If Biden wins, can Dems still have a net gain in Senate seats in 2022?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH should Tim Ryan run, yea Portman can lose
NC open
Wi open

Net gain of 3

PA if Toomey retires or if we get a got candidate

NH, NV and IL will be competetive

Kelly is safe, Dems should pick up open seat AZ Gov and Kelly wins reelection

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I could see a scenario where Dems lose the House but gain seats in the Senate.

Reapportionment and Dems net gain of Govs in 2018 has insulated Dems from loss of the House after 2020

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I could see a scenario where Dems lose the House but gain seats in the Senate.


Really, the 2022 Senate map duplicates the 2022 Gov races and all our inc Senates and inc Govs will get reelected with the exception of Kelly from KS Gov defeated and AZ Kelly for Sen winning and pickup of AZ Gov race . This insulates the House and reappointment this time favors the House

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems should get a net gain of two.

Lean D
Nevada:  C. Cortez Masto (D)
New Hampshire:  Maggie Hassan (D)
Pennsylvania:  Pat Toomey (R) --> Connor Lamb (D)
Arizona:  Mark Kelly (D)
North Carolina:  Richard Burr (R) --> Josh Stein (D)
Georgia:  Raphael Warnock (D)

Lean R
Wisconsin:  Ron Johnson (R)
Florida:  Marco Rubio (R)
Ohio:  Rob Portman (R)
Iowa:  Chuck Grassley (R) --> (R)

Johnson and Burr are retiring

Tilt D IL, AZ, CO, NV, NH, WI
Tossup NC and PA
Tilt R FL, GA, OH, IA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly isnt losing and WI would go D before NC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

55/45 Senate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Really the Iowa thing was just wishful thinking, but why would Wisconsin be favorable to Republicans? It’s an open seat in a pure tossup state, you can’t get more tossup than that. Maybe having Biden in office tilts it slightly R, but I’d put it in a similar position to the 2018 Florida race.

• Republican-trending state which will probably have a R+2 PVI after 2020 (I don’t think calling WI a "pure Tossup" is fair, especially in a midterm under a Democratic president)
• Competent Republican state party
• Fairly high Republican floor
• State doesn’t tend to be kind to the party holding the White House
• State where Democrats are particularly dependent on base turnout (which could be slightly depressed in a Biden midterm, certainly more so than in 2018)
• The Republican bench isn’t worse than the Democratic bench (arguably it’s better, but that’s debatable)

Unless Republicans nominate an awful candidate (which is possible but not particularly likely—WI isn’t AL), I’m rating this Lean R, not Tossup. Apparently this is a "bold" prediction, but by the time election day rolls around, Evers will probably be in a worse position than the Republican candidate for Senate. People really underestimate how wildly the pendulum can swing in two years, and WI isn’t even as Democratic as WV/OH/MT are Republican (all of which the Democrats held in 2018 even though there was no war or recession dragging down the incumbent's approval numbers). 2022 doesn’t need to be as ugly for Democrats as 2006/2010/2014/2018 were for the incumbent's partey for WI to be Lean R.

The only person that would run a successful campaign in WI is Scott Walker, this is why Johnson is retiring, he doesnt want to raise money. This is why Biden is gonna pass campaign finance reform, so that Walker and Toomey can be defeated. 55/45 Senate, with Dems getting 2 extra Seats from DC statehood

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This Thread here is sooo hilarious! Nothing will get passed in 2021/22 if Biden wins. Trump will threaten every GOP Senator that their head will be on a pike if they pass Democratic Legislation under Biden.

Every competitive Senate Seat will be at least Lean R in 2022 if Biden wins the Presidency in 2020.

We dont even have candidates for WI and PA. Trump.has pending charges against him in Federal CRT like Bill Cosby when he leaves office

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No the Senate map is the same as Gov map, Dems will win WI, PA and keep AZ, as Dems will pick up AZ Gov race

Senate map 2022

Gov map, 2022 replicate Senate map, Evers and Sisolak will be in tough races. Fetterman will win PA Gov

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know I have said some contradictory things, but I have I have never started threads and I have to point this out: Progressive moderate said AK Senate race, which is likely R, is gonna be competetive in 2020, and AL Gross will win; consequently, now he gives a map that shows every competetive seat going R, no.