WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Democrats are the most incompetent political party in world history. Of course, it's not likely to matter for this particular race; GCB polling indicates a red wave, and the Democrats cannot win WI-SEN in a red wave.

That's exactly why I don't care who gets nominated.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So is Ron Johnson going to run or he's delaying his decision to be an attention whore?

"I would have announced sooner but Antifa took my announcement statement before I could make a copy!"

[Progressive Pessimist]

Do not assume Ron Johnson definitely wants out. Senators often leave saying 'the gridlock/rudeness/etc. has become too much', but few opine that their legacies as failures.

"I'd rather be somewhere else," can very easily lead into a culture war refrain of "I'd rather be somewhere else, but duty calls and Biden wants to vaccinate your children." Indeed, in his interview, he says he admires George Washington because he didn't want to be president, which gives him an opportunity to present himself as some kind of reluctant hero.

For Johnson, being the nutcase he is, it's probably the reverse-the gridlock is why he is staying.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think a lot of people are forgetting how Ron Johnson managed to win in 2016 after being abandoned by the GOP nationally & while running against someone who was seen as a top tier recruit for the democrats.

I certainly am not. He is hands down the favorite if he runs again, which I expect he will.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think a lot of people are forgetting how Ron Johnson managed to win in 2016 after being abandoned by the GOP nationally & while running against someone who was seen as a top tier recruit for the democrats.

I certainly am not. He is hands down the favorite if he runs again, which I expect he will.

He's definitely going to win if he runs again, but I don't know if he will.

Hopefully he doesn't. Democratic chances to pick this seat up increase significantly if that's the case.

[Progressive Pessimist]

RoJo's culture warrior shtick has always been fairly performative (with all sides buying into it), so I’m not at all surprised by this. He’s about as much of a 'Trumpist' as Jon Tester is a 'populist.'

And that actually makes him even more reprehensible.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yall sound like the people saying Cunninghams scandal wouldn't matter. Johnson has always been quite conservative and outspoken but it wasn't until recently(2020ish) that he really started putting his foot in his mouth. I highly doubt these comments are going to play well in a swing state. (Of course, if Barnes is the nominee it doesn't really matter)

It didn't.

Biden couldn't generate the enthusiasm needed to flip the state, which in turn would've propelled him over, or even given him the goodwill to outrun him.

You could've had  Bowl of Frosted Flakes (D) vs. Punch in the Nose (R) in this race, and as long as Biden couldn't win the entire vote by at least 6, the Punch in the Nose was going to win no matter what.

I actually agree. Cunningham wasn't winning if Biden wasn't either, and vice-versa.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Is there any word on Ron Johnson running or not?

He is taking so long decide that maybe we'll get lucky and he'll miss the filing deadline. I would rather this be an open race for the sake of Democratic chances to pick this seat up.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Barnes may be a bit insulated from the "radical left" attacks since he was Lt. Gov under a pretty typical moderate Dem governor, much like with Fetterman.

It's harder to attack someone as far left or extreme when they've been serving under a moderate left governor for 4 years, and as with Wolf, Evers has been pretty unassuming. Hardly 'radical'

Right, but Barnes is black.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/ron-johnson-calls-for-turning-social-security-medicare-into-discretionary-spending-programs/article_5d9457a6-fd52-5c7f-9dfb-37cc0466a1c9.html

I really doubt the elderly in Wisconsin would like this at all, this is an absolutely toxic position to take.  

Attacking entitlements before an election can be a death sentence.

Did Johnson hold different positions in 2010 and 2016?

For sure not helpful, I just remain skeptical whether this unseats him in an environment like this is probably going to be.

But what is that environment though? People need to stop assuming this is going to be some automatic red wave when this year seems incredibly evident that a lot of these races are going to be more contextual and situational than overarching.

Well, 2016 was still kind of neutral year and RoJo went on winning regardless by a few points, contrary to polls. For sure I'm not in the "muh 2016 and 2020 polls were off" camp, though fundamentals tend to favor him. Even if we assume 2022 will only be a red ripple or somewhat neutral. Biden just barely won WI and even Walker, in the 2018 blue wave, still came very close. And Barnes, as much as I'd like to see him winning, is not exactly as strong as Fetterman for example.

Just don't want to get my hopes up early. Definitely would enjoy to see Johnson losing. He's a horrible senator.

