NY: Convicted Felon Donald Trump!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yeah, he TOTALLY cared about Melania's feelings.

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1787864173356917152

Republicans, it's not too late. You can still walk away from this vile jackwagon. You can still refuse to nominate him, or bail on the GOP if they do nominate him. But if you stand with him past the RNC and into the election, you're damning yourselves, just as thoroughly as you're trying to damn the country.

This just makes them support him more.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Rikers Island jail ‘ready’ to receive Donald Trump, says Eric Adams
New York City mayor makes comment as ex-president could face temporary incarceration if he again violates gag order

The New York City mayor, Eric Adams, said the city’s notorious Rikers Island jail and its department of corrections were “ready” to receive Donald Trump, should the former US president and presumptive Republican presidential nominee make history and become the first former White House occupant ever put behind bars.

“They’re professionals,” Adams told reporters on Tuesday. “They’ll be ready.”

Trump is already the first former president ever criminally charged, facing 88 criminal charges.

But he could face temporary incarceration before any conviction, if he again violates a gag order in his New York trial on 34 charges concerning hush-money payments made as a form of election interference.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/07/trump-rikers-jail-eric-adams

He'll fit in well with the Skinhead gangs, maybe getting a percentage of the black and Latino gang members to follow him too, more so than most white inmates.

If he's locked up with the white-collar criminals, he might get his legs broken.

[Progressive Pessimist]

What is the time table on when Trump might go to jail if convicted? I would assume there's an appeals process. Really don't think he would have much of a chance in that case, the Feds can't tell NY who they can put in jail and swing voters aren't going to want someone being president from jail. He'd struggle to get even 45% (which is still way too high but would keep him from winning)

Is it clear that the prosecutors are even seeking a prison sentence in this case?

I don't know, but if he just gets probation after all this, it will be pretty anticlimactic.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Hopefully at least some community service!

I guess it could be rich seeing Trump pick up garbage along the Westside highway.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm probably going to jinx it, but here it goes: is it me? Or is this trial going unusually well for the prosecution?

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm probably going to jinx it, but here it goes: is it me? Or is this trial going unusually well for the prosecution?

It seems so to me too, but remember that we're only seeing the prosecution's case so far.  The defense will have their own witnesses to call.

That's right. I think the defense's case is getting increasingly more difficult to prove though, just by how the prosecution has been so far and how much of the defense is about Trump's ego more than anything.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Defense isn't required to do anything, but if they want to win they need to sow reasonable doubt if the prosecution has proven their case beyond a reasonable doubt.

That's what I meant.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It won't take a whole day to explain why Trump's actions violated the law. Establishing what Trump did takes way more time, how those actions were illegal could probably be summed up in about 10 minutes.

Michael Cohen's testimony will probably make this clear. After all, he actually went to prison on charges related to this incident.

[Progressive Pessimist]

We've seen that Trump doesn't learn lessons from mild punishments. He needs to be at least threatened with prison time, I think it worked for the gag order...so far.

Anyway, Americans in polls suggested that a Trump conviction alone would be enough for them to move to Biden. I'm holding them to that, other than the 46-47% of the country that is too far-gone, of course.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Maggie Haberman of the NYT got outed as a Trump lackey in court by Cohen. Cohen basically said (with text messages to prove it) that Haberman wrote whatever Trump and Cohen told her to write

No s***, but it's good to have some confirmation.

The media really did fail us in 2016, and are still continuing to do so.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm probably going to jinx it, but here it goes: is it me? Or is this trial going unusually well for the prosecution?

Sorry all. I did jinx it.

Acquittal or hung jury is of course going to happen. Trump probably gets re-elected, and everything continues to suck.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm probably going to jinx it, but here it goes: is it me? Or is this trial going unusually well for the prosecution?

Sorry all. I did jinx it.

Acquittal or hung jury is of course going to happen. Trump probably gets re-elected, and everything continues to suck.

I think you are overreacting.

I hope so, but this isnlt the development the prosecution needed in the home stretch.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm probably going to jinx it, but here it goes: is it me? Or is this trial going unusually well for the prosecution?

Sorry all. I did jinx it.

Acquittal or hung jury is of course going to happen. Trump probably gets re-elected, and everything continues to suck.

What the hell, man?

Obviously this isn't a slam dunk but this trial very much leans towards the prosecution.

Not a slam dunk might as well mean they lost the case, these days.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The only direct evidence that Trump knew about the scheme to falsify the business records is Cohen's testimony. So if they can convince jurors that his testimony can't be trusted that might given them reasonable doubt as to Trump's knowledge of the scheme. And they definitely showed that he has lied about a lot of things in the past. Not saying it's enough to doubt his testimony (not like we weren't expecting it), or to conclude there isn't enough other circumstantial evidence that Trump knew they were falsified, but it's the biggest glove they've laid on the prosecution's case so far.

The thing is, even if Cohen is slimey and has lied about some things, the point at the end of the day is - you don't need to believe Cohen 100% in everything he says, you just have to believe Cohen when he talks about the Trump records part of it. And given the other circumstantial evidence that supports Cohens claims, that at least backs up Cohens claims about that situation, outside of whether Cohen is telling the truth about other things.

Right, all kinds of organized crime convictions occur where the key witnesses are deeply immoral and dishonest people. What matters is if his testimony fits the outline of facts which it does. "This person has lied before" is not the big own they think it is, I mean he was Trump's lawyer so no **** what do you expect?

Even red avs are buying into Republicans bad faith muddying of facts here because they've been so persistent about it.

