GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[Politician]

Prediction: Kemp will appoint Geoff Duncan.

[Politician]

Atlas seems to have this weird obsession with GA being a safe R state and VA, IA and OH being quintessential swing states

Well, as soon as inevitable Democratic nominee Elizabeth Warren starts talking about kitchen table issues, GA/IA/VA/TX/ME will instantaneously trend back to the other party and vote like they did in 2012 (FL like 2004 tho) and everyone and their mother will be happy again.

As opposed to TX/KS/UT/ME/RI flipping simultaneously because of WWC trends and suburban trends?

[Politician]

You're both wrong. Idaho AND Nebraska will flip before Georgia or Maine.

[Politician]

DNS registrations suggest McBath may enter race:
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1169655365090205696

[Politician]

Bad decision for McBath if true. She's WAY more likely to win re-election to GA-06 than to win statewide in an open senate seat. Also increases Republican odds in the 6th.

I wouldn't go that far. GA-06 fits the profile of a district that will move towards the Democrats next year. If the Senate/Presidential races are in any way competitive in Georgia next year, the Democratic nominees should provide sufficient coattails for the GA-06 Dem.

At the very least, McBath is definitely one of the better recruits for this race. She could probably come the closest to replicating the Abrams coalition, and her gun control message is also one that could resonate with a lot of voters - both African-Americans as well as some whites in the Atlanta metro. Also, I think if she were to enter other prospective Democrats would not run in deference to her - this is important because the Democrats would need to consolidate around one candidate if they want any chance to win the special on election night.

Yeah, but this message won't resonate outside of the Atlanta metro area and she will get absolutely trounced in small towns

She doesn't need those voters. They are already very conservative and the outstate region is only making up a smaller share of Georgia's electorate over time.

Abrams also got trounced in those areas and still managed to lose by only 1%.

She lost a winnable race by 1.4 despite a D+8 year. The performance of Carter in 2014 was far more impressive when you take into consideration the fact that 2014 was a horrible year for dems

Perhaps both election results were because of how GA is a notoriously inelastic state rather than Abrams being a bad candidate?

As I've said before, 2018 was a abnormally weak wave for Democrats at the gubernatorial and state legislative levels, to say nothing of the Senate. One or more of Abrams, Gillum, Cordray, or Hubbell should have won. None of them did. The only true triumphs Democrats had last year at the statewide level were defeating Scott Walker in Wisconsin and beating Kris Kobach in Kansas.

Gotta love that level of projection.

[Politician]

Bad decision for McBath if true. She's WAY more likely to win re-election to GA-06 than to win statewide in an open senate seat. Also increases Republican odds in the 6th.

No it doesn't. Abrams also won GA-06 with an electorate that was less Democratic than 2016. The white voters in that district are done with the GOP. 

In the meantime, McBath is amazing at working suburban audiences, and black turnout will be huge with her on the ticket. She is an exceptional speaker with a powerful personal story. She will also raise a sh-t ton of money. She is the best alternative to Abrams. Meanwhile Tomlinson can work on getting out that South GA vote. And we will all be curbing voter suppression to the best of our abilities.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

I'm all in for Tomlinson/McBath 2020.

lol. Of course, any Democratic incumbent giving up their seat doesn't change anything, but all the Republicans retiring in Texas and elsewhere makes those seats more competitive. But I realize I'm talking to people who view any Republican improvement from 2018 as impossible, so what do I expect.

I mean, there are some Atlas R's who say Woodall, Hurd, Marchant, etc. retiring has little impact on those seats' competitiveness. But saying McBath or someone like that retiring would have no impact on the seat's rating is just hackish.

[Politician]

SENATOR JIMMY CARTER