks support abortions. Like, most swing voters prolly at least agree abortion should be allowed in cases of rape and incest, though that doesn't mean this isn't poor messaging.

No legal restrictions on abortion means legal procedures on the third trimester and right up until just before birth, which is a particularly Twitter-brain and gross position to take, and definitely not supported by the majority of people in Texas.

He would be limited with an R dominated State legislature this is amoot issue

Users get so giddy off of one issue

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abbott is under 50 so there is a chance I keep telling users partisan trends don't apply in Midterms as in Prez especially when Rs underperform in KY in 2019abd Call recall 21

Why is NC tied because we won NC in 2018 a Midterm

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It really doesn't matter Beto is trailing Abbott by 6 pts the same as Hegar lost to Cornyn, the Environmenr has to dramatic improve in order for Beto to win

Rs will win their must win state TX, but in IL, PA, WI and MI it will be pivot in those races

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope users realize by now it's not a 413 map it never was and it's a 303 map in this Environment, but it's not an R nut map either Mark Kelly is safe

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In this Environment TX is going red

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX is the most open carry gun state in the nation, and unless there are multiple mass shootings in the state it's a red state Trump is very popular in OH, TX and FL, IA and NC

As I said it's gonna resonate in PA because Toomey won his race over McGinty because he supports background checks

In this Environment it's a 303 map it's not a 413 map it's been like this since Hillary narrowly lost and in 2016 we won 2018, 41H seats but we win 303 GOVS

Beto is trailing by six pts the same as Hegar lost by it's not gonna get closer, you see what Cruz said he told Beto to sit down but red flags laws threat Rick Scott made in TX may pass

Once the Ukraine war started with another oil war, it flipped back to a 303 map but it's not an R nut map MI Gov is close and Kelly is safe in AZ and Pritzker is gonna win but not by 11 but 5 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Election Guy believes the Rs are the majority and they have lost the popular vote in every election except 2010/2014