I get that. Johnson has incumbency going for him which is powerful. It just really feels as if people are incredibly overestimating him as a candidate, even in a harder year for Ds.

Part of the reason why is the disappointment of 2016 where Feingold lost against Johnson despite the polls and it wasn't even a nailbiter. Johnson overperformed Trump in terms of margin, although Trump's good performance in WI definitely did help Johnson in 2016.

Yes, definitely. While I would still say Johnson is clearly favored by analyzing this race objectively, the 2016 result was easily the most disappointing, crushing Senate race I’ve seen in my lifetime. Even if polls consistently showed Barnes up by 5, I would not get my hopes up again. I’d much rather overestimate Johnson and end up with egg on my face than to be optimistic about the possibility of Johnson losing only for him to win again.

Hey! That's my exact philosophy towards most things in life!

I should sue you for impersonating me!

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/ron-johnson-calls-for-turning-social-security-medicare-into-discretionary-spending-programs/article_5d9457a6-fd52-5c7f-9dfb-37cc0466a1c9.html

I really doubt the elderly in Wisconsin would like this at all, this is an absolutely toxic position to take.  

Attacking entitlements before an election can be a death sentence.

Did Johnson hold different positions in 2010 and 2016?

For sure not helpful, I just remain skeptical whether this unseats him in an environment like this is probably going to be.

But what is that environment though? People need to stop assuming this is going to be some automatic red wave when this year seems incredibly evident that a lot of these races are going to be more contextual and situational than overarching.

Well, 2016 was still kind of neutral year and RoJo went on winning regardless by a few points, contrary to polls. For sure I'm not in the "muh 2016 and 2020 polls were off" camp, though fundamentals tend to favor him. Even if we assume 2022 will only be a red ripple or somewhat neutral. Biden just barely won WI and even Walker, in the 2018 blue wave, still came very close. And Barnes, as much as I'd like to see him winning, is not exactly as strong as Fetterman for example.

Just don't want to get my hopes up early. Definitely would enjoy to see Johnson losing. He's a horrible senator.

I get that. Johnson has incumbency going for him which is powerful. It just really feels as if people are incredibly overestimating him as a candidate, even in a harder year for Ds.

Part of the reason why is the disappointment of 2016 where Feingold lost against Johnson despite the polls and it wasn't even a nailbiter. Johnson overperformed Trump in terms of margin, although Trump's good performance in WI definitely did help Johnson in 2016.

Yes, definitely. While I would still say Johnson is clearly favored by analyzing this race objectively, the 2016 result was easily the most disappointing, crushing Senate race I’ve seen in my lifetime. Even if polls consistently showed Barnes up by 5, I would not get my hopes up again. I’d much rather overestimate Johnson and end up with egg on my face than to be optimistic about the possibility of Johnson losing only for him to win again.

Hey! That's my exact philosophy towards most things in life!

I should sue you for impersonating me!

Sorry, I’ll be sure to add a footnote next time.

Hehehe, I appreciate that, but it's all good.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://host2.adimpact.com/admo/viewer/2d7c9a36-8132-467d-8aab-77346e40ffc6

This ad of Barnes praising the squad and talking about driver license for illegal immigrants is why I always thought he was longshot against Johnson. This is a Bernie acolyte running in a state Biden barely won. Johnson will make this race a referendum on Barnes and he will win in the end.

Yes, Barnes was not the vehicle capable of taking advantage of Johnson’s weaknesses and extremism because he has his weaknesses of his own on that front. Maybe I’m wrong, but I expect Johnson to scare enough people to win again.

So voters are okay with Johnsons extremism but not a few of Barnes more liberal talking points? Come on now.

Unfortunately, the media has an insane double standard when it comes to how extreme Democrats are versus Republicans. That's what will allow Johnson to win a third term. That, and the national environment.

About that national environment thing...

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1558095352485511170

If that indeed becomes true in November - and it's still a big if - Dobbs will just be one of three major reasons in my opinion. Equally important would be inflation cooling down with gas prices further dropping and Republicans pandering so much to the extreme that it scares off swing voters and energizes the Democratic base, including progressives uneasy with Biden not getting more stuff passed.

I would say that all of that fits into a theme of a weakened Republican message. Without the economy to run against as effectively all they're left with is pandering to the Trump base, which some were already doing when they didn't have to!

