Rate Montana for Senate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are leading in AZ, CO, KS and MT and have better prospects than ME and NC, due to fact ME2 can still be won by Collins.

Dont underestimate Bollier and Bullock and Dems shouldn't underestimate Collins and Tills have may have switched places in getting Dems a tied Senate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bullock and Cooney both win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Daines 52-46 Lean R

No, Dainea have not lead in a recent poll, last poll had Bullock plus 7

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Core 4 is AZ, CO, ME and MT. Then its KS with Kobach, GA and NC.  Dems cant give up on any of these seats, Dems need 51 seats, not 50, due to the power sharing agreement in 2000, when Dems had 50 and Rs had 51.

Dems are blasting in ads Daines, Tillis, Collins and Kobach

Last poll had Bullock plus 7

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We arent giving up on any of our races, where we have A candidates

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bullock wins, Daines has lost in every poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The fact Cooney is keeping the race tied doesn't bode well for Daines. Without Bullock, this was an R turnover as a Gov race. Now, that Bullock is in, the Ds are gonna win both races

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems don't need MT, but Ds would like to win AK, GA, IA, KS and MT to get to 51 seats to avoid a tied Senate. A tied Senate will still be bad, due to power sharing agreement in 2000, when Cheney broke the tie for Rs. The minority win still have equal powers with the majority to get nominations and Bill's to floor. Given Mcconnell's obstruction to UBI Benefits, it would be bad

Greenfield,  since being endorsed by Warren is tied with Ernst and Ossoff is leading Perdue and can win a runoff and Kobach maybe nominee for Rs in Senate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Senate will be far from.done, the Senate races in GA, and MA may have special elections. If Rs think that there will.be a tie in the Senate, it's not accurate, GA special can help determine control as well if there is no wave. If it's a wave, then it's a forgone conclusion,  of a D majority.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Daines +8
Trump +16

YEAH Sure, and the last poll had Bulock up by 7, have the Rs learned anything from the McSally race, yet, that red states like IA, AZ, MT and KS can become blue again. 2008 and 2012 we saw that shift in realignment during another Recession

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm really hoping it's Bullock, but I have a feeling Daines is going to narrowly survive somehow. Daines+3.

Not in a coronovirus environment,  you have to be bold, just like Ds were bold Iin 2006 and took Va away from Rs, the same thing can happen to Daines in 2020

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook is has put both IA and MT from solid R to lean R column after ME, NC, AZ and CO

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bollier and Bullock have had the most aggressive campaign fundraising just like Kelly and Hickenlooper,  Daines has not been seen in front of cameras like Bullock and many people dont know whom he is, only Rs. Rs can beat Coone and win the House race, but Bullock, Bollier, Kelly and Hickenlooper are far from done.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Daines +8

Both campaigns' internal polling shows Bullock up by single digits, you know. It's not a coincidence that Bullock declared for the race immediately after it was clear Biden and not Sanders had the nomination.

This election is in November and Donald Trump will win Montana by at least 15 points, you know.  

Evan Bayh was also leading the Indiana Senate polls for awhile too.  Bullock won’t be able to campaign behind his fake moderate shield when he’s having to run against  Donald Trump.

Ducey won by  the AZ Gov race by 10 points prts or more and Sinema won.  Split voting can happen.  Daines doesn't appear in front of cameras and is afraid to show himself in public, Bullock has been seen.

Same with Kris Kobach and Marshall, they dont get in front of cameras while Bollier has.

Bullock and Bollier are outraising Marshall, Kobach and Daines, Bullock and Bollier win win even if Trump carry MT and KS

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think it'll end up Daines +5-10. Of course anybody who doesn't believe it's a pure toss-up is laughed at or mocked. It's going to be very delicious to see if that actually ends up the case. I could be wrong and revise if we get closer to election day, but given history I don't think it makes sense for Daines to lose unless it's a blue tidal wave.

There's an obligatory "Bullock =/ Bredesen" comment but it's actually going to be interesting to see how much Bullock can overperform relative to Bredesen. Contra to the narrative spun after the election, Bredesen was a very strong candidate. He just couldn't pull it off in staunchly Republican Tennesee. Bullock will need to overperform Biden by a 15 point margin to match Bredesen's overperformance of Clinton (9 point margin to match the R house vote in 2018), which may mean outright winning.

Election Guy did you see the last polls on MT and KS senate race? MT, two polls had Bullock up by 3 pts and the other had Bullock up by 7 and two polls came out on KS Senate, Bollier up by 2. I know you are cherry picking Sabato and Cook ratings, but they predicted a Hilary slide last tims.

It wont be a Biden slide this time either but enough for MT and KS to flip

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MT likes ticket-splitting but still prefers Republicans, which is why Trump and Daines won by double digits, compared to Tester and Bullock's 3-4 point wins in the state.

Daines won in 2014 in a R wave year and against a flawed incumbent Walsh, you cant compare Bullick to Walsh.

Anyway, MT and KS are the backup option to NC and ME, Collins can win ME 2 and may sit in the middle of a D 51/49 Senate..

As I said earlier Bollier is a Dr and Bullock have both had media exposure, and Kobach, Marshall and Daines have been absent.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MT likes ticket-splitting but still prefers Republicans, which is why Trump and Daines won by double digits, compared to Tester and Bullock's 3-4 point wins in the state.

Daines won in 2014 in a R wave year and against a flawed incumbent Walsh, you cant compare Bullick to Walsh.

Anyway, MT and KS are the backup option to NC and ME, Collins can win ME 2 and may sit in the middle of a D 51/49 Senate..

As I said earlier Bollier is a Dr and Bullock have both had media exposure, and Kobach, Marshall and Daines have been absent.

The thing about Kansas is that Trump is probably gonna win it by at least 15 points and will likely win it by more than that. Can Boiler really run more than 16 points ahead of Biden in the state?

Chuck Todd meet the Press, not Sabato Crystal Ball or Cook has classified: AZ, CO, KS, MT and NC as tossups.  Until we can get some sound polling from ME, I am classifying it as Lean R and GA as Lean R due to runoffs. If Sununu and Phil Scott can will in a neutral yr  where Ds take the WH, Collins can to.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Again, the three females Collins can hang onto ME2 and Ernst hanging into IA 4 and SMC are in better position than in AZ, CO, GA, KS, MT and NC, due to fact they are Barry Goldwater conservatives, and Collins supported Planned Parenthood, Ernst support Social Security Reform, whom will vote for Biden's programs.

Last two polls had Bullick D+3 and D+7 and Bollier +2 and Cunningham D+9 and D+2

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Marsha Blackburn, as well as Portman and Thommy Thompson werent afraid to show themselves in front of the media, they are always in front of cameras.

There is a reason why Bollier is leading by 2 in Red Kansas and Bullock is leading by 3 to 7 points against Daines, I have only saw Daines 1 time in front of cameras,  during impeachment

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, Daines doesnt appear on camera, McConnell is running for reelection in MT, TX and KY

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs have to be worried even in Red state KS, none of their candidates are at 50%. Even McConnell, Graham and Daines are well below 50%, that fits in with Trump's approvals at 44%