Florida 2022 Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Crist wants Biden endorsement he probably is waiting to pick Gwen Graham

https://news.yahoo.com/crist-praises-biden-says-president-165312899.html

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna get close FL, OH, NC are gonna be too early, too close to call on Eday

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A poll just came out today showing a 51/46 race and all the users like in OH Sen thinks it's over with lol it's not over with we still have to vote

Users forget about NY 19 and AK alot they just think Red states the Rs have this, no they don't

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis isn't winning by double digits in an R plus 3 state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He ran against Murphy not Demings and Demings is over performing Crist anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/sources-crist-picks-teachers-union-214024865.html

Crist picks Karia Hernandez as running mate not Gwen Graham

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis isn't winning by double digits in an R plus 3 state

By that logic, Rubio shouldn’t have won by 8 in the same year Trump won by only 1.

Rubio didn't go out of his way to become a polarizing fireband. Like there are 3 ways that Desantis outperforms Trump is by either getting a lot of Biden voters to vote for him, getting non-voter for him or hoping democratic turnout craters.

Which of these is likley ?

Most likely non-voters

Ironically non-voters in FL are voters you'd demographically expect to skew heavily D, so if this does turn out to be true, it'd be very imrpessive on DeSantis's part.

I think what's most likely if the GOP generally just does a better job at showing up allowing DeSantis a 7-8 point win, but he doesn't significantly improve on Trump's margins in many communities.

DeSantis isn't winning by 8 pts and you know it he is only up five c'mon

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not safe R 5 pts is 5 pts so was AK AL and NY 19 Safe R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not talking to Rs on this forum I know where they stand this is the same Sir Muhammad that overpredicted FL in 2020 and now he's a DeSantis supporter, Lol you can look at his prediction he has FL colored D in 2020

We don't need FL but I put it on my map like OH, NC and AL, TX and sD in case we won it because you can't update your map on EDay

But, Sir Muhammad is a D not an R that's why I critique him

No your EDay map don't have to accurate some users like Sir Muhammad and Progressive Moderate think they get brownie pts for making an accurate map no you don't it's scored but I rather lose pts of overpredicted not underpredicted

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is wave insurance but it has Blk and brown voters in OH, NC and FL as I have said many times it's not needed but irs not outrageous to think they can flip and Crist was Gov already he has visited all 67 counties from 2007/2011 as a Moderate R like DeSantis, the reason why DeSantis has a slight edge because he did a great job with Surfside but he can still lose

As the polls indicated already Demings is more likely to win than Crist but she can pull Crist over

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis is favored but let's not forget in 2012 Bill Nelson of FL and Sherrod Brown races werent called when the polls close we can get a 2012 EDay where Ds lose the H and rack up S and Govs because our Sen and Gov candidates except for Beto are stronger than H in 2010 we lost 60 H seats and kept a 53 seat majority in the SENATE

COOK already said D's can rack up Sen and Gov races and lose the H

Everyone thinks Sherrod Brown is unbeatable, Rs didn't try in 2018 and the race wasn't even called in 2006/12 when polls were closed and we had the Astronaut Bill Nelson as SEN from FL

Brown said Ryan must win or Josh Mandel will target him in 24 regardless Brown isn't gonna easily win in 24 like he did in 2018

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

UWs forget Rs give massive tax cuts for the richest Americans did UWS ever pay attention that we won AK and NY 19 and we were the underdogs in, apparently he doesn't

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yet Crist only is down 5 pts, 51/46

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hahaha, LOL
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1564674715846934530

What happens in PA when DeSantis campaigned for Mastriano he is still down double digits like 51/39 even campaign for Mastriano and 7 Rs just endorsed Shapiro we don't need FL but Rs need PA and they are losing all the blue wall States

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Again, he campaign with Mastriano and it didn't move a needle of Mastriano polls, so even if he wins he isn't winning a blue state, it's questionable about AZ when he campaign with Lake but he doesn't need AZ to win 24 he needs WI, VA, MI and PA and Tim Kaine is on the ballot and Bob Casey Jr and STABENOW and Tammy Baldwin and Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson in 2012, she won in 2018 by 10 pts she is no weak links

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They have an R registration advantage in AK and we won AK please DeSantis is up 51/46 he won't win by more than what Trump won bye if at all it's wave insurance anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With an R state legislature he won't raise taxes but if must know in a poll recently Demings was ahead UNF poll 48/44 while deSantis was ahead 51/46 I don't expect to sweep everything but we can win 1 of these races like OH Ryan is winning while DeWine is winning

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rubio only up by 3 pts a different than the UNF poll but it's still close Rs are doing about the same as 2020 in FL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

When we get results I have it colored D just in case it turns blue because FL is the first Battleground state up I know it's a 303 map but Rs stl think Oz is gonna win too and Mastriano and Oz are down 51/39 more than Crist and Demings you have Ancestor Democrat s think Oz is gonna win, he's not

Then it's NC and we're gonna win PA, NY and NH then it's battleground OH, WI and IL and skip TX we're gonna win Cali, WA and NV and GA is going to Runoff

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/mdixon55/status/1564950298346545152?s=21&t=WWM15TbkaUZ8_...

Awww, as if our majority wasn't close enough already. Really should stay till January. He's not going to win the governorship anyways.

Lol , we're gonna pickup AK and replace him, you really can't wait until EDay to declare Crist Doomed lol stop Dooming until Crist or DeSantis are declared the winner

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rubio only up 1 and Crist down by 3, blue wave DeSantis isn't winning by 8

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Newsom is a terrible Gov in Cali the only reason why Calis rejected Elder because Leader McCarthy isnt well liked by Cali residents because he protects Matt GAETZ and Gingrich impeached Bill Clinton on sex crimes and Matt GAETZ is pals with DeSantis

But, Cali is bad

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's only 46/45 Rubio and 48/45 DeSathis aren't blowout numbers

Crist maynot win but we don't need the Governorship all pundits are predicting Ryan and Demings have a 50/50 chance over Crist and Nan W and Beasley, we will be watching OH, NC and FL Sen races and FL 15 and NC 13

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vance has lost every poll except Traggy and Ryan is at 50(47 Ryan is definitely gonna win and Budd has been tied in every poll

That Impact poll that shows Ryan up is a reputable poll it is an AARP all the Vance and Ryan leafs are all 3/5 pts within MOE

Just a note on 2008 Liddy Dole and Gordon Smith were favored to win they LOST, and don't give me Iraq War as an excuse, because Bush W had similar Approvals as Trump

Chambliss was expecting to win by a landslide and he had to go to a runoff and Ted Stevens was favored whom was Veep back then Joe Biden he campaign his butt off for Merkley, Hagen and Begich

The same rule applies as in OH, NC and FL all the internals had Gordon Smith, Liddy Dole and Ted Stevens

It's wave insurance but the maps are blank on EDay just like Rs were underdogs in netting H seats 538 gave D's a 56% of netting H seats D's can overperform on the Senate side

Rs never talk about 538 and how it gave Rs a very low chance if netting H seats, the same rule applies and Biden hasn't been impeached Trump has

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why do y’all even try to argue with this olawakandi fool? Can’t y’all see he’s a bot account?

even a doubting Thomas will become a believer upon seeing miracles take place

The maps are blank on EDay , there are no ratings if Rs can overperform polls and 538 had us favored to net gain H seats in 2020 and we lost seats we won Ak and NY we can win OH, NC and FL I expect the Rs to win the H that's not gonna stop us from winning OH, NC and FL SEN ANS AND FL GOV

Guess what in 2012 Rs had 241 H SEATS and we won WV, MT, OH and FL Sen