2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3 (user search)
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  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3  (Read 131207 times)
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« on: September 18, 2018, 08:16:32 AM »
I can’t buy Trump being at 47/47 in CA-39 at all.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2018, 05:41:38 AM »

LOL McLaughlin.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2018, 10:54:17 AM »
Quote from: New York Dude on September 19, 2018, 10:53:04 AM
NJ-02
Stockton University
535 Likely Voters

Jeff Van Drew (D) 55
Seth Grossman (R) 32

Safe D.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2018, 08:40:27 AM »

Seems in line with Lean R.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2018, 07:53:55 PM »
Since I haven't seen this one posted yet

NY-01 (Global Strategy Group on behalf of Taking Action Suffolk County (D SuperPAC):

Lee Zeldin (R-inc) 47
Perry Gershon (D) 44

https://www.newsday.com/opinion/lights-out-1.21175049
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2018, 01:37:56 PM »
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2018, 06:10:40 PM »


I'd take this with a grain of salt. If this is remotely near reality (I don't think it is), Dems would be having a titanic sized wave obviously.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2018, 12:32:12 AM »

Lmao @ Chabot being at 46 in a GOP internal.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2018, 01:33:10 PM »

Why do they have a Safe D race like NV-03 as a "key House race"?
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2018, 03:46:16 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on September 24, 2018, 03:44:29 PM
Monmouth has a VA-07 poll coming out tomorrow btw.

I’m going to guess Brat +5
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #10 on: September 24, 2018, 04:21:47 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on September 24, 2018, 03:49:22 PM

I'm not sure. Stewart could really drag him down.

It's a very conservative district still though. It was 11 points to the right of the state in 2016, and 12 points to the right of the state in VA-Gov.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2018, 11:14:03 AM »
Quote from: psychprofessor on September 25, 2018, 11:03:48 AM

MonmouthPoll
‏ @MonmouthPoll
22m22 minutes ago

VIRGINIA CD07 POLL: US House election
All potential voters:
  
@SpanbergerVA07 (D) 47
@DaveBratVA7th (R) 42
  
Likely voters:
Standard model - Spanberger 47 / Brat 47
Dem-surge model - Spanberger 48 / Brat 45
    
#VA07 #Midterms2018

Shocked
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #12 on: September 25, 2018, 09:33:01 PM »

Honestly, that's better than I expected.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #13 on: September 25, 2018, 10:43:27 PM »
Quote from: Cruz Will Win 👁 on September 25, 2018, 10:34:10 PM
Quote from: Pope Michael Bolton on September 25, 2018, 09:55:01 PM
We have inexplicably failed to run even a B-list candidate against Valadao thus far.

It is because no Democrats participate in the political process enough to actually vote in CA-21, much less run for office.

It’s sad because this is true. There’s British parliament constituencies that had a higher total vote count in 2017 than CA-21 did in 2014. British parliament constituencies are also way smaller in population than American CDs, keep in mind.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #14 on: September 26, 2018, 08:38:17 AM »


Hopefully, Flawless Beautiful Campa-Najjar is ahead. I won’t count on it though. I’m thinking Hunter by 5.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #15 on: September 26, 2018, 02:33:26 PM »
DE-AL (University of Delaware):

Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-inc) 58
Scott Walker (R, not related to that Scott Walker) 28

https://www.cpc.udel.edu/content-sub-site/Documents/CPC%20poll%209-25-18%20FINAL%20RELEASE.pdf
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #16 on: September 26, 2018, 04:31:00 PM »
Quote from: Cruz Will Win 👁 on September 26, 2018, 04:26:54 PM
Quote from: Virginiá on September 26, 2018, 04:10:39 PM
How is it possible for Pew's poll to have Democrats up 58 - 39 with white college grads, but then only 57 - 38 with college graduates of all races? Non-white college grads are significantly more Democratic than white college grads, even if they are slightly less Democratic than non-white non-college voters.

Shouldn't the total college grads (white/non-white) be > white college grad %?

White college grads also includes postgrads, whereas the regular college grad excludes postgrads (that is another category in that crosstab).

That would explain it. Postgrads are quite a Democratic group, and have been for a while. Does anyone know why postgrads have always been significantly more Democratic than "normal" college educated folks (like those with bachelor degrees)?
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #17 on: September 28, 2018, 06:34:51 PM »
MI-06 (Public Opinion Strategies/Bishop internal):

Mike Bishop (R-inc) 45
Elissa Slotkin (D) 43

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hCVvE7VowJEon60CBTgy0RBlKfmn2tfd/view

Does he seriously think a poll showing him only up 2 and at 45% in a Romney-Trump district is a great showing? LMAO.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2018, 11:25:44 AM »
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbedk on September 29, 2018, 10:37:28 AM
Quote from: IceSpear on September 28, 2018, 06:42:52 PM
Quote from: ON Progressive on September 28, 2018, 06:34:51 PM
MI-06 (Public Opinion Strategies/Bishop internal):

Mike Bishop (R-inc) 45
Elissa Slotkin (D) 43

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hCVvE7VowJEon60CBTgy0RBlKfmn2tfd/view

Does he seriously think a poll showing him only up 2 and at 45% in a Romney-Trump district is a great showing? LMAO.

Good ol POS.

I guess it's to counter the "Bishop is DOA because he got triaged" takes. Which it does an astoundingly poor job at doing. It'll be interesting to see what the Siena poll shows.

Of course, Atlas will have no problem dismissing this poll because it's not Donna Shalala's opponent releasing it.
Donna Shalala's opponent's poll showed her leading 51-42. You're comparing apples to oranges.


That was a McLaughlin poll though. You really shouldn’t take a McLqughlin poll seriously.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #19 on: September 30, 2018, 02:05:44 PM »


LOL, why would you release this?
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #20 on: October 01, 2018, 04:25:05 PM »
Yet another episode of "Please Don't Triage Me!", this time featuring CO-06 as the desperate incumbent Mike Coffman releases this internal: https://localtvkdvr.files.wordpress.com/2018/10/coffmanpolling.pdf

CO-06 (Tarrance Group, Coffman internal):
Jason Crow (D) 46
Mike Coffman (R-inc) 45
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #21 on: October 01, 2018, 09:28:35 PM »
We got a dump of Oklahoma polls from Sooner Poll, covering the 3rd, 4th, and 5th CDs.

http://www.newson6.com/story/39208380/exclusive-news9-poll-oklahomas-congressional-incumbents-drawing-strong-support

OK-03:
Frank Lucas (R-inc) 54
Frankie Robbins (D) 24

OK-04:
Tom Cole (R-inc) 58
Mary Brannon (D) 25

OK-05:
Steve Russell (R-inc) 47
Kendra Horn (D) 37
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #22 on: October 01, 2018, 11:12:08 PM »
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #23 on: October 02, 2018, 06:24:37 AM »
Wexton +6 standard, +4 low turnout, +9 surge. Wexton is also at 50+ in all of these.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_va_100218/
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #24 on: October 02, 2018, 03:17:25 PM »
Quote from: Interlocutor on October 02, 2018, 02:44:54 PM
Walters-internal, Public Opinion Strategies:


Among voters "who have definitely made a decision"
Mimi Walters:  37%
Katie Porter:   36%

Among "informed voters"
Mimi Walters:  44%
Katie Porter:   39%

400 likely voters, September 24-27

https://www.mimiwalters.com/walters-leads-in-new-ca-45-poll/

LOL. If even the "informed voters" (read: push poll) part can't get her above 45%, she is absolutely toast.
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