Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread (user search)
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  Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Rate the 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election
#1
Safe D
 
#2
Likely D
 
#3
Lean D
 
#4
Tossup/tilt D
 
#5
Tossup/tilt R
 
#6
Lean R
 
#7
Likely R
 
#8
Safe R
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 262

Author Topic: Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread  (Read 48186 times)
E-Dawg
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Posts: 562
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« on: November 07, 2023, 04:49:15 PM »

Does turnout look bad for Cameron because he wasn't an inspiring candidate, the election itsself is not seen as important or these people are kind of resigned to Beshear, who hasn't enflamed much passion against him? I guess a combination of all of these. (However, not getting ahead of myself here, the election isn't over and Beshear isn't guaranteed to win yet).

It probably actually is in large part because a nontrivial number of rural Kentucky whites who otherwise would vote Republican can't bring themselves to turn out for a black man.
I certainly agree that there is plenty of unfortunate racism in rural white America, but I've never really seen any evidence of that racism manifesting in dislike of African American Republican candidates. This type of modern-day racism generally consists of dislike/fear of Black culture and dislike of how liberal leaning they are generally are politically. These same types of generally racist people often have no problem at all befriending black people whom they individually trust (which is why having a black friend is not considered good proof of not being racist). Likewise, from what I've seen these people also have no issue with Black Republican candidates, as those candidates break with the majority political views of the black community and generally appeal to conservative whites in their messaging. African American Republicans are viewed by plenty of generally racist whites as "the good ones." This is why Black Republicans such as Tim Scott have had no issues being elected in the South. If anything, these voters probably like electing Black Republicans since it helps them rebut claims of being racist.
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E-Dawg
Guy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 562
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2023, 06:38:44 PM »

Does turnout look bad for Cameron because he wasn't an inspiring candidate, the election itsself is not seen as important or these people are kind of resigned to Beshear, who hasn't enflamed much passion against him? I guess a combination of all of these. (However, not getting ahead of myself here, the election isn't over and Beshear isn't guaranteed to win yet).

It probably actually is in large part because a nontrivial number of rural Kentucky whites who otherwise would vote Republican can't bring themselves to turn out for a black man.
Still?!

Yeah, racism ain't over yet. Certainly not in Eastern Kentucky.

Or in North Georgia, either.  I think in some cases it's unconscious racism; while some people wouldn't intentionally discriminate, they may get an uncomfortable "vibe" about a black candidate when it comes time to choose.  (For others, of course, it's more conscious and deliberate.)

No doubt.

But in Eastern Kentucky specifically, some of those counties were giving John Kerry Kim Jong-un style margins then suddenly flipped to voting for McCain four years later. Hard to imagine why...
The Appalachian voters swinging GOP due to racism theory made some level of sense in the aftermath of the 2008/2012 elections with their sharp swings against Obama. But it makes less sense in 2016/2020, in which two white Democratic nominees (Clinton/Biden) performed far worse in these areas than Obama did.
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E-Dawg
Guy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 562
United States


« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2023, 03:15:14 PM »

Quote
Daniel Cameron lost because he couldn’t alleviate the stench of Mitch McConnell. I told him early that’s a big burden to overcome. McConnell and Romney are Kryptonite for Republican Candidates. I moved him up 25 Points, but the McConnell relationship was “too much to bear.” Tate Reeves, on the other hand, surged to a win for Governor in Mississippi after my involvement. Congratulations to Tate!

^ Trump
Absolutely COPE from Trump here. This doesn't even make any sense, as Mitch McConnell himself easily wins Kentucky every time he's up for re-election.
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