PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[ElectionsGuy]

Why are people writing off Parnell? He did well in the district against a well known and well liken incumbent

Because according to the Atlas hive mind anybody who is a "Trumpist" is a bad candidate who cannot do better than Trump himself.

[Lognog]

Parnell will have a hard time explaining his lawsuit and why he expected courts to throw out all mail ballots and have them just declare him the winner in PA-17 and Trump in PA. Don't care about his past service, he is a traitor to this country.

you're grossly over estimating people's ability to remember that. Voters have grown mostly numb to scandals

[Mr.Phips]

Parnell only lost to a Dem incumbent by two points in a district that voted to the left of the state in the presidential race when the national House vote was D+3.  Even in an even popular vote environment, he could easily win statewide.

[Meatball Ron]

Parnell only lost to a Dem incumbent by two points in a district that voted to the left of the state in the presidential race when the national House vote was D+3.  Even in an even popular vote environment, he could easily win statewide.

Not saying you're totally wrong here, but a counterpoint is that he was likely a much better fit for that specific district, PA-17 (even if it voted left of the state overall) than he would be for much of the rest of the state, namely the Philly suburbs. Easy to see him over-performing Trump or the GOP Governor candidate in PA-17 but seriously underperforming them in PA-04, PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, and maybe even PA-10.

[Xing]

I don't think Parnell would be an especially good candidate, but that doesn't mean that the environment won't be good enough for him to win.

[Lognog]

Parnell only lost to a Dem incumbent by two points in a district that voted to the left of the state in the presidential race when the national House vote was D+3.  Even in an even popular vote environment, he could easily win statewide.

Not saying you're totally wrong here, but a counterpoint is that he was likely a much better fit for that specific district, PA-17 (even if it voted left of the state overall) than he would be for much of the rest of the state, namely the Philly suburbs. Easy to see him over-performing Trump or the GOP Governor candidate in PA-17 but seriously underperforming them in PA-04, PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, and maybe even PA-10.

Counter point to that: PA-17 is a mostly suburban district. Pittsburgh and Philly burbs aren't the exact same, but he's proven to do well in the suburbs

[Meatball Ron]

Parnell only lost to a Dem incumbent by two points in a district that voted to the left of the state in the presidential race when the national House vote was D+3.  Even in an even popular vote environment, he could easily win statewide.

Not saying you're totally wrong here, but a counterpoint is that he was likely a much better fit for that specific district, PA-17 (even if it voted left of the state overall) than he would be for much of the rest of the state, namely the Philly suburbs. Easy to see him over-performing Trump or the GOP Governor candidate in PA-17 but seriously underperforming them in PA-04, PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, and maybe even PA-10.

Counter point to that: PA-17 is a mostly suburban district. Pittsburgh and Philly burbs aren't the exact same, but he's proven to do well in the suburbs

Yeah I wasn't talking so much about rural versus suburban as the difference in character between Philly burbs and Pittsburgh burbs. But we'll see!

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Why are people writing off Parnell? He did well in the district against a well known and well liken incumbent

Because according to the Atlas hive mind anybody who is a "Trumpist" is a bad candidate who cannot do better than Trump himself.

true

[Meatball Ron]

Why are people writing off Parnell? He did well in the district against a well known and well liken incumbent

Because according to the Atlas hive mind anybody who is a "Trumpist" is a bad candidate who cannot do better than Trump himself.

Have you ever written a post making any point other than "Atlas Dems are hacks"?

I'm not even saying you're wrong, just that man, the shtick has to be a little tiring.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Parnell only lost to a Dem incumbent by two points in a district that voted to the left of the state in the presidential race when the national House vote was D+3.  Even in an even popular vote environment, he could easily win statewide.

Not really, Wolf Approvals are 53%,, it's gonna be hard for either party to break into either ones turf because everuly INCUMBENT Gov is at 50% or above and this along with WI are having Gov races where INCUMBENT party is fav

[brucejoel99]

Why are people writing off Parnell? He did well in the district against a well known and well liken incumbent

Because according to the Atlas hive mind anybody who is a "Trumpist" is a bad candidate who cannot do better than Trump himself.

Have you ever written a post making any point other than "Atlas Dems are hacks"?

I'm not even saying you're wrong, just that man, the shtick has to be a little tiring.

I'd actually be surprised if it ever tired him out, given that it's literally his entire personality now.

[Lambsbread]

🚨🚨🚨WE'VE GOT A POLL FOLKS, THIS IS NOT A DRILL🚨🚨🚨

Granted, it's an internal through DFP, but:

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1395393004882509827?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The voters of PA aren't gonna let Fetterman go as an Elected official, he is gonna win big in the primary and GE

[Lief 🗽]

Yikes, that’s an awful poll, though hopefully Lamb’s numbers go up when he officially announces. He’s the only candidate that would keep this race a toss-up; the rest of these jokers shift it to Likely R at best.

[Comrade Funk]

Fetterman is a unique candidate. Lamb won't excite anyone to the polls.

[KaiserDave]

Let's gooooo!!!

Fettermentum!

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Yikes, that’s an awful poll, though hopefully Lamb’s numbers go up when he officially announces. He’s the only candidate that would keep this race a toss-up; the rest of these jokers shift it to Likely R at best.

This is based on what again?

[Lambsbread]

Yikes, that’s an awful poll, though hopefully Lamb’s numbers go up when he officially announces. He’s the only candidate that would keep this race a toss-up; the rest of these jokers shift it to Likely R at best.

This is based on what again?

Clearly not the poll posted above or the one showing Fetterman leading Bartos and Parnell by ~10 points while Lamb falls within the MoE...

[Lief 🗽]

Yikes, that’s an awful poll, though hopefully Lamb’s numbers go up when he officially announces. He’s the only candidate that would keep this race a toss-up; the rest of these jokers shift it to Likely R at best.

This is based on what again?

The embarrassing campaign Fetterman has run so far? The fact that he’s never won a competitive election?

[KaiserDave]

An "embarrassing" campaign that is leaps and bounds ahead of the opposition!

For all of that sound and fury over Kenyatta, he remains far far behind

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't know why all these candidates on the list we had Fetterman, they should of jumped into Govs race

[SnowLabrador]

No polls will change my prediction: Fetterman will win the primary, hold a significant lead in polling, and then lose to the Republican by 2-3 points.

[Zaybay]

The key takeaway for me from this poll is that none of the SEPA candidates are the true threat to Fetterman's candidacy. As expected, they all are splitting the region's vote with each other.

The real threat is Lamb.

[Mexican Wolf]

The key takeaway for me from this poll is that none of the SEPA candidates are the true threat to Fetterman's candidacy. As expected, they all are splitting the region's vote with each other.

The real threat is Lamb.

I tend to agree, but my friend who's involved in both the Huntingdon and Centre County Democratic Committees says that Kenyatta has been reaching out to, supporting, and getting endorsements from several officeholders and candidates in both counties. I'm not sure how much of an effect those connections and endorsements will have when it comes time to vote, but I still think it's worth keeping an eye on.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The key takeaway for me from this poll is that none of the SEPA candidates are the true threat to Fetterman's candidacy. As expected, they all are splitting the region's vote with each other.

The real threat is Lamb.

No one is beating Fetterman