Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm late to the party in commenting on the Mon-Dixon poll, but I sure hope that holds up. At the very least it suggests that Beshear has room to fall over the campaign because there's no way he is going to win by that much. And that's not just for the sake of Beshear being re-elected over a whack-job but also because I hope Kentucky can retain its predictive streak of electing a Governor of the same party that wins the next presidential election. A lot of bellwethers and predictive indicators have lost that status over the past few election cycles (like Valencia and Vigo Counties) but I want this one to maintain that status.

[Progressive Pessimist]

there's no way he is going to win by that much

Imagine if he does though, imagine! Kentucky bellwether, manifest it!

It would definitely be impressive. We can only hope.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is all he has? Cameron seriously just screams lame. He just doesn't have the juice.

https://twitter.com/DanielCameronAG/status/1704528188989182090

Cameron needs to touch bluegrass.

(I've been waiting to use that one)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Anecdotally: I have been driving around the state recently and seen probably hundreds of Beshear signs. In cities, suburbs, rural areas, small towns alike. Not a single Cameron sign. Some of these Beshear signs are even next to Trump signs.

Now you might say that yard signs don't mean much, that liberals/Democrats are more likely to be politically engaged anyway, etc. (Although that doesn't explain the ones next to Trump signs.) But all I can say is that, driving through Ohio and Michigan in October 2016, that's when I started to get really worried that Trump could win because I saw Trump sign after Trump sign and no Hillary signs. Seems the enthusiasm is on Beshear's side, and even Cameron's Republican voters by and large aren't thrilled with him. Not saying they won't come out to vote for him, but I am increasingly doubting it will be enough. At this point I now expect Beshear to win by a significantly bigger margin than last time, if not by the landslide margin some polls are showing.

I'm actually valuing anecdotes like this way more than polls at this point, assuming they're coming from reliable people. Back in 2020 it was little things like this that were hints that Trump was still in the race in spite of what the polls were saying.

What kind of specific things are you referring to?

Little things like yard signs, the fact that the entire country seemed to expect it to be close in 2020, reports from people who actually live in a certain area about what the average person there believes. I remember there was a Maine avatar that said back in the summer of 2020 that he didn't know who these polls were reaching because it seemed to him like Sarah Gideon was running a terrible campaign for the state. If it's coming from someone who seems reasonable, that stuff means way more to me than whatever the media says.

Wbrocks ended up massively vindicated when he was insisting on what he was seeing on the ground versus the media narratives and polling. So I'm with you on this now after 2022.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Anecdotally: I have been driving around the state recently and seen probably hundreds of Beshear signs. In cities, suburbs, rural areas, small towns alike. Not a single Cameron sign. Some of these Beshear signs are even next to Trump signs.

Now you might say that yard signs don't mean much, that liberals/Democrats are more likely to be politically engaged anyway, etc. (Although that doesn't explain the ones next to Trump signs.) But all I can say is that, driving through Ohio and Michigan in October 2016, that's when I started to get really worried that Trump could win because I saw Trump sign after Trump sign and no Hillary signs. Seems the enthusiasm is on Beshear's side, and even Cameron's Republican voters by and large aren't thrilled with him. Not saying they won't come out to vote for him, but I am increasingly doubting it will be enough. At this point I now expect Beshear to win by a significantly bigger margin than last time, if not by the landslide margin some polls are showing.

I'm actually valuing anecdotes like this way more than polls at this point, assuming they're coming from reliable people. Back in 2020 it was little things like this that were hints that Trump was still in the race in spite of what the polls were saying.

What kind of specific things are you referring to?

Little things like yard signs, the fact that the entire country seemed to expect it to be close in 2020, reports from people who actually live in a certain area about what the average person there believes. I remember there was a Maine avatar that said back in the summer of 2020 that he didn't know who these polls were reaching because it seemed to him like Sarah Gideon was running a terrible campaign for the state. If it's coming from someone who seems reasonable, that stuff means way more to me than whatever the media says.

