PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are gonna have a high Turnout, D's just passed 2K Stimulus packages for people, D are plus 4 on the Generic ballot, Gaetz, George Floyd and Voter suppression laws hurt Rs among females and Afro Americans.

Does MT Treasurer not realize people aren't greatful for the Stimulus checks that just received from Biden, D's are plus 9 on Voter ID that just came out

Rs keep losing on the Generic ballot by 3 points, if it's replicated they are gonna lose OH, IA, FL and NC.  You don't keep losing the PVI and have a monopoly on those states that Rs think they have


The Election is 500 days from now, wait until next yr polling, it will come around after we sweep Cali recall, NJ and VA races

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a PVI Election of 2 or better D's are gonna win PA and WI and NH nomatter what

Rs haven't lead on Ballot since 2016 plus 1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I get that some people seem to think the Democratic primary is all that matters in this race (this race seems to be the new poster child for Atlas' "Democratic candidate quality matters, all Republican candidates are clowns" shtick), but no Republican will be "toast" in a general election for federal office in PA in 2022, please get real.

One potentially strong Republican candidate hasn't even announced yet-Guy Reschenthaler. This Senate race is certainly not one which Democrats can take for granted. It's as if people forget that Biden only won the state by slightly over 1%, and he was considered to be the best fit of any Democratic presidential candidate for it.

Biden won though despite the fact that Trump got all of his Trumpers out to vote, which does not happen in off year elections as we've seen. There was record turnout, with Trump nearly maxing out his rurals in PA, and he still lost by 80,000 votes. So it kinda goes both ways here. The GOP candidate is not going to have that advantage, as we saw with 2018 and the special elections since 2016.

If you take a look at polling you will find that roughly 60/65% of Biden voters strongly approve Biden's job but you have rougly 70/75% of Trump voters who strongly disapprove his job. That's what should worry democrats. If there is an intensity gap it won't be in favour of democrats, to put it simply the voters who vote in midterms are those who love/hate the president, those who are soft approvers are not going to vote in large numbers, so if these numbers stand it's very possible that the 2022 electorate will feature less Biden voters than Trump voters.

Lol the Rs haven't won the PVI since 2016 when Hillary lost, 2018 D plus8, 2020 D plus 3.1 and 2022 D's are leading plus 4

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Senate is gonna stay D, D's will win 51/49 while GA goes R, the Morning Consult poll clearly shows Hassan will win, but the Rs can take H by winning 10 seats or so or if Covid improves D's can win it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need to see primary and GE polls to see how strong Fetterman is but is very much like Bob Casey Jr

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We know how great a candidate Fetterman is where are polls, especially the primary and they keep polling NH

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Ds are favs in WI, PA and NH

The state that is worrisome is GA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need to see 1 poll from this State

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lamb is likely to run.

Fetterman is gonna win, even with Lamb entry

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's likely D takeover along with WI anyways so any of the 3 candidates will win, Fetterman, Lamb or Keyanetta

WI, PA, GA and NH are Lean D, and Hassen isn't DOA unless a PPP or Change Research has her losing and we have none

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't know a damn thing about PA politics, so would Fitzpatrick be a good nominee for the GOP there?

Yes, but he’s probably too liberal to win a primary.

Damn it, Toomey, damn you! Costing us a seat.

.
Biden have everyone 1400 stimulus checks and more maybr on the way, Biden is he on a resurrect to he 306 FREIWAL with popular programs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If the apparatus backs Lamb, it will mark my point of no return with the Democratic Party. Manchinism must be stopped if the party is truly interested in making policy.

If D's go out 53 seats, Manchin would vote for DC Statehood, he is only opposing DC Statehood due to fact D's as of now lack votes to end Filibuster

This is a Lean D takeover along with WI and GA and NH and OH Lean D I if you go by polls, PPP has Nelson, Evers leading and Ryan tied. I expect in a wave a 52/47 Senate and GA going to a Runoff and Manchin votes for Statehood after D's get rid of Filibuster after 2022

Lamb or Fetterman can win, but Fetterman is the nominee

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Fetterman has the stamina to withstand Keyanetta or Lamb, have you seen Fetterman on TV he is tough just like Bob Casey Jr, he will withstand a Lamb or Keyanetta challenge and should because if we lose PA without Fetterman, we can kiss the Senate goidbye


FETTERMAN IS OUR NOMINEE AS I SAID BEFORE, HE ISNT LOSING AND ON CSPAN, CALLERS SAID THEY ARE VOTING FOR FETTERMAN, PA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI, PA, NH are Lean D, Change Research has Nelson and Evers leading in WI and had Hassan at 55 percent Approvals and Fetterman is gonna win in PA, that clinched the Senate, GA, IA, OH, NC give us wave insurance and GA is a Runoff anyways and POP has Ryan tied

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wolf has a 53% approvals just like Evers and the two seats are strongly leaning D as I said before, D's performance matches that of approvals of Prez party and along with NH, Hassan in the Change Research poll had a 55% Approvals

Likely D with Fetterman or Lamb

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

When are we gonna get a POLL ALREADY

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wolf and Evers have a 53% Approvals so WI and PA are D pickups and Hassan has a 55% Approvals

It goes by Approvals of the INCUMBENT party so I think all 3 will win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The state has significant African American population and Wolf has had no scandals just like Rs think Whitmer will lose and the state Reelected Granholm.

African Americans aren't gonna vote R In numbers they did in 2016/2020, we hich Trump improved on, due to one thing Insurrectionists

That's why we have a chance in MO, NC and FL Gov due to African Americans turning against GOP party.

Trump improved his numbers with blacks in OH, that's why he won Mahoning County

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Parnell only lost to a Dem incumbent by two points in a district that voted to the left of the state in the presidential race when the national House vote was D+3.  Even in an even popular vote environment, he could easily win statewide.

Not really, Wolf Approvals are 53%,, it's gonna be hard for either party to break into either ones turf because everuly INCUMBENT Gov is at 50% or above and this along with WI are having Gov races where INCUMBENT party is fav

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The voters of PA aren't gonna let Fetterman go as an Elected official, he is gonna win big in the primary and GE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't know why all these candidates on the list we had Fetterman, they should of jumped into Govs race

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The key takeaway for me from this poll is that none of the SEPA candidates are the true threat to Fetterman's candidacy. As expected, they all are splitting the region's vote with each other.

The real threat is Lamb.

No one is beating Fetterman

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yikes, that’s an awful poll, though hopefully Lamb’s numbers go up when he officially announces. He’s the only candidate that would keep this race a toss-up; the rest of these jokers shift it to Likely R at best.

This is based on what again?

The embarrassing campaign Fetterman has run so far? The fact that he’s never won a competitive election?

hack

Let them believe what they want, the Rs haven't won the PVI since 2014 that's 7 yrs ago they lost it in 2016 by 2 to Hilary, lost it by 8 in 2018 and lost it by 4 in 2020, now they are trying to blame the Trump Covid Recession on Biden, because Rs in 2017 passed an unaffordable tax cuts for rich

They got away with it in 2010 and that Recession was caused too by Bush W deficit tax cuts for rich passed in 2001

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No polls will change my prediction: Fetterman will win the primary, hold a significant lead in polling, and then lose to the Republican by 2-3 points.

You said D's were gonna lose GA too, why should we listen to you and Milineienial Moderate whom constantly underestate D's and then you said Peters was gonna lose MI

Just like Milineienial Moderate said that Kelly was DoA and he is up by 10