2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Scottholes 2.0]

Wow, if Trump wins I hope the polling industry loses its credibility!

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Wisconsin is looking scary!

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Can Biden win Arizona without winning Wisconsin?

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That Wisconsin margin is narrowing rapidly. Can’t help but feel that’s good for Biden.

I hope you're right!

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Wisconsin isn't looking good for Biden.

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Wisconsin isn't looking good for Biden.

Isn't the issue in Wisconsin a lack of count from Milwaukee and Madison?

Oh, ok. Thanks for the info!

[Scottholes 2.0]

I don't see how Biden can be very confident about winning Wisconsin. What is Biden's path in WI now that Madison (Dane County) is mostly in?

[Scottholes 2.0]

So how are we currently feeling about:

MI?

WI?

PA?

MI: At this point Trump has surpassed or nearly surpassed his total 2016 votes in a few traditionally Republican counties (eg. Ottawa) and also in Flint. His margin in key counties like Macomb is substantial but he's farther from hitting his 2016 vote totals. Typically the Democratic votes in Detroit come late in Michigan even without mail ins, but on the other hand Michigan Republicans have a strong mail in vote operation and I doubt they'll be getting blown out like they will be in Pennsylvania. One bright spot for Biden is that he won back Leelaunau and has 1,000 more voters than Hillary did with 90% reporting. Probably the hardest state to call right now but it has the most for Biden to be happy about outside of the suburbs. Tilt Biden I guess?

WI: Everything I'm seeing suggests Trump will win. He's improving his vote totals in key southwestern counties that Biden was supposed to have won back and the Wisconsin suburbs are famously inflexible to the usual trends. In Lafayette Trump has pulled 1000 brand new voters straight out of his ass when they were supposed to be defecting in droves to Biden. The only silver lining for Biden is that he's somehow doing even better in Madison, but Madison alone ain't gonna cut it. Unless Biden pulls out crazy numbers from Milwaukee or its surrounding suburbs or unless it turns out the maps are lying and actually there are thousands of mail ins for those key southwestern states and turnout is almost double 2016 somehow I don't see a path for Biden and frankly I want to be proven wrong. Likely Trump.

PA: There are similarly bad signs for Biden in Trump's total votes in counties like Erie, but at least Biden can rest safe knowing hundreds of thousands of votes will arrive near the end of the count in his favour and his margins/turnout in the Philly suburbs will probably be substantial. The Allegheny turnout and margin will matter a ton here and I think will be decisive: if Trump does significantly worse here than his 2016 margin on the back of the suburbs (40%) then Biden has the edge but if Trump even manages to stem the bleeding to at least 35%ish then he'll be in a good position to win.

You really see this as likely Trump?  Seems like Trump isn't improving enough to offset Dane/Milwaukee.  

I guess I feel more optimistic about WI. Biden received 45k more voted than HRC in Dane. This is not counting the absentee votes. Considering Dane led the state in early votes, doesn't this look pretty good for Biden? Who knows how many more Democratic votes are left in Dane!

[Scottholes 2.0]

Can someone explain to me why everyone's being doomer on Biden still? Not much of Milwaukee is in, and I think a lot of Detroit is still out. This is underwhelming and shameful but probably still a win for Biden

I was a doomer until I analyzed WI results more. Biden is behind only 102k votes -- and Milwaukee is not in yet. I now think WI is going to Biden.

[Scottholes 2.0]

https://twitter.com/PeterSweden7/status/1323868120453423105?s=20

Call the damn state for him already.

It is 75%...and the rest are largely mail-ins and Milwaukee. Shut up.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Let's go, Wisconsin!!

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https://<blockquote class=twitter-tweet><p lang=en dir=ltr>Green Bay...

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https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1323958900060790784?s=20

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Biden's margin just increase 0.2% in Wisconsin! Yes! He's got this!

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So where did the condescending doomers go with their no data just saying "shut and believe me"? Obviously votes still to count, Trump can still win but really looking good for Biden.

Wisconsin is making me proud this morning, even if the Biden winning margin is narrower than expected!

[Scottholes 2.0]

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!  https://twitter.com/benwikler/status/1323963606992605184?s=20

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Wisconsin is firmly in Biden territory now! Wis Dems agree with me!

https://twitter.com/WBAY/status/1323965680413249536?s=20

Biden will definitely take Michigan and Pennsylvania if he can carry Wisconsin. I'm proud to be a cheesehead right now! Now I'm going to work with a smile on my face!

[Scottholes 2.0]

Not to turn this thread into a re-litigation of the polls, but I think a big part of it is that it's harder to reach people these days and get a representative sample.

Republicans vote on white identity politics, and will never express this sentiment to a stranger over the phone.

Yup!

[Scottholes 2.0]

WI is headed for recount territory. A winner may not be declared anytime soon.

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WI is headed for recount territory. A winner may not be declared anytime soon.

Why would 25K+ votes be considered recount territory?

Because of WI state law. A candidate can request a recount only if they lost by 1 percentage point or less in an election with at least 4,000 votes total.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Also, Democrats need to back off the police. They are humans just like everyone else. They are not to blame for every black person's problem. Hold them accountable, threatening them is not working. A lot of cops voted Trump overwhelmingly.

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As a black person, I actually find your post to be offensive and untrue. Call me an SJW, but you'll never know what it's like to be black. Just. Stop. Biden is winning, so clearly this "SJW nonsense" must be working.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Also, Democrats need to back off the police. They are humans just like everyone else. They are not to blame for every black person's problem. Hold them accountable, threatening them is not working. A lot of cops voted Trump overwhelmingly.

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As a black person, I actually find your post to be offensive and untrue. Call me an SJW, but you'll never know what it's like to be black. Just. Stop. Biden is winning, so clearly this "SJW nonsense" must be working.

I agree with this sentiment.  Too many white people are quick with this kind of senseless retort.  I'm white, and I'm gay.  Straight people will never know what it's like to be in my shoes, and that shows all too often.

Thank you!

[Scottholes 2.0]

My biggest concern right now is PA.

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I really hope John James doesn't win the MI Senate Race.

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If Biden wins Georgia, then that's going to be a HUGE accomplishment. But sadly, Trump might get his way and steal this election via the courts. He always gets his way.