MD-GOV 2022: Can Maryland GOP win a third gubernatorial term in 2022?

[Progressive Pessimist]

The answer to this thread title question evidently is a big, fat no! Cox might just be the worst possible candidate for Maryland today. The diametric opposite of the state he is trying to win in-a state that has become a microcosm for the Democratic Party. He is Mastriano in more hostile territory.

I had this election as being strong likely D, out of caution if Schultz were nominated and everything went right for her in a good environment, but this is titanium safe D now. I completely agree with everyone else saying that.

The Maryland GOP (and Massachusetts GOP too) really have become gluttons for punishment, haven't they? Even with the MD-6 election.

Moore will be an excellent Governor and could definitely be a sneaky POTUS candidate some day.

If he does end up winning and can prove to be an effective and popular Governor he might as well be an automatic front-runner in an open primary: he is young, handsome, a veteran, a person of color, has links to the black community, can have appeal to both progressives and establishment interests, and by that point will have had executive experience. He has some minor controversies regarding his book, but I don't know how much that will harm him going forward. At the very least he would also make a good running mate too. He is very likely to appear on a presidential ticket in the future, period, in one way or another.

He might end up on the Obama-like trajectory that Democratic politicians like Eric Adams, Cory Booker, and Anthony Brown all wanted to be on.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think it should be noted that some outlets still haven't projected Moore as the winner and Perez insists on not conceding until more votes are counted, which I guess is fair, but I still doubt it will matter. 

Congratulations to Wes Moore on winning this one and this is not a criticism of him as he did not come up with the rules for the election but it seems a bit ridiculous that 66% of voters chose someone else but he gets the nomination because he got 30,000 more votes.  I'm not the biggest fan of runoffs but in a situation like this, I get it.

I totally get where you're coming from, but in fairness to Moore it's not his fault there were so many candidates in this race. Hell, Baker, who withdrew, came in fourth place. Actually, I'm wondering if Baker dropping out is really what helped Moore come out ahead. Moore's margin in Prince George's probably would have been weaker had he stayed in and Franchot or Perez would possibly have benefited from that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Time to suggest a punny topic title change!

"Wes is Moore."

[Progressive Pessimist]

How much do people think Moore will win by? I heard he's talking Cox seriously and intends to campaign like he has a serious chance.

I think Moore ends up with about 60-65 percent of the vote.

20 points as his absolute bedrock.

[Progressive Pessimist]

How much do people think Moore will win by? I heard he's talking Cox seriously and intends to campaign like he has a serious chance.

I think Moore ends up with about 60-65 percent of the vote.

20 points as his absolute bedrock.

You think Cox hits 40? I doubt it.

Not exactly. Cox's ceiling is probably about 38%, but if the environment is really, really bad for Democrats maybe he could hit 40%. I doubt it though.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Cook moves this race to Solid D and they won't budge on OH and Sabato still has WI Lean R LOL, there hasn't been a single GE ooll

It's Lean D but I think it's gonna be close 52)47

I don't think Cox is going to break 40 percent. No way he replicates anything close to Hogan's numbers.

Olawakandi rarely makes sense, and usually it's not worth trying to clarify anything he is trying to say, but I think he was referring to the Ryan-Vance race as 52-47 and lean D.

While I'm on the subject, if I could make one wish that would encompass everything I want to happen in this year's midterms it would simply be for Olawakandi's predictions to come true. He must live in such a blissful state of mind...

[Progressive Pessimist]

Cook moves this race to Solid D and they won't budge on OH and Sabato still has WI Lean R LOL, there hasn't been a single GE ooll

It's Lean D but I think it's gonna be close 52)47

I don't think Cox is going to break 40 percent. No way he replicates anything close to Hogan's numbers.

Olawakandi rarely makes sense, and usually it's not worth trying to clarify anything he is trying to say, but I think he was referring to the Ryan-Vance race as 52-47 and lean D.

While I'm on the subject, if I could make one wish that would encompass everything I want to happen in this year's midterms it would simply be for Olawakandi's predictions to come true. He must live in such a blissful state of mind...

Well being God is fun.

Anyway, I'm surprised Moore won by so much. Polls had Franchot in the lead until about a week before and then Perez was in the lead.

I know that I sound like a broken record in noting how Maryland has become a microcosm of the Democratic Primary, but just like how national primaries are determined almost entirely by black voters-that is a similar phenomenon here, from what I can tell.

I am by no means an expert on Maryland politics, but it seems like Moore carved out a niche among the state's black voters and won due to running up the numbers in the state's counties with the highest black populations-Prince George's especially. He has an inspiring backstory that he ran on and it seemed to work in garnering more enthusiasm than the other black candidates like Baker (who in dropping out probably gave Moore an even bigger boost) and King. Couple that with high profile endorsements and a divided opposition, and I can definitely see why he won. Though it was hardly the blowout it looked like before the absentee ballots were counted.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Cook moves this race to Solid D and they won't budge on OH and Sabato still has WI Lean R LOL, there hasn't been a single GE ooll

It's Lean D but I think it's gonna be close 52)47

I don't think Cox is going to break 40 percent. No way he replicates anything close to Hogan's numbers.

Olawakandi rarely makes sense, and usually it's not worth trying to clarify anything he is trying to say, but I think he was referring to the Ryan-Vance race as 52-47 and lean D.

While I'm on the subject, if I could make one wish that would encompass everything I want to happen in this year's midterms it would simply be for Olawakandi's predictions to come true. He must live in such a blissful state of mind...

Well being God is fun.

Anyway, I'm surprised Moore won by so much. Polls had Franchot in the lead until about a week before and then Perez was in the lead.

I know that I sound like a broken record in noting how Maryland has become a microcosm of the Democratic Primary, but just like how national primaries are determined almost entirely by black voters-that is a similar phenomenon here, from what I can tell.

I am by no means an expert on Maryland politics, but it seems like Moore carved out a niche among the state's black voters and won due to running up the numbers in the state's counties with the highest black populations-Prince George's especially. He has an inspiring backstory that he ran on and it seemed to work in garnering more enthusiasm than the other black candidates like Baker (who in dropping out probably gave Moore an even bigger boost) and King. Couple that with high profile endorsements and a divided opposition, and I can definitely see why he won. Though it was hardly the blowout it looked like before the absentee ballots were counted.

What's particuarly impressive is that he was able to unite a lot of unique African American communities in Maryland. Maryland's black population is socioeconomically very diverse as you have some really rough areas in Baltimore and some very wealthy black communities just outside DC. Also just the fact Baltimore and greater DC are very distinct.

Excellent point. And, again, I think it goes back to his biography. He has a real rags-to-riches story that all social classes can probably relate to and find inspiring.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Primary turnout update

D: 632K (69%)
R: 287K (31%)
= 919K total

Moore should win the election easily if he doesn't take the victory for granted.

He can take it for granted and still easily win. Republicans destroyed any chance they might have had by nominating Cox.

He shouldn't. No election should be taken for granted.

Agreed. But he has already made it clear that he isn't. This race should be low on the list of elections to worry about this year.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Cox over/under 35% at this rate?

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1557133307577602056

I don't see this going over well in Montgomery County. Could Moore exceed 90% there!? I expect something like that in Prince George's.