2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Progressive Pessimist]

Based on the combined vote margins in the deciding states (WI+GA+AZ), this was a closer election than 2016 (PA+WI+MI)!

This framing is not exactly accurate. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were the deciding states here because Biden crossed 270 with them before Arizona and Georgia were called. When you add up those three you get a margin of over 234,000 votes and that is really what decided this election.

That just isn't correct. If Biden had lost 20,000 votes in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan would have just pushed Biden over 270 before Arizona flipped to Trump and Georgia stayed Trump, pushing him back above 270. It doesn't matter what order the states are called in lol--all that matters is the eventual electoral college outcome. And a world where WI, AZ, and GA go Trump is a world where Trump wins. Thus, WI+AZ+GA is the Biden margin of victory.

That's how I see it too. Judging an entire election with many facets to it by how the tipping point went is really arbitrary. The fact of the matter is that Biden won the popular vote with the most votes ever for a presidential candidate, managed to expand the map, and did exactly what he needed to do in the states he absolutely needed in an election with record turnout that resulted in him getting as many electoral votes as Trump's "blowout" from 2016. Expectations may not have been met due to the polling distorting the reality of the race, but it was still a win in the end, and it was one that very clearly rejected Trump.

Honestly, the fact that Biden's victory is something that can be debated in spite of the popular vote win really shows how stupid the Electoral College is as a system. How individual states vote really shouldn't matter.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So while Trump cam request a recount in Wisconsin and Bill Stepiem said the campaign would do so, Wisconsin just quotes the cost Trump would have to pay: $7.9 million.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/11/16/joe-biden-trump-election-live-updates/#link-JJOD6CC6QFE4FAMYNYUMN45CG4

The Trump campaign probably simply doesn't have this money. Not that it matters because it's clear a recount wouldn't change anything.

He could still try. His cultists will still probably shell out for it. Trump can't resist conducting a few more grifts before he finally leaves office.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1328483862490574849

Here are more details on that race.  It was decided by 10 votes, and there were 139 ballot discrepancies.

Clark County commissioners have certified all the results of the general election — except in the race for the commission seat representing District C, where ballot discrepancies outnumber Democrat Ross Miller’s 10-vote victory and a special election will be held.

Clark County Registrar of Voters Joe Gloria reported to the commission on Monday that there were 139 ballot discrepancies in District C, and Miller defeated Republican opponent Stavros Anthony by only 10 votes out of 153,162 cast. As a result of the discrepancies, the commission voted not to certify the District C results and instead call Gloria back to its first December meeting to present a plan for a special election.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/clark-county-calls-for-re-vote-in-commission-race-decided-by-10-ballots-discrepancies-outnumber-victory-margin

So major!

[Progressive Pessimist]

I love the whole "thousands of votes found in Georgia" line that Republicans are using now. I thought "finding votes" was bad!

Here's Kayleigh McEnany making an ass out of herself too with this rhetoric:

https://twitter.com/kayleighmcenany/status/1329170719972990979

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1329557156400599041?s=20

Apparently the judge was a Trump appointee and Federalist Society member.

I don't think anyone should be too worried about what happens if somehow this does go to SCOTUS. I bet even Barrett rules against him.

My real concern right now is the dangerous precedent the actions of Trump and the GOP is setting for the future. Increasingly we only have one political party that is actually "democratic" in any sense of the word. That should not be good no matter what your ideology is.

Don't give the GOP Judges (hacks) too much credit.  Most of them will cheat on the margins like a Bush v. Gore situation.  But you're right, they won't touch this.  This election isn't close.  Pulling something would be too blatant and corrupt even for them.

That's why, even though this election was from ideal for Biden and the Democratic Party, we still lucked out.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/TiknisArts/status/1329936404785360898

I've been very hard on ticket-splitting voters this year, and I still will be, but their presence has probably been the main cause of statewide Republicans in Biden states resisting the Trump campaign f***ery more so compared to Washington Republicans. Many Biden voters in their states are the same voters that voted for them too and they know it. Betraying the will of those voters would only end up backfiring on statewide politicians. That's the real calculation behind this. It's just how Republicans think. It's still cynical and self-serving, but for once it's these Republicans' self-interest aligning with the nation's interests, and that's for the best.