[Progressive Pessimist]

It would be interesting if Mandela Barnes pulls through. Do you think there will be a lot of Michels/Barnes split ticket voters or no? I still think Tim Michels is the favorite to win even if Mandela Barnes pills through, as Tony Evers is a very weak governor who didn’t accomplish much.

There were Baldwin/Walker voters in 2018, so why shouldn't there be this year? No matter how baffling we may find them, ticket-splitters exist.

Usually I would say that I'll take the Senate race going our way over the Governor's race since Senate elections affect the whole nation, but with election deniers like Michels, Mastriano, and Lake on the ballot this year those elections have national implications that are just as big. No major statewide Republican can win in any of those three states if we are to salvage this country.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Why are Republicans trying to provoke seniors so much this year?

[Progressive Pessimist]

For lack of anything else to watch last night, I ended up catching Barnes doing a short interview with Ali Velshi last night on MSNBC, and from the sounds of it he has a really excellent message going. He is already pouncing on Ron Johnson's retiree comments and trying to paint him as someone who, in his 12 years in Washington, has only ever helped his dark money interests. I'm really impressed with how he has been campaigning so far...I just don't know if I trust Wisconsin to be receptive to it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1570851308621664259?s=20&t=YOWLN3zJvr-n9NK...

Yep. That makes sense. That good old Wisconsin dark money will deliver for Johnson once again.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Barnes raises $20M. He still has a chance - but it's all about what he does with that money.

https://twitter.com/lauren_chou/status/1577631553072627712

It's too late. That money would have been helpful in late August. There was clearly an opening after he won the primary, before the dark money came in and defined him, but that was his only shot.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Barnes raises $20M. He still has a chance - but it's all about what he does with that money.

https://twitter.com/lauren_chou/status/1577631553072627712

It's too late. That money would have been helpful in late August. There was clearly an opening after he won the primary, before the dark money came in and defined him, but that was his only shot.

Was he supposed to raise $20M in 2 weeks after the primary

Obviously that would have been difficult, I'm just saying that's what's needed to truly go toe-to-toe with Johnson and the dark money interests that are so influential in Wisconsin politics and prop him up. It's not an indictment of Barnes as much as it is an indictment of the messy state of our campaign finance laws.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's good to hear that Barnes seems to have held his own in last night's debate, but I am certain that it doesn't matter. At best maybe Barnes can lose by two or three points instead of four or five.

Then again, maybe it does because apparently Masters not self-combusting on stage in the Arizona debate means he is "back in it." So logically that should apply to Barnes as well given how many Republicans posters have made that point, no?

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/DanielBice/status/1580661289784733696?t=wJokaoTpYE9Sr0SH6kA6...

I hope Democratic primary voters learn their lesson after this guy loses by 10 points.

I blame Ron Kind more for not taking the risk and jumping into this race instead of just retiring.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/TheOtherMandela/status/1581052567756234753

Obama campaigning for Barnes

I'm glad Obama is finally hitting the campaign trail. He could help get some low propensity loyal Democrats to turn out, especially for candidates more inspiring than McAuliffe and Murphy last year alongside even bigger stakes.

Now, his efforts in helping Barnes might not amount to much. But maybe he could help Evers at least, who does still have a chance to win.

I also hope to see him campaign elsewhere. I know he is also going to Georgia but he might be of at least some benefit to the campaigns in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, and Pennsylvania too. It definitely couldn't hurt.

[Progressive Pessimist]

While I would also categorize this race as this year's CO-2014, PA-2016, FL-2018, and NC-2020; it is different in the sense that Barnes was written off while the Democrat in all the others looked favored. I will apologize for being one of those who underestimated him and I am now frustrated that it was such a close loss. This being the 52nd Senate seat for Democrats in the place of one of the worst battleground state Senators would have been incredible. I don't know what could have gone differently and whether the problem was Barnes himself, Johnson, outside spending by GOP groups, or spending problems on the part of the Democrats' part; but I am still impressed at how Wisconsin went overall this year. I mean, we were the ones who were underestimated here this year. That's a massive victory in itself.

By the way, Barnes looked favored in late August, if we remember, and honestly, polling at that point, which looked to be the Democrats' peak was probably a more accurate picture of what actually ended up happening on Tuesday. Just something to note.