WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes raises $20M. He still has a chance - but it's all about what he does with that money.

https://twitter.com/lauren_chou/status/1577631553072627712

It's too late. That money would have been helpful in late August. There was clearly an opening after he won the primary, before the dark money came in and defined him, but that was his only shot.

Was he supposed to raise $20M in 2 weeks after the primary

Obviouslt that would have been difficult, I'm just saying that's what's needed to truly go toe-to-toe with Johnson and the dark money interests that are so influential in Wisconsin politics and prop him up. It's not an indictment of Barnes as much as it is an indictment of the messy state of our campaign finance laws.

Lol Data 4 Progress just polled this race CCM, Kotek and Barnes are all down by 2 pts Ds aren't bailing on Barnes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I’m really skeptical that Barnes wins this. Literally every time I get in my car I hear another radio ad attacking him, and I’ve heard zero response from Barnes. I haven’t seen any attack ads against RonJon for anything-not about his stupid Jan 6th comments, or his vaccine conspiracies, etc. RonJon and his Allies have destroyed Barnes, and no response. That’s why the polls are widening.

Our Early voting is the best there is trust it, if Rs don't have a 5 pt lead they're gonna lose that's the lesson of AK and NY 19 WI is a blue not red state, it's within MOE it's 2 not 6 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson always is behind and narrowly wins, Feongold was ahead of Johnson in 2010/16 and was supposed to be Senator but it's a 303 map as I keep saying CCM and Kotek are down 2 and they expect to win just like Barnes expects to win it's called voting not go by polls

Fetterman and Kelly and Shapiro and Whitmer have all had leads of 6 pts or better Johnson had a 4 pt lead and down to 2 that proves his support along with LAXALT isn't gonna hold up

Where is his 10 pts lead where is Budd 10 pts lead they are all soft and as close as the Gov race is in SD Bengs can upset Thune

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Suggestions for a new thread title?

Close the Barnes Door

Yeah right close the door on Walker

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the right line of attack to use against Johnson. However, the problem is that he started the attack too late. If Barnes had begun going for the jugular a month or two ago, he might still be in the game.

Do you ever stop Dooming it's called voting not going by polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know the Doomers are back

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Next week after Monday they are gonna release a lot of Data 4 Progress polls in WI, PA, AZ and NV LAXALT and Johnson are only 1/2 pts ahead that's not Lean R it's a Tossup, it's not a coincidence that Trafalgar isn't polling every state they are giving ground to Data 4 Progress and they showed Johnson up 4 not 2

As I have entered many polls, users need to chill on this race just because Fetterman and Shapiro and Whitmer are up 6/9 pts which they also did Casey, Wolf and Whitmer in 2012/14/18 not every race we are gonna win by blowouts look at OK Hofmeister is up three and there are Doomers, but Warnock is also up 12

Evers and Barnes barely beat Walker and they didn't have to recount it because Walker served too many terms already and it was in state law a 4 th T if Walker loses there is no recount

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/DanielBice/status/1580661289784733696?t=wJokaoTpYE9Sr0SH6kA6...

I hope Democratic primary voters learn their lesson after this guy loses by 10 points.

He's up by 1 pt to all the DOOMERS

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/DanielBice/status/1580661289784733696?t=wJokaoTpYE9Sr0SH6kA6...

I hope Democratic primary voters learn their lesson after this guy loses by 10 points.

I blame Ron Kind more for not taking the risk and jumping into this race instead of just retiring.

Barnes is leading in the poll we haven't even voting yet and Dooming has already started this same Barnes and Evers beat Kleefisch and Walker in 2018 narrowly WI always close , even in 2018 a D yr, if Evers is 6 pts ahead Johnson is not 5 pts ahead

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You will see didnt Snow Labrador wrongly predict GA going red in 2020 and MI Gary Peters losing 2020 yes he did why should we listen to him now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just a reminder Tammy Baldwin against Tommy Thompson wasn't called at poll closing it was rated too close to call when Obama won it Evers can win this state as soon as polls closed and Barnes can be behind 48/49 like BALDWIN but what saves Barnes and Kotek aren't 15 K or 50 K but 230 K provisions ballots some users think Provisions ballots are only a small portion it's not it's mixed in with military ballots

That's why it's a mistake for users to assume Johnson plus 1is Lean R because Baldwin was down 1 at poll closing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is over. Barnes would be lucky to keep it within 5 points.

Lol this race is not over, do you know what 3% is, 300K votes, guess how many Provisional ballots there are statewide 300K and Johnson won by 3% and with Evers leading Johnson is unlikely to get every last vote as last time

People don't know the definition of Provisions ballots it not 10K even though a candidate can squeak by 15K votes with Provisions ballots it's 300K votes, Johnson is probably ahead by day 100K votes 1% and 150K can overtake Johnson lead

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is over. Barnes would be lucky to keep it within 5 points.

I wouldn't say it's over and I think Barnes will come well within 5 pts., he's just a clear underdog. Over the summer I thought he may have a chance, but that hope has vanished. Johnson lately gained the upper again, though he most likely was never going to lose. Expecting him to win by 2-3 pts.