[Progressive Pessimist]

With the certification of PA and MI on Monday (or next week), Trump can basically call it quits.

Can? Yes. Should? Yes. Will? Not until he is dragged out of the White House.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump has always surrounded himself with nut-jobs and weirdos, and he only realizes it now? Well, how he feels about his legal team is how the world and >51% of the country feels about him.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's a bit funny to see how Biden got a higher vote share than Obama 2012 but everyone's treating this election like a nail biter but the 2012 one like a solid win

Pretty reasonable given how the mail-in ballots were heavily Democratic and came in relatively late, thus giving all of us Democrats election night flashback syndrome from 2016.

It's also understandable since Biden won the battlegrounds he needed very narrowly while Obama won all of them, except Florida, by the low to mid single digits at least. Going state by state in those specific ones and with a similar national popular vote margin. Obama's performance was really exceptional and that's also while accounting for the fact that he did worse almost everywhere in the country in comparison to 2008!

I don't like the way people seem to be trying to undermine Biden's success in this election, but there is no doubt that it vastly pales compared to both of Obama's. Maybe it's unfair to be comparing them though.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's a bit funny to see how Biden got a higher vote share than Obama 2012 but everyone's treating this election like a nail biter but the 2012 one like a solid win

Pretty reasonable given how the mail-in ballots were heavily Democratic and came in relatively late, thus giving all of us Democrats election night flashback syndrome from 2016.

It's also understandable since Biden won the battlegrounds he needed very narrowly while Obama won all of them, except Florida, by the low to mid single digits at least. Going state by state in those specific ones and with a similar national popular vote margin. Obama's performance was really exceptional and that's also while accounting for the fact that he did worse almost everywhere in the country in comparison to 2008!

I don't like the way people seem to be trying to undermine Biden's success in this election, but there is no doubt that it vastly pales compared to both of Obama's. Maybe it's unfair to be comparing them though.

Biden did flip AZ and GA though, however narrowly. Two states Obama never won, hadn't been won since Bill Clinton in the 90s. In the end, he flipped everything he was "expected" to except NC and FL; the first was very close and the second has never been trusted, especially after 2018. If you just showed people a year ago the final map, including margins, they would consider it a resounding success.

Really, I think it's very clear that the biggest reason people found it underwhelming is the late ballot-counting left things hanging and feeling uncertain for so long. That said, it was possible to do the math and figure out the likely result on election night/early the morning after; by 5 AM November 4, I was calling the 306 map, as were several others in this very thread. It just didn't feel quite the same as seeing everything called by the networks and light up on their maps in a single night like it did in 2012.

Very true. And it could have been that way if Republican state legislatures didn't opt to count mail-in votes after all others were counted.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1331751453908742145

I don't really know what Lee Zeldin is trying to say here. It sounds like he's having cake and eating too with this and that actually makes the statement even more infuriating than if it were entirely supportive of Trump. F** Zeldin and his stupid face, I wish he was capable of losing.

Texas is not a purple state.... yet!

I mean, you could definitely call a state Trump won by 5.6 "Purple."

Texas is at least moving in that direction. Ohio on the other hand absolutely isn't and not only lost its bellwether status but also its status as something anywhere even close to a purple state.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Hahaha! Ducey's future in the GOP is over!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not all Hispanic swings can be explained by 'socialism scary', the simple fact is that the racial divide is shrinking and the class divide is growing. It is simply a swing among poorer minorities towards Republicans, not anything to do with fear of socialism.

That may be one explanation, but I don't think there is only one explanation for the Hispanic swing. It's often noted that they are not a monolithic demographic and that's showing itself to be very true this year.

https://twitter.com/ryanjreilly/status/1333439836959744002

Raffensperger has shown himself to be shockingly based for a Georgia Republican.

Everybody has a breaking point.

It also helps when you're not in Washington and have to be re-elected by the voters Trump wants to disregard.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1333912589538127881

How embarrassing for the outgoing President!