We've become accustomed to disappointment and expecting the worst out of our legal system, and fellow citizens.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't even care about the outcome anymore, so long as it isn't an acquittal. That would be a disaster. A hung jury is basically a wash, and a conviction will have to remain to be seen over whether it will have any impact on this teflon cretin.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't think the gravity of the hypothetical phrase "convicted felon Donald Trump" is being appreciated here. It doesn't necessarily matter what these charges are, since the people most likely to be swayed by big, broad headlines aren't going to follow the nuance anyway. The ads write themselves, the debate would be a sh**tshow (moreso), and that's not to mention any possible sentencing.

It would be a big deal, and I'm tired of people saying it wouldn't even make a dent.

It definitely would give Biden and Democrats an opening to finally openly talk about it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't think the gravity of the hypothetical phrase "convicted felon Donald Trump" is being appreciated here. It doesn't necessarily matter what these charges are, since the people most likely to be swayed by big, broad headlines aren't going to follow the nuance anyway. The ads write themselves, the debate would be a sh**tshow (moreso), and that's not to mention any possible sentencing.

It would be a big deal, and I'm tired of people saying it wouldn't even make a dent.

It definitely would give Biden and Democrats an opening to finally openly talk about it.

"Convicted felon Donald Trump" may honestly risk losing him more votes than J6, to the extent that his base obviously will never falter, but swing voters may. Aside from Biden campaign ads being guaranteed to make a big deal out of "convicted felon Donald Trump," every news organization would get to call him "convicted felon Donald Trump" too. That Nikki Haley still consistently wins ~20% of the vote in the GOP presidential primaries despite dropping out months ago just goes to show that at least some conservatives are already beyond over his bullsh*t. Now imagine independents. It's not murder on Fifth Avenue, but "Guilty" may just be the black stain his campaign can't stop from swaying middle-ground voters to Biden.

Let's hope. There is no guarantee of that these days.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/abc/status/1793684610255089912https://twitter.com/astoraaron/status/1793605128546898199

Come on, New York jury! Help save the country!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Bragg has no case, dismiss it. I hate to defend Trump but I am with him in this case.

On what grounds? No one is really disputing the facts of the case, even on Fox News all they ever say it that it just wouldn't be appropriate to convict Trump on this. They never lay out any case for him being innocent, or for it being too ambiguous to convict. It all boils down to "millions of Americans love Trump so therefore he shouldn't be found guilty."

I think if he did it beyond reasonable doubt (and again, no is bothering to try to convince me otherwise), he should be found guilty no matter how many people like him. Being popular shouldn't make someone above the law.

And millions more Americans hate him. The millions he has never won the popular vote with.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Any predictions for the outcome so far? I have a feeling we're getting a hung jury.

Same here.

Conviction on all felony counts as charged confirmed

Where?

Because SnowLabrador made a prediction. Again, keep letting him. He's doing us all a massive service.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Any predictions for the outcome so far? I have a feeling we're getting a hung jury.

Same here.

Conviction on all felony counts as charged confirmed

Where?

Because SnowLabrador made a prediction. Again, keep letting him. He's doing us all a massive service.

Trump has incredible luck. I am pessimistic that he will be convicted on felony charges, myself. He has managed to scrape by things that would've ended the careers of 99% of other politicians for nearly a decade. I too can honestly see a hung jury, or a conviction on misdemeanor offenses. I am skeptical he will be convicted of felonious offences purely because he is just that damn lucky.

He wasn't lucky in 2020.

He kind of was. He should have lost by as much as polls suggested he would.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Any predictions for the outcome so far? I have a feeling we're getting a hung jury.

Same here.

Conviction on all felony counts as charged confirmed

Where?

Because SnowLabrador made a prediction. Again, keep letting him. He's doing us all a massive service.

Trump has incredible luck. I am pessimistic that he will be convicted on felony charges, myself. He has managed to scrape by things that would've ended the careers of 99% of other politicians for nearly a decade. I too can honestly see a hung jury, or a conviction on misdemeanor offenses. I am skeptical he will be convicted of felonious offences purely because he is just that damn lucky.

He wasn't lucky in 2020.

He kind of was. He should have lost by as much as polls suggested he would.

Somehow I don't think he himself would see it that way.

He would definitely blame luck more than his own actions for sure.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm going to put my chips on acquittal. Partly because my optimism in recent years seems to have finally stopped translating to reality. So, maybe I won't jinx it by going back to expecting the worst, and the opposite will manifest.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden has stayed silent on Trump’s trial. The verdict will change that.
Biden will speak at some point after the verdict, whether it be a conviction, acquittal or hung jury.

Joe Biden plans to break his vow of silence and publicly address the criminal trials Donald Trump is facing when a verdict is reached, four people familiar with internal deliberations told POLITICO.

Biden intends to initially address the verdict in a White House setting — not a campaign one — to show his statement isn’t political, according to the people, who were granted anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

If the jury convicts Trump, Biden’s team will then argue that the result shows Trump is ill-suited for office and that it demonstrates the extremes to which the former president would go to win again. The campaign’s social media team is considering leveraging the line of attack further, with discussions underway about referring to the ex-president online as “Convicted Felon Donald Trump.”

His team is also preparing for a barrage of Republican and Trump attacks if the former president’s acquitted or if there’s a hung jury.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/24/biden-trump-trial-verdict-00159981

That's the real benefit of the verdict, especially if it's a conviction, Biden and other Democrats can finally not have their arms tied behind their back about this.

[Progressive Pessimist]

What exactly should Biden even say in the case of an acquittal or hung jury? That part confuses me unless he tries to pull a Harris post-Rittenhouse trial and attack the justice system.

With any outcome, Biden should say something like "as an American, I respect the rule of law in this country.  The justice system has operated as it was intended, and the jury has spoken."

This is the obvious, considerate, safe answer, especially if we don't get a conviction.

In the event we do, I want Biden do basically go full "lock him up!" for the rest of the campaign season.