Wbrocks ended up massively vindicated when he was insisting on what he was seeing on the ground versus the media narratives and polling. So I'm with you on this now after 2022.

It depends. In 2021, he also claimed multiple times that Ciattarelli's campaign was somehow totally invisible despite that not being the case at all.

Well, he isn't from New Jersey. I'm not saying that wbrocks is infallible, just that his insight into his own state might have its merits.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Beshear is still favored, everybody calm down. He is an incumbent, apparently popular, rarely polling worse than 49%, and reliant on a different coalition than Louisiana Democrats are.

The only real question is how close it will or won't be. I'm still expecting something like Beshear+4 or so.

[Progressive Pessimist]

My worry with Beshear is that pollsters are correctly estimating his support in polling (47-50%) while severely underestimating Cameron, like what happened in Louisiana. In fact, pollsters in Kentucky have a history of doing that. KY 2014, KY 2015 Governors, KY senate 2016, KY Senate 2020, for example. KY Senate 2022 polling (55-39 Paul vs the result of 38.19-61.8 for Paul).

I mean, even if that were the case, most pollsters have had Beshear around 50%.

That's what's standing out to me as well. And Cameron has never exceeded 47%.

Say what you will about the Louisiana gubernatorial election polling, but they did come close to capturing the percentage of the vote that Wilson ended up with.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Morning Consult's new Q3 ratings are out and Beshear has a 60/35 approval rating, including 58/31 among Independents and 43/53 among Republicans

No way he loses with those numbers

Does it seem strange to everyone that there's a huge gap between governors' approval ratings right now and Biden's?

Seems like people are saying "things are good in my state but not in America"

This seems to be the case to me too. Which is just baffling. I don't know how the layperson distinguishes what is which politicians' responsibility anymore.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Cameron wins, how much momentum do you think that gives the GOP heading into 2024?

Apparently more than if Beshear wins for Democrats.

It's pretty rich, isn't it? How Republucans doing well in next week's elections signal doom for the Democratic Party, but if Democrats have a good night next week...well, it doesn't mean anything, because the Trump voters will make up for that when he's on the ballot, or whatever.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Can this election just be over, for f***'s sake. What went from a surprisingly lackluster campaign is now to the level of contention of last year's midterms, all because of f***ing Emerson.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Can this election just be over, for f***'s sake. What went from a surprisingly lackluster campaign is now to the level of contention of last year's midterms, all because of f***ing Emerson.

You’re saying that if Emerson never did that poll the race would look different?

The very recent discussion around this race would.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Beshear looks headed for a win but has no coattails.  All the other GOP candidates are up by big double digits.

Sure, but that's not a surprise at all.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Beshear looks headed for a win but has no coattails.  All the other GOP candidates are up by big double digits.

Sure, but that's not a surprise at all.

Not a surprise but it shows the limits of some of his electoral reach.  And it doesn't bode well for the future of the state Democratic Party.

Well yeah, Beshear will probably be the last Democrat elected statewide, barring another Bevin perfect storm.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Beshear is to become the nominee in 2028, he needs to have credibility with black voters. That goes dor anyone who wants to be nominated. They're the bellwether in national Democratic primaries.

I'mnot saying he can't, just that it's something to seriously consider if last night does inspire him to become a national candidate down the line.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Beshear is to become the nominee in 2028, he needs to have credibility with black voters. That goes dor anyone who wants to be nominated. They're the bellwether in national Democratic primaries.

I'mnot saying he can't, just that it's something to seriously consider if last night does inspire him to become a national candidate down the line.

Beshear DOES have credibility with black voters. There's a reason he got Kim Jong-un numbers in Louisville and Lexington, despite Republicans nominating a black candidate themselves. (Which makes my racist grandfather's prediction that the "N-words" in those two cities would cause Cameron to win all the more laughable.)

Beshear, like Bill Clinton who governed a state with similar demographics to Kentucky, absolutely has a path to win over black voters nationally.

I'll take your word for it. 2028 will be interesting no matter what. It's insane how good the Democratic bench has become.