Lol Johnson won by 300 K and he is only 1 pt ahead that 180 K provisions ballots Barnes only have to win 150 K more votes than Feingold and Johnson isn't gonna over performed Michels by 5 , with Kleefisch she would have won but not now why do you like Johnson anyways he said he's gonna supeona Hunter Biden if Rs get control he didn't suppena Biden in 2020 Biden wasn't Prez

Did you know Feingold was ahead of Johnson in 2010?16 and Feingold Lost thats how inelastic WI is the underdog win, Baldwin didn't have a race but she was the clear underdog in 2012 against Thompson WI was called for Obama that year and. Baldwin was down by one 48/49 like Barnes is now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Interesting...

https://twitter.com/natashakorecki/status/1582079242808201217

These are things you do when you're very confident about your chances of winning.

I mean, unironically speaking, Johnson should be confident. He's leading in all the polls now, and since when has polling underestimated Democrats in Wisconsin?

Lol this race is a Tossup it's a 303 map in 2020

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/former-packers-coach-mike-holmgren-201026946.html

Mike Holmgren campaigns for Barnes if we win WI it's over

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Ds won AK and completetive in MT we can certainly win WI Senate and Tammy Baldwin is gonna win anyways in 24 Es can forget Trump or DeSantis winning with WI with Baldwin, she is much stronger than Barnes and same tier as Evers it's worth noting Evers has a Latino LT Gov that helps him with WC voters too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes was the wrong candidate for this race. Johnson remains the luckiest guy in Republican politics.

Have we voted yet, Fetterman is down by the same amount of polls now 5 I wouldn't be Dooming until after it's all over I still haven't moved my prediction except for FL and TX

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The double standard is sickening. For supporting racial justice, Barnes is a "radical", but for all of Johnson's antics, he's still seen as more reasonable. And this is the state that reelected Baldwin by 11 points in 2018 (though, for what it's worth, I think she narrowly loses in 2024.)

You tend to Doom even before the polls close the only person assured victory are Abbott and DeSantis that's up by 11

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/wisconsin-u-senate-election-updates-120049254.html

Obama endorses Barnes on TV he will do the same for Fetterman

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We're gonna get some WI polls next week most of polls have Evers ahead anyways I seriously doubt Barnes underpolled Evers just like Fetterman isn't gonna underpoll Shapiro that much

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Another Doomer Barnes thread we need to wait til WI polls closes

Tammy Baldwin is on the ballot any ways and Evers is likely to win so Rs aren't gonna win WInin 24 with Evers and Baldwin

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes seems to have failed in portraying Ron Johnson as an elitist insider whose political views are out of touch with the mainstream electorate. Barnes should (have) pressed Johnson on what specific policy proposals he wants to ease economic hartships and tackle inflation (aside from focusing on abortion). And ask Johnson why he hasn't delivered on that already.

Johnson also deserves more flack for breaking his two-term promise. I think this would be very easy to attack him on, or just as a typical pay-for-play politician who only cares about winning reelection.

Now, I'm not sure this would have been enough and I'm not a political organizer who's deeply into Wisconsin specifics, but I feel like this was a missed opportunity. At least to give Johnson a tougher run for his money. The election of course hasn't happened so far, but I don't see Barnes winning anymore. A 52-48% split is probably the best he can hope for at this point.

What did I tell you about polls it's a 303 map anyways Zeldin, Oz, Master, Johnson, LAXALT are gonna wind up at 45 percent Biden and all our D GOVs arre at 50/45 Approvals just like Biden won last time the Polls are FALLACIOUS in the 303 but not red states

Greenberg 51)47 Ds lead on GCB guess what 2020 GCB 51/47 not RASSY

Johnson isn't at 50 Approvals like DeSantis he is at 45 percent where he is gonna wind up like Laxalt

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I agree with what you've laid out here though I don't think this being true and Johnson being remarkably lucky are mutually exclusive (and the same seems true of Tester).

Fair enough, I didn’t mean to imply that they were mutually exclusive; they aren’t.

However, looking back, I’d argue that 2010 and 2016 (but esp. 2010) were still fairly impressive wins by Johnson. It is worth noting that Johnson was of course the lone Republican to beat a Democratic incumbent in an Obama state in 2010 (and in an Obama +14 state at that), something that is often forgotten because of the size of the wave in the House. Obama also won WI by more than NV/CO in 2008, yet the GOP lost both of those states in 2010. The WI race is also notable for being one of the very few which did not see a late shift toward Democrats in the final weeks of the 2010 campaign (or only a minor shift at best).

As far as 2016 is concerned, Feingold clearly had his share of vulnerabilities that made him a risky candidate in hindsight; however, many of those vulnerabilities were also not easy to piece together and communicate to the average voter (Johnson makes this look much easier than it actually is).  

This year, I think there certainly were a few Democrats who would have done slightly better than Barnes, but I’m not sure anyone could have won in this environment. I also think the dramatic geographic/internal transformation of the D base in WI does the party no favors — while their Milwaukee and esp. Madison-centered coalition is very reliable in GE elections, it is also prone to nominating candidates which are less appealing to a statewide electorate.

There's gonna be more polls on this race next week Johnson is in no better position than LAXALT is he is only up 5 pts and so is LAXALT if Evers wins, Johnson isn't outpolling Michels that much

Didn't you say that Perdue was gonna beat Warnock I think you did and Perdue LOST

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 52/48 Senate and we have a chance in OH and NC too, Shapiro and Evers are surging and Sisolak

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes is leading Horray Horray I told users stop Dooming on Barnes , he and Fetterman are LT Govs and Ryan is Rep, Vance, Oz and Budd aren't even office holders

I can see some splits in Gov and Sen races AZ, NV, GA and OH

Obviously, Rs win those small state Govs but Ds win the